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Afturelding vs Grindavik Result & Analysis

Date: 07/08/2026
Time: 19:15
Final 4-1
Afturelding
Afturelding
Vs
54%
20%
26%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Grindavik
Grindavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table
Match preview & prediction

Afturelding hosts Grindavik in the Iceland: 1. Deild, with the home side boasting a 54% chance of winning, while Grindavik has a 26% chance of taking the three points. The model predicts a home win, the most likely outcome, with a 54% chance of Afturelding emerging victorious. The expected total number of goals is 4.1, with the most likely scoreline being 2-1, occurring with a probability of 8.1%.

Afturelding has shown strength at home, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per game against weaker opponents, while conceding 1.0 goal on average. In contrast, Grindavik has struggled away from home, scoring 1.8 goals per game against stronger opponents, but conceding 3.6 goals on average.

The model's selections are Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and BTTS Yes, with probabilities of 92.4%, 78.0%, and 75.0%, respectively. These selections offer an edge of 5%, 7%, and 13%, respectively. The home win percentage stands at 54%, the draw percentage at 20%, and the away win percentage at 26%.

Results analysis

The win extends Afturelding's run, which now stands at four in their last five matches. The final score was 4-1, a result that validated the predicted outcome of Home win, which carried a pre-match probability of 54%. The model's selection, Home win, was correct. The model's call on Over 1.5 goals also came in, with a probability of 92.4%, while Over 2.5 goals also hit with a 78% chance. BTTS Yes was another successful selection, with a 75% probability.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Afturelding win✓ Hit
54.0%
Avg Implied 67.7% · @ 1.34
Edge
-13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.38
Betano
1.38
Dafabet
1.37
SBO
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Draw✗ Miss
20.5%
Avg Implied 17.7% · @ 5.13
Edge
+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
6.19
1xBet
5.70
Marathonbet
5.70
BetVictor
5.25
Dafabet
5.20
Grindavik win✗ Miss
25.6%
Avg Implied 14.7% · @ 6.17
Edge
+10.9%
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
7.50
10Bet
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
6.50
Dafabet
6.20

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AftureldingAfturelding

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-604L05L32W61W52W31W61W32W11D14LA·VAL21/02H·THO25/02A·IR 29/03H·ÝMI03/04H·NJA13/05H·STJ10/06A·VÖL11/07H·LEI16/07A·FYL21/07A·THR29/07
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.001.932.331.671.672.20
vs Stronger (2)3.501.506.001.001.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.682.082.001.831.382.31
vs Weaker (3)3.671.002.501.006.001.00
Clean sheet %3% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrindavikGrindavik

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L00D20W00D11D45L21W00D02L10WA·IR 26/02A·KA 07/03A·ELL28/03H·KEF06/04A·IA 13/05A·NJA10/07A·GRO14/07H·IR 18/07A·VÖL24/07H·LEI29/07
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.202.331.172.081.222.50
vs Stronger (1)0.002.00--0.002.00
vs Similar (22)1.182.590.892.111.382.92
vs Weaker (7)1.431.572.002.001.001.25
Clean sheet %17% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%23%2%05%114%219%320%416%523%6+
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
92.4%
@ 1.06+5.1%
Under 1.5
7.6%
@ 7.26-5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
Under
Betfair
7.50
888Sport
7.50
1xBet
7.40
Marathonbet
7.40
Bet365
6.50
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
78.0%
@ 1.29+6.6%
Under 2.5
22.0%
@ 3.21-6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
Under
BetVictor
3.40
1xBet
3.34
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.30
888Sport
3.30
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
59.1%
@ 1.77+6.8%
Under 3.5
40.9%
@ 1.94-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
1.88
Bet365
1.83
Betano
1.78
10Bet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Under
Pinnacle
2.03
10Bet
2.00
Marathonbet
1.97
1xBet
1.96
Superbet
1.95
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
75.0%
@ 1.48+12.7%
No
25.0%
@ 2.45-12.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
No
Betfair
2.55
BetVictor
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Marathonbet
2.47
William Hil
2.45

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.1%@ 7.76+2.6%
1-1
7.3%@ 10.22+3.1%
2-2
6.8%@ 12.75+3.5%
3-1
6.6%@ 8.89+1.8%
1-2
5.6%@ 17.56+3.1%
3-2
5.6%@ 13.89+2.5%
2-0
4.8%@ 8.92-0.0%
4-1 ✓
4.0%@ 12.62+0.6%
Afturelding goals ↓
Grindavik goals →
01234
02.3%2.1%2.3%1.3%0.5%
13.3%7.3%5.6%3.1%1.3%
24.8%8.1%6.8%3.8%1.6%
33.9%6.6%5.6%3.1%1.3%
42.4%4.0%3.4%1.9%0.8%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Afturelding goals (down), columns = Grindavik goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Afturelding
2.22
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Njardvik
2.00
Fylkir
1.78
Völsungur
1.67
IR Reykjavik
1.62
HK Kopavogur
1.62
Grindavik
1.40
Leiknir R.
1.12
Grotta
0.89
Vestri
0.75
Ægir
0.00
Afturelding is 0.82 points better than Grindavik in terms of average points per game (2.22 vs 1.40).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Afturelding
3.33
HK Kopavogur
3.12
Fylkir
2.78
Throttur Reykjavik
2.75
Njardvik
2.44
Leiknir R.
1.88
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Grotta
1.56
Völsungur
1.56
Grindavik
1.50
Vestri
1.00
Ægir
0.86
Afturelding is 1.83 goals better than Grindavik in terms of goals scored per game (3.33 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Throttur Reykjavik
1.38
Afturelding
1.44
IR Reykjavik
1.62
Leiknir R.
1.75
Grotta
1.78
Fylkir
1.89
Njardvik
1.89
Völsungur
1.89
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Grindavik
2.20
Vestri
2.62
Ægir
4.57
Afturelding is 0.76 goals better than Grindavik in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 2.20).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AftureldingAfturelding

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L02L00D31W10W01L41W21W00D03LA·VAL21/02H·THO25/02A·IR 29/03H·ÝMI03/04H·NJA13/05H·STJ10/06A·VÖL11/07H·LEI16/07A·FYL21/07A·THR29/07
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.730.600.800.530.67
vs Stronger (2)1.500.503.001.000.000.00
vs Similar (25)0.320.760.330.830.310.69
vs Weaker (3)2.000.671.000.504.001.00
Clean sheet %40% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrindavikGrindavik

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D00D00D00D01L33D11D00D01L00DA·IR 26/02A·KA 07/03A·ELL28/03H·KEF06/04A·IA 13/05A·NJA10/07A·GRO14/07H·IR 18/07A·VÖL24/07H·LEI29/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.431.370.501.420.391.33
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.451.500.441.440.461.54
vs Weaker (7)0.431.000.671.330.250.75
Clean sheet %23% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AftureldingAfturelding

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L03L32W30W42W30W20W11D11D11DA·VAL21/02H·THO25/02A·IR 29/03H·ÝMI03/04H·NJA13/05H·STJ10/06A·VÖL11/07H·LEI16/07A·FYL21/07A·THR29/07
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.201.730.871.131.53
vs Stronger (2)2.001.003.000.001.002.00
vs Similar (25)1.361.321.671.001.081.62
vs Weaker (3)1.670.331.500.502.000.00
Clean sheet %33% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Grindavik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

GrindavikGrindavik

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L00D20W00D10W12L10W00D01L10WA·IR 26/02A·KA 07/03A·ELL28/03H·KEF06/04A·IA 13/05A·NJA10/07A·GRO14/07H·IR 18/07A·VÖL24/07H·LEI29/07
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.970.670.670.831.17
vs Stronger (1)0.001.00--0.001.00
vs Similar (22)0.731.090.440.670.921.38
vs Weaker (7)1.000.571.330.670.750.50
Clean sheet %50% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Grindavik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.592.4%1.06
Bet365
1.10
888Sport
1.08
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.03
+5.1%✓ Hit
Over 2.578.0%1.29
Bet365
1.36
Betano
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
888Sport
1.29
+6.6%✓ Hit
BTTS Yes75.0%1.48
Bet365
1.57
William Hil
1.50
888Sport
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
+12.7%✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (19)
€1m
AFT (17)
€1m
TR (19)
€1m
NJA (21)
€1m
FYL (17)
€1m
HK (19)
€1m
LR (18)
€1m
GRO (17)
€1m
IR (17)
€1m
VÖL (19)
€1m
ÆGI (14)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AFT (5)
€1m
VES (7)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
FYL (7)
€0m
TR (5)
€0m
NJA (7)
€0m
GRO (5)
€0m
IR (6)
€0m
ÆGI (3)
€0m
LR (4)
€0m
VÖL (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VES (6)
€0m
TR (6)
€0m
AFT (5)
€0m
NJA (5)
€0m
FYL (4)
€0m
VÖL (6)
€0m
ÆGI (5)
€0m
LR (5)
€0m
IR (4)
€0m
GRO (3)
€0m
HK (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
NJA (9)
€0m
LR (9)
€0m
AFT (7)
€0m
FYL (6)
€0m
TR (8)
€0m
HK (8)
€0m
GRO (9)
€0m
IR (7)
€0m
VÖL (9)
€0m
VES (6)
€0m
ÆGI (6)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
3
AFT wins
2
Draws
1
GRI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Afturelding vs Grindavik · H/A from AFT
DateH/AGameScore
30/07/24AGrindavik Vs AFT0-3
25/05/24HAFT Vs Grindavik1-1
10/08/23HAFT Vs Grindavik1-2
01/06/23AGrindavik Vs AFT0-3
21/07/22AGrindavik Vs AFT4-5
06/05/22HAFT Vs Grindavik1-1

AftureldingAfturelding

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/07/26AThrottur Reykjavik Vs AFT4-1
21/07/26AFylkir Vs AFT1-1
16/07/26HAFT Vs Leiknir R.3-2
11/07/26AVölsungur Vs AFT1-6
10/06/26HAFT Vs Stjarnan3-1
13/05/26HAFT Vs Njardvik5-2
03/04/26HAFT Vs Ýmir6-1
29/03/26AIR Reykjavik Vs AFT2-3
25/02/26HAFT Vs Thor Akureyri0-5
21/02/26AValur Reykjavik Vs AFT4-0

GrindavikGrindavik

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/07/26HGRI Vs Leiknir R.1-0
24/07/26AVölsungur Vs GRI2-0
18/07/26HGRI Vs IR Reykjavik0-0
14/07/26AGrotta Vs GRI1-2
10/07/26ANjardvik Vs GRI5-4
13/05/26AIA Akranes Vs GRI1-1
06/04/26HGRI Vs Keflavik0-0
28/03/26AEllidi Vs GRI0-2
07/03/26AKA Akureyri Vs GRI0-0
26/02/26AIR Reykjavik Vs GRI3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Afturelding
Afturelding
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDL1.48
HomeLWWWW1.92
AwayLWWDL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %42%56%28%
AVG goals3.463.683.24
Over 1.5 %82%88%76%
Over 2.5 %64%68%60%
Over 3.5 %46%52%40%
Scored1.862.361.36
Conceded1.601.321.88
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet22%28%16%
Corners---
Cards---
Grindavik
Grindavik
Iceland: 1. Deild
Recent: 3 Wins / 4 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.06
HomeLWDDW1.14
AwayWDLWL1.00
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %28%29%28%
AVG goals4.163.954.31
Over 1.5 %92%86%97%
Over 2.5 %76%81%72%
Over 3.5 %58%62%55%
Scored1.721.671.76
Conceded2.442.292.55
BTTS62%67%59%
Clean Sheet14%19%10%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AftureldingAfturelding920
67%
2.2
3013+17
4.8
100%
78%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1003.31.4
-
2NjardvikNjardvik918
67%
2.0
2217+5
4.3
89%
78%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.41.9
-
3Throttur ReykjavikThrottur Reykjavik816
62%
2.0
2211+11
4.1
88%
75%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.4
-
4FylkirFylkir916
56%
1.8
2517+8
4.7
100%
89%
78%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0002.81.9
-
5VölsungurVölsungur915
56%
1.7
1417-3
3.4
89%
56%
56%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
-
6GrindavikGrindavik1014
40%
1.4
1522-7
3.7
70%
60%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.52.2
-
7HK KopavogurHK Kopavogur813
50%
1.6
2516+9
5.1
100%
100%
75%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0003.12.0
-
8IR ReykjavikIR Reykjavik813
50%
1.6
1313+0
3.2
75%
62%
62%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.6
-
9Leiknir R.Leiknir R.89
38%
1.1
1514+1
3.6
88%
62%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.91.8
-
10GrottaGrotta98
22%
0.9
1416-2
3.3
89%
67%
44%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.61.8
-
11VestriVestri86
25%
0.8
821-13
3.6
88%
50%
38%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.02.6
-
12ÆgirÆgir70
0%
0.0
632-26
5.4
86%
71%
71%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.94.6
-
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →

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