Afturelding are the clear favourites, with the model rating a 63% chance of a home win and a 17% draw. The 20% away win probability is far lower, reflecting the home side’s advantage and the opponent’s weaker away form. The expected total of 4.7 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely total is 6+ goals, a 33% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Afturelding, with a 6.9% probability. Afturelding have scored an average of 1.67 goals and conceded 2.0 at home against similar opposition, while Njardvik average 2.09 goals scored and 1.64 conceded on the road. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (95.3%), Home over 0.5 goals (95.0%), Home +2 handicap (90.6%), Away under 3.5 goals (90.3%), Under 7.5 (89.5%), Over 2.5 (84.9%), Home or Away (82.8%), and Away over 0.5 goals (82.2%). The model’s selection favours a decisive home win.
Results analysis
Afturelding’s victory extended their recent winning run, and the final score of 5-2 confirmed the model’s prediction that the home side would triumph. The model had picked a home win with a 63% probability, and that call proved correct. Every suggested selection also materialised: Over 1.5 goals hit at 95.3%, Home over 0.5 goals at 95.0%, Home +2 handicap at 90.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 90.3%, Under 7.5 at 89.5%, Over 2.5 at 84.9%, Home or Away at 82.8%, and Away over 0.5 goals at 82.2%. The match delivered on the model’s high-confidence lineup, with the favoured result and the bulk of its selections coming in.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Afturelding win✓ Hit
63.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
17.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Njardvik win✗ Miss
19.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Afturelding
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.83
2.00
1.79
1.12
1.88
vs Stronger (2)
3.50
1.50
6.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.37
1.93
1.67
2.00
1.13
1.87
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
10% (-10pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
1.30
2.47
1.20
1.87
1.40
vs Stronger (5)
2.00
1.00
3.00
1.50
1.33
0.67
vs Similar (23)
2.13
1.39
2.17
1.17
2.09
1.64
vs Weaker (2)
3.00
1.00
5.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (33%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
95.3%
Under 1.5
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
84.9%
Under 2.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.3%
Under 3.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
78.5%
No
21.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
6.9%
3-1
6.9%
2-2
6.0%
3-2
6.0%
4-1
5.2%
1-1
5.1%
4-2
4.5%
2-0
4.0%
Afturelding goals ↓
Njardvik goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.4%
1.1%
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
1
2.2%
5.1%
4.0%
2.3%
1.0%
2
4.0%
6.9%
6.0%
3.4%
1.5%
3
4.0%
6.9%
6.0%
3.4%
1.5%
4
3.0%
5.2%
4.5%
2.6%
1.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Afturelding goals (down), columns = Njardvik goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Fram Reykjavik
2.50
Valur Reykjavik
2.40
Kári
2.25
Keflavik
2.25
Stjarnan
2.25
Thor Akureyri
2.25
Vestri
2.20
HK Kopavogur
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Throttur Reykjavik
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Haukar
2.00
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
2.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Leiknir R.
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Fjolnir
1.50
Grotta
1.50
IA Akranes
1.50
Njardvik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
KA Akureyri
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
RB
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Höttur / Huginn
1.50
Smári
1.50
BF 108
1.50
Kría
1.50
KFR
1.50
Hafnir
1.50
ÍH
1.50
Augnablik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Magni
1.50
Hvíti riddarinn
1.50
Árbær
1.50
Sindri
1.50
Ellidi
1.50
KV
1.50
KR Reykjavik
1.50
Breidablik
1.50
Úlfarnir
1.33
Völsungur
1.33
Reynir Hellissandur
1.10
KB
1.10
Dalvík / Reynir
0.00
Ægir
0.00
Álftanes
0.00
Álafoss
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
KFG
0.00
SR
0.00
Vængir Júpiters
0.00
Hamar
0.00
KFS
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
0.00
Léttir
0.00
KF
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Thorlákur
0.00
Ýmir
0.00
KH
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
Afturelding is 0.50 points better than Njardvik in terms of average points per game (2.00 vs 1.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KR Reykjavik
6.50
Kári
5.50
Vikingur Olafsiik
4.67
Stjarnan
4.50
Njardvik
4.00
BF 108
4.00
Throttur Reykjavik
3.67
HK Kopavogur
3.50
Fylkir
3.50
Keflavik
3.50
Thor Akureyri
3.50
Selfoss
3.33
IR Reykjavik
3.00
Grindavik
3.00
KA Akureyri
3.00
Álafoss
3.00
Tindastóll
3.00
ÍH
3.00
KF
3.00
Hvíti riddarinn
3.00
Ellidi
3.00
Ýmir
3.00
Breidablik
3.00
Leiknir R.
2.50
Smári
2.50
KFR
2.50
Spyrnir
2.50
Árbær
2.50
Völsungur
2.33
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
2.33
Reynir Hellissandur
2.03
KB
2.03
Fjolnir
2.00
Dalvík / Reynir
2.00
IA Akranes
2.00
Afturelding
2.00
Ægir
2.00
RB
2.00
KFG
2.00
SR
2.00
Hafnir
2.00
Skallagrímur
2.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Augnablik
2.00
Haukar
2.00
Magni
2.00
KV
2.00
Valur Reykjavik
1.80
Úlfarnir
1.67
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
1.67
Vestri
1.60
Grotta
1.50
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
1.50
Vídir
1.50
Reynir
1.50
Fram Reykjavik
1.50
Vængir Júpiters
1.00
Kría
1.00
Hamar
1.00
KFS
1.00
Léttir
1.00
Sindri
1.00
Thorlákur
1.00
KH
1.00
Höttur / Huginn
0.50
Álftanes
0.00
ÍBU
0.00
Árborg
0.00
Afríka
0.00
Stokkseyri
0.00
Neisti D.
0.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
0.00
Thróttur Vogar
0.00
FH hafnarfjordur
0.00
Fálkar
0.00
Einherji
0.00
Afturelding is 2.00 goals worse than Njardvik in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 4.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Afturelding
0.33
Leiknir R.
0.50
Sindri
0.50
Fram Reykjavik
0.50
Vestri
0.80
Valur Reykjavik
0.80
IA Akranes
1.00
Vídir
1.00
Skallagrímur
1.00
IBV Vestmannaeyjar
1.00
FH hafnarfjordur
1.00
Thor Akureyri
1.00
Breidablik
1.00
Throttur Reykjavik
1.33
HK Kopavogur
1.50
Fylkir
1.50
IR Reykjavik
1.50
Keflavik
1.50
Grindavik
1.50
Spyrnir
1.50
Haukar
1.67
KA Akureyri
2.00
Fjardabyggd / Leiknir
2.00
Vængir Júpiters
2.00
Tindastóll
2.00
Léttir
2.00
Hvíti riddarinn
2.00
Ellidi
2.00
Völsungur
2.00
KR Reykjavik
2.00
Selfoss
2.00
Einherji
2.00
Vikingur Olafsiik
2.33
Fjolnir
2.50
Grotta
2.50
Njardvik
2.50
Höttur / Huginn
2.50
Smári
2.50
BF 108
2.50
KFR
2.50
Augnablik
2.50
Úlfarnir
2.67
Reynir Hellissandur
2.74
KB
2.74
Kári
2.75
Ægir
3.00
Álftanes
3.00
KFG
3.00
SR
3.00
Kría
3.00
Hamar
3.00
ÍH
3.00
Stokkseyri
3.00
Vikingur Reykjavik
3.00
Stjarnan
3.25
RB
3.50
Reynir
3.50
Dalvík / Reynir
4.00
Álafoss
4.00
Árborg
4.00
Kormákur / Hvöt
4.00
Thorlákur
4.00
Ýmir
4.00
KH
4.00
KV
4.00
Fálkar
4.00
Magni
4.50
Árbær
4.50
KÁ Hafnarfjördur
4.67
Hafnir
5.00
KF
5.00
Neisti D.
5.00
ÍBU
6.00
Thróttur Vogar
6.00
KFS
7.00
Afríka
8.00
Afturelding is 2.17 goals better than Njardvik in terms of goals conceded per game (0.33 vs 2.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Afturelding or Draw✓ Hit
80.2%
Avg Implied -
63%
17%
20%
covers Afturelding + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Afturelding or Njardvik✓ Hit
82.8%
Avg Implied -
63%
17%
20%
covers Afturelding + Njardvik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Njardvik✗ Miss
37.0%
Avg Implied -
63%
17%
20%
covers Draw + Njardvik
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Afturelding over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
95.0%
Under
5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
79.9%
Under
20.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
35.1%
Under
64.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.2%
Under
17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
51.4%
Under
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
24.9%
Under
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
9.7%
Under
90.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Afturelding, so a minus line means Afturelding give that many goals of a start and Njardvik receive them. At -1, Afturelding must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Afturelding win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Afturelding)Actual: Afturelding
Afturelding -2
27.4%
Draw -2
17.3%
Njardvik +2
55.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Afturelding)Actual: Afturelding
Afturelding -1
44.6%
Draw -1
18.4%
Njardvik +1
37.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Afturelding)Actual: Afturelding
Afturelding +1
80.2%
Draw +1
10.4%
Njardvik -1
9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Afturelding)Actual: Afturelding
Afturelding +2
90.6%
Draw +2
5.7%
Njardvik -2
3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Afturelding
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.70
0.50
1.00
0.25
0.44
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.50
3.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.30
0.74
0.33
1.08
0.27
0.47
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.40
1.27
0.40
0.93
0.40
vs Stronger (5)
1.40
0.20
3.00
0.50
0.33
0.00
vs Similar (23)
0.96
0.48
0.83
0.42
1.09
0.55
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
70% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Afturelding
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.13
1.50
0.79
0.88
1.44
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
1.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.07
1.19
1.33
0.92
0.87
1.40
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Njardvik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Njardvik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.90
1.20
0.80
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
0.80
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.67
vs Similar (23)
1.17
0.91
1.33
0.75
1.00
1.09
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Afturelding) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Afturelding over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Afturelding over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Njardvik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
84.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
82.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Iceland: 1. Deild 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Iceland: 1. Deild stats & trends →