AIK Stockholm’s recent three-game winning streak has them feeling confident at home, yet their average of 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded against similar opposition suggests a balanced side. Hammarby FF, still on a two-game winning run, have struggled away, averaging only 0.88 goals scored and conceding 1.75 against comparable teams. The model’s most likely outcome is an away win, with a 43% chance, followed by a 29% home win and a 28% draw. The expected total goals is 2.7, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.3% probability. The match’s biggest edge for the model lies in the under-goals selections, where the probability of fewer than 7.5 goals is 99.3% and the edge over the market is 3%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (99.1%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.6%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (95.0%), Under 5.5 (94.2%), and Away under 3.5 goals (93.3%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, an away win, did not materialise as AIK Stockholm secured a 3-2 victory, extending their four-game winning streak. The model had given the away side a 43% probability of triumph, yet the outcome proved otherwise. All of the model’s selections were settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.1%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.9%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 96.6%, Under 5.5 hit at 94.2%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 94.0%, and Away under 3.5 goals hit at 93.3%. The final score of 3-2 confirmed the home win, leaving the model’s favourite call incorrect.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AIK Stockholm win✓ Hit
29.1%
Avg Implied 15.7% · @ 5.95
Edge
+13.4%
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
6.60
BetVictor
6.50
Pinnacle
6.36
Marathonbet
6.35
1xBet
6.34
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 20.2% · @ 4.62
Edge
+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
5.06
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Bet365
4.75
Unibet
4.60
Hammarby FF win✗ Miss
43.1%
Avg Implied 64.2% · @ 1.45
Edge
-21.0%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.62
Superbet
1.61
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.45
Pinnacle
1.44
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AIK Stockholm
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
1.47
1.29
1.64
1.94
1.31
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.61
1.30
1.40
1.40
1.77
1.23
vs Weaker (7)
1.71
2.00
1.00
2.25
2.67
1.67
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hammarby FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hammarby FF
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.27
0.90
2.76
0.53
1.62
1.38
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.50
1.17
2.00
0.70
0.88
1.75
vs Weaker (12)
3.42
0.50
3.86
0.29
2.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.6%
@ 1.13-5.9%
Under 1.5
23.4%
@ 5.33+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Under
Unibet
6.00
Pinnacle
5.66
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
10Bet
5.25
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.0%
@ 1.49-11.9%
Under 2.5
49.0%
@ 2.51+11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Betano
1.52
Betfair
1.50
Under
Unibet
2.70
Pinnacle
2.63
Betfair
2.55
10Bet
2.55
Betano
2.50
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
28.9%
@ 2.23-13.1%
Under 3.5
71.1%
@ 1.62+13.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Pinnacle
2.28
Superbet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Under
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.8%
@ 1.61-1.8%
No
44.2%
@ 2.18+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
BetVictor
1.62
No
Superbet
2.27
Unibet
2.25
William Hil
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Betfair
2.20
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%@ 8.66+8.0%
1-2
9.1%@ 7.61+3.2%
0-1
8.8%@ 8.53+3.5%
0-0
7.8%@ 16.26+5.0%
0-2
7.6%@ 7.87+1.8%
2-1
7.2%@ 16.37+4.5%
1-0
6.8%@ 18.82+4.4%
2-2
5.5%@ 14.23+2.3%
AIK Stockholm goals ↓
Hammarby FF goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
8.8%
7.6%
3.8%
1.4%
1
6.8%
13%
9.1%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.8%
7.2%
5.5%
2.8%
1.0%
3
1.9%
2.9%
2.2%
1.1%
0.4%
4
0.6%
0.9%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AIK Stockholm goals (down), columns = Hammarby FF goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sirius
2.21
Hammarby FF
1.89
Djurgardens IF
1.84
AIK Stockholm
1.72
BK Hacken
1.63
IF Elfsborg
1.63
Malmo FF
1.53
Vasteras SK FK
1.53
Gais
1.37
IF Brommapojkarna
1.26
IFK Goteborg
1.21
Mjallby AIF
1.11
Kalmar FF
1.00
Degerfors IF
0.84
Orgryte IS
0.74
Halmstad
0.58
AIK Stockholm is 0.17 points worse than Hammarby FF in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.89).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Sirius
2.47
Hammarby FF
2.32
Djurgardens IF
2.26
BK Hacken
1.74
Malmo FF
1.74
AIK Stockholm
1.56
Vasteras SK FK
1.47
IF Elfsborg
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna
1.42
Mjallby AIF
1.33
Gais
1.32
IFK Goteborg
1.26
Orgryte IS
1.16
Kalmar FF
1.11
Degerfors IF
0.89
Halmstad
0.68
AIK Stockholm is 0.76 goals worse than Hammarby FF in terms of goals scored per game (1.56 vs 2.32).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Gais
0.95
Hammarby FF
0.95
IF Elfsborg
1.00
Djurgardens IF
1.00
Sirius
1.42
AIK Stockholm
1.50
BK Hacken
1.53
Kalmar FF
1.53
Malmo FF
1.58
Mjallby AIF
1.61
IF Brommapojkarna
1.63
Degerfors IF
1.63
Vasteras SK FK
1.74
Halmstad
1.84
IFK Goteborg
2.05
Orgryte IS
2.21
AIK Stockholm is 0.55 goals worse than Hammarby FF in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.95).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Hammarby FF
61%
Djurgardens IF
56%
Malmo FF
56%
Mjallby AIF
53%
BK Hacken
52%
AIK Stockholm
52%
IFK Goteborg
51%
Gais
50%
Sirius
48%
IF Elfsborg
48%
Vasteras SK FK
48%
Kalmar FF
47%
IF Brommapojkarna
47%
Degerfors IF
46%
Orgryte IS
43%
Halmstad
41%
AIK Stockholm is 9.1 percentage points worse than Hammarby FF in terms of average possession (52% vs 61%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AIK Stockholm
For 4.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.7 · Against 1.7 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.6 · Against 13.3 · Total 25.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hammarby FF
For 7.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 10.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.2 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AIK Stockholm
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.3
3.4
3.3
3.5
23.8
23.1
24.4
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (39)
10.8
11.4
10.4
3.5
3.2
3.9
24.1
23.3
24.7
vs Weaker (11)
8.7
7.6
10.0
3.0
3.8
2.3
22.7
22.6
22.8
% over line
55%
50%
59%
54%
57%
52%
69%
70%
68%
% under line
45%
50%
41%
46%
43%
48%
31%
30%
32%
This opponent (Hammarby FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hammarby FF
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.9
10.2
2.6
2.9
2.4
24.3
24.4
24.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.9
10.2
9.5
3.0
3.3
2.6
24.6
25.7
23.6
vs Weaker (21)
10.2
9.5
11.0
2.2
2.2
2.2
23.9
22.8
25.1
% over line
51%
44%
58%
32%
32%
32%
73%
67%
79%
% under line
49%
56%
42%
68%
68%
68%
27%
33%
21%
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
IFK Goteborg
11.5
Sirius
11.1
BK Hacken
10.7
IF Brommapojkarna
10.7
Orgryte IS
10.6
Djurgardens IF
10.5
AIK Stockholm
10.4
Gais
10.3
Degerfors IF
10.3
Halmstad
10.2
Kalmar FF
10.2
IF Elfsborg
10.0
Mjallby AIF
10.0
Hammarby FF
10.0
Vasteras SK FK
9.9
Malmo FF
9.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Djurgardens IF
4.4
BK Hacken
4.3
IFK Goteborg
4.3
AIK Stockholm
4.2
Degerfors IF
3.9
Malmo FF
3.8
Gais
3.8
Mjallby AIF
3.7
IF Brommapojkarna
3.7
Vasteras SK FK
3.6
Hammarby FF
3.6
Halmstad
3.5
IF Elfsborg
3.5
Sirius
3.5
Kalmar FF
3.4
Orgryte IS
2.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Malmo FF
25.9
Djurgardens IF
25.7
IFK Goteborg
25.7
Sirius
25.4
Degerfors IF
25.4
Vasteras SK FK
25.1
Gais
25.1
Mjallby AIF
25.0
Hammarby FF
24.6
BK Hacken
24.4
IF Brommapojkarna
24.3
IF Elfsborg
24.3
AIK Stockholm
23.9
Kalmar FF
23.6
Halmstad
23.3
Orgryte IS
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
57.2%
@ 1.64+0.7%
Under 9.5
42.8%
@ 2.13-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.68
Betano
1.67
Superbet
1.65
1xBet
1.64
Under
Unibet
2.43
Pinnacle
2.13
Superbet
2.12
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.07
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.0%
Under 3.5
56.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
66.4%
Under 21.5
33.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AIK Stockholm or Draw✓ Hit
56.9%
Avg Implied 35.3% · @ 2.64
Edge
+21.5%
29%
28%
43%
covers AIK Stockholm + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
2.80
1xBet
2.76
Marathonbet
2.76
10Bet
2.75
Betano
2.70
AIK Stockholm or Hammarby FF✓ Hit
72.2%
Avg Implied 80.6% · @ 1.16
Edge
-8.3%
29%
28%
43%
covers AIK Stockholm + Hammarby FF
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw or Hammarby FF✗ Miss
70.9%
Avg Implied 84.1% · @ 1.11
Edge
-13.2%
29%
28%
43%
covers Draw + Hammarby FF
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AIK Stockholm over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.0%
@ 1.48+7.0%
Under
30.0%
@ 2.52-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
Betfair
1.50
BetVictor
1.50
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Under
Superbet
2.80
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.54
Betfair
2.50
AIK Stockholm over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.9%
@ 3.32+5.8%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.30-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.64
BetVictor
3.50
1xBet
3.48
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.45
Under
Superbet
1.38
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
AIK Stockholm over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
12.1%
@ 8.36+1.0%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.05-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Betfair
9.50
Bet365
9.00
Betano
7.30
Under
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
AIK Stockholm over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 19.33-1.6%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.01+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
26.00
Superbet
20.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Hammarby FF over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.9%
@ 1.08-8.8%
Under
22.1%
@ 7.03+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Bet365
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Hammarby FF over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
44.6%
@ 1.43-20.9%
Under
55.4%
@ 2.70+20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.91
Unibet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.78
1xBet
2.78
Betfair
2.75
Hammarby FF over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
19.4%
@ 2.35-20.5%
Under
80.6%
@ 1.55+20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.60
Bet365
2.50
Betfair
2.38
Betano
2.35
Pinnacle
2.35
Under
Unibet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Hammarby FF over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 4.46-14.1%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.17+14.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
5.10
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
4.50
Betfair
4.50
1xBet
4.33
Under
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AIK Stockholm, so a minus line means AIK Stockholm give that many goals of a start and Hammarby FF receive them. At -1, AIK Stockholm must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AIK Stockholm win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AIK Stockholm)Actual: Hammarby FF
AIK Stockholm -2
4.0%
@ 28.00+0.7%
Draw -2
8.5%
@ 14.50+2.0%
Hammarby FF +2
87.5%
@ 1.03-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
22.00
Draw
Bet365
17.00
Superbet
12.00
Away
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Handicap -1 (AIK Stockholm)Actual: Draw
AIK Stockholm -1
12.5%
@ 11.50+4.8%
Draw -1
16.6%
@ 6.77+3.5%
Hammarby FF +1
70.9%
@ 1.11-8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
12.00
Marathonbet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
Handicap +1 (AIK Stockholm)Actual: AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm +1
56.9%
@ 2.56+21.7%
Draw +1
21.1%
@ 3.71-3.1%
Hammarby FF -1
22.0%
@ 2.21-18.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.76
10Bet
2.75
Betfair
2.70
Unibet
2.65
Superbet
2.25
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.74
Superbet
3.70
Unibet
3.65
Betfair
3.60
Away
Bet365
2.50
Superbet
2.47
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.08
Handicap +2 (AIK Stockholm)Actual: AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm +2
78.0%
@ 1.61+22.2%
Draw +2
13.3%
@ 4.31-7.5%
Hammarby FF -2
8.7%
@ 3.85-14.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Bet365
1.62
Betfair
1.62
Marathonbet
1.62
Draw
Superbet
4.55
Bet365
4.50
Marathonbet
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.00
Away
Superbet
4.40
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.58
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AIK Stockholm
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.87
0.43
1.14
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
0.57
0.74
0.50
1.00
0.62
0.54
vs Weaker (7)
0.57
1.29
0.25
1.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Hammarby FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hammarby FF
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.40
1.12
0.35
0.69
0.46
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.50
1.00
0.40
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (12)
1.17
0.25
1.29
0.29
1.00
0.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
71.9%
@ 1.24-3.0%
Under 0.5
28.1%
@ 3.70+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Under
Betfair
4.00
William Hil
3.80
BetVictor
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.2%
@ 2.18-7.5%
Under 1.5
64.8%
@ 1.63+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.31
Betano
2.27
Pinnacle
2.23
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Under
Unibet
1.68
William Hil
1.65
Pinnacle
1.65
Superbet
1.64
Marathonbet
1.63
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.8%
@ 4.85-3.4%
Under 2.5
84.2%
@ 1.15+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
4.85
Marathonbet
4.85
Under
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.14
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AIK Stockholm over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
38.2%
@ 2.51+1.2%
Under
61.8%
@ 1.47-1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
10Bet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.55
Betano
2.55
1xBet
2.44
Under
Superbet
1.55
1xBet
1.49
Unibet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
AIK Stockholm over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.4%
@ 8.96-2.0%
Under
91.6%
@ 1.04+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
9.10
10Bet
9.00
Betano
7.90
Superbet
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
AIK Stockholm over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.9%
@ 30.00-99.1%
Under
99.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
30.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Hammarby FF over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.2%
@ 1.48-8.8%
Under
45.8%
@ 2.51+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.48
1xBet
1.46
10Bet
1.45
Under
Pinnacle
2.64
Unibet
2.63
10Bet
2.55
1xBet
2.50
Betano
2.40
Hammarby FF over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
20.0%
@ 3.34-7.8%
Under
80.0%
@ 1.28+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
Betano
3.40
Marathonbet
3.34
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Under
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
Hammarby FF over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.0%
@ 8.43-5.1%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.04+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
9.30
1xBet
8.60
10Bet
8.00
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AIK Stockholm
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.60
0.86
0.50
1.25
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.57
0.90
0.40
1.15
0.69
vs Weaker (7)
1.14
0.71
0.75
0.75
1.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Hammarby FF) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hammarby FF
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.50
1.65
0.18
0.92
0.92
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
1.00
0.30
0.38
1.12
vs Weaker (12)
2.25
0.25
2.57
0.00
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
70% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (AIK Stockholm) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
78.5%
@ 1.14-3.6%
Under 0.5
21.5%
@ 5.19+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Under
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.40
Marathonbet
5.40
Betano
5.10
Superbet
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.8%
@ 1.71-11.8%
Under 1.5
57.2%
@ 2.05+11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.75
Superbet
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.70
Under
Unibet
2.12
Betano
2.12
Marathonbet
2.08
1xBet
2.08
Superbet
2.00
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.9%
@ 3.23-10.0%
Under 2.5
81.1%
@ 1.31+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Betano
3.10
Marathonbet
3.10
Under
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AIK Stockholm over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.2%
@ 2.06-3.8%
Under
58.8%
@ 1.68+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.14
10Bet
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Superbet
1.92
Under
Superbet
1.78
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.67
10Bet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.62
AIK Stockholm over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
11.1%
@ 6.61-2.9%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.08+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.60
10Bet
7.00
1xBet
6.70
Betano
6.00
Superbet
5.75
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
AIK Stockholm over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 19.92-2.8%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
29.00
Superbet
19.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
Hammarby FF over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
57.9%
@ 1.33-12.0%
Under
42.1%
@ 3.09+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.31
10Bet
1.30
Under
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.15
Superbet
2.82
Hammarby FF over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
27.2%
@ 2.50-10.0%
Under
72.8%
@ 1.48+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.77
Betano
2.45
Marathonbet
2.43
1xBet
2.43
10Bet
2.40
Under
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.39
Hammarby FF over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
8.9%
@ 5.75-7.3%
Under
91.1%
@ 1.10+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
6.50
1xBet
5.70
10Bet
5.50
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.3%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.02
10Bet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.8%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
97.9%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
+1.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
94.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Unibet
1.08
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.04
Betano
1.06
10Bet
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.03
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.3%
1.17
Unibet
1.21
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
BetVictor
1.17
+14.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
10Bet
1.03
1xBet
1.02
-
+2.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
91.1%
1.10
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Superbet
1.08
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.05
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.05
Superbet
1.07
Betano
1.07
10Bet
1.07
Unibet
1.07
Bet365
1.07
-1.0%
✗ Miss
Away +2 handicap
87.5%
1.03
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.03
-
-
-
-2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
87.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
86.1%
1.24
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.26
Pinnacle
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.23
+10.6%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 HT goals
84.2%
1.15
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.17
Unibet
1.14
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.31
Betano
1.36
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.0%
1.28
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Betano
1.29
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.25
+7.8%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.5%
1.14
William Hil
1.17
Betano
1.16
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
-3.6%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.9%
1.08
Superbet
1.10
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.08
BetVictor
1.07
-8.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
76.6%
1.13
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.16
Pinnacle
1.15
Superbet
1.15
Bet365
1.14
-5.9%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
72.8%
1.48
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.39
+10.0%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.2%
1.16
Superbet
1.20
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-8.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
71.9%
1.24
Betano
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
William Hil
1.25
-3.0%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
71.1%
1.62
Unibet
1.68
Pinnacle
1.66
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
10Bet
1.62
+13.1%
✗ Miss
Draw or Away
70.9%
1.11
Superbet
1.17
Betano
1.16
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
-13.2%
✗ Miss
Away +1 handicap
70.9%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.10
Unibet
1.10
-
-
-8.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AIK Stockholm
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Linus Carlstrand75%
Johan Hove31%
Zadok Yohanna29%
Adrian Helm25%
Sixten Gustafsson25%
Bersant Celina22%
Axel Kouame18%
Victor Andersson14%
Ibrahim Cissé12%
Yannick Geiger12%
Kevin Filling12%
Taha Ayari9%
Áron Csongvai8%
Dino Beširović7%
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos0%
Kristoffer Nordfeldt0%
Mads Døhr Thychosen0%
Herve Matthys0%
Lukas Bergquist0%
Amel Mujanić0%
Erik Flataker0%
Fredrik Nissen0%
Ahmad Faqa0%
Abdihakin Ali0%
Wilmer Olofsson0%
Stanley Wilson0%
Linus Järeteg0%
Charlie Pavey0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Wilmer Olofsson50%
Charlie Pavey40%
Dino Beširović29%
Zadok Yohanna29%
Mads Døhr Thychosen27%
Kristoffer Nordfeldt25%
Johan Hove25%
Ibrahim Cissé25%
Linus Carlstrand25%
Yannick Geiger25%
Bersant Celina22%
Amel Mujanić20%
Stanley Wilson20%
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos18%
Taha Ayari18%
Herve Matthys17%
Áron Csongvai17%
Lukas Bergquist15%
Abdihakin Ali15%
Sixten Gustafsson12%
Kevin Filling12%
Victor Andersson7%
Erik Flataker0%
Fredrik Nissen0%
Ahmad Faqa0%
Adrian Helm0%
Axel Kouame0%
Linus Järeteg0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Zadok Yohanna29%
Adrian Helm25%
Linus Carlstrand25%
Stanley Wilson20%
Kevin Filling18%
Dino Beširović14%
Erik Flataker14%
Bersant Celina11%
Taha Ayari9%
Axel Kouame9%
Áron Csongvai8%
Lukas Bergquist8%
Victor Andersson7%
Johan Hove6%
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos0%
Kristoffer Nordfeldt0%
Mads Døhr Thychosen0%
Herve Matthys0%
Ibrahim Cissé0%
Amel Mujanić0%
Fredrik Nissen0%
Ahmad Faqa0%
Abdihakin Ali0%
Wilmer Olofsson0%
Linus Järeteg0%
Charlie Pavey0%
Yannick Geiger0%
Sixten Gustafsson0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Linus Carlstrand75%
Zadok Yohanna57%
Bersant Celina33%
Johan Hove12%
Taha Ayari9%
Kevin Filling6%
Sotirios Papagiannopoulos0%
Kristoffer Nordfeldt0%
Dino Beširović0%
Mads Døhr Thychosen0%
Herve Matthys0%
Ibrahim Cissé0%
Lukas Bergquist0%
Amel Mujanić0%
Áron Csongvai0%
Erik Flataker0%
Fredrik Nissen0%
Ahmad Faqa0%
Abdihakin Ali0%
Adrian Helm0%
Victor Andersson0%
Wilmer Olofsson0%
Axel Kouame0%
Stanley Wilson0%
Linus Järeteg0%
Charlie Pavey0%
Yannick Geiger0%
Sixten Gustafsson0%
Hammarby FF
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Paulos Abraham53%
Victor Lind37%
Waylon Renecke25%
Montader Madjed21%
Frank Junior Adjei19%
Nahir Besara18%
Nikola Vasic14%
Noah Persson11%
Tesfaldet Tekie8%
Victor Eriksson7%
Ibrahima Fofana7%
Frederik Winther6%
Warner Hahn0%
Oscar Johansson Schellhas0%
Markus Karlsson0%
Oliver Jordan Hagen0%
Amin Boudri0%
Moise Kaboré0%
Hampus Skoglund0%
Wilson Lindberg Uhrstrom0%
Suwaibou Kebbeh0%
Oscar Steinke Brånby0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Victor Eriksson27%
Frank Junior Adjei19%
Hampus Skoglund17%
Moise Kaboré12%
Noah Persson11%
Nahir Besara6%
Frederik Winther6%
Oscar Johansson Schellhas6%
Warner Hahn5%
Markus Karlsson5%
Tesfaldet Tekie0%
Victor Lind0%
Ibrahima Fofana0%
Paulos Abraham0%
Nikola Vasic0%
Montader Madjed0%
Waylon Renecke0%
Oliver Jordan Hagen0%
Amin Boudri0%
Wilson Lindberg Uhrstrom0%
Suwaibou Kebbeh0%
Oscar Steinke Brånby0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Victor Lind37%
Amin Boudri20%
Nahir Besara18%
Paulos Abraham16%
Oscar Johansson Schellhas11%
Noah Persson11%
Markus Karlsson11%
Ibrahima Fofana7%
Frank Junior Adjei6%
Hampus Skoglund6%
Frederik Winther0%
Warner Hahn0%
Tesfaldet Tekie0%
Victor Eriksson0%
Nikola Vasic0%
Montader Madjed0%
Waylon Renecke0%
Oliver Jordan Hagen0%
Moise Kaboré0%
Wilson Lindberg Uhrstrom0%
Suwaibou Kebbeh0%
Oscar Steinke Brånby0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nahir Besara53%
Paulos Abraham42%
Victor Lind37%
Montader Madjed37%
Frank Junior Adjei25%
Nikola Vasic14%
Frederik Winther11%
Warner Hahn0%
Oscar Johansson Schellhas0%
Tesfaldet Tekie0%
Victor Eriksson0%
Ibrahima Fofana0%
Noah Persson0%
Waylon Renecke0%
Markus Karlsson0%
Oliver Jordan Hagen0%
Amin Boudri0%
Moise Kaboré0%
Hampus Skoglund0%
Wilson Lindberg Uhrstrom0%
Suwaibou Kebbeh0%
Oscar Steinke Brånby0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (28)
€35m
HF (22)
€35m
SIR (24)
€28m
DI (22)
€27m
MA (24)
€26m
AS (27)
€21m
IG (25)
€18m
IE (26)
€17m
BH (22)
€16m
GAI (29)
€13m
KF (21)
€10m
VSF (24)
€10m
IB (25)
€9m
HAL (20)
€8m
OI (26)
€8m
DI (23)
€6m
AIK Stockholm's squad is €14m less valuable than Hammarby FF's (€21m vs €35m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SIR (10)
€18m
HF (9)
€13m
MF (8)
€12m
IG (9)
€8m
AS (7)
€8m
DI (6)
€8m
MA (9)
€7m
BH (4)
€6m
IE (9)
€5m
GAI (10)
€5m
KF (8)
€4m
HAL (7)
€4m
IB (10)
€3m
VSF (8)
€3m
OI (7)
€2m
DI (5)
€1m
AIK Stockholm's attack is €5m less valuable than Hammarby FF's (€8m vs €13m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DI (6)
€14m
HF (4)
€11m
MF (7)
€11m
MA (6)
€11m
AS (9)
€7m
SIR (5)
€5m
IE (5)
€4m
IG (4)
€3m
GAI (8)
€3m
BH (6)
€3m
VSF (6)
€3m
DI (7)
€3m
KF (5)
€2m
OI (7)
€2m
IB (4)
€2m
HAL (4)
€1m
AIK Stockholm's midfield is €4m less valuable than Hammarby FF's (€7m vs €11m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
MF (13)
€12m
HF (9)
€10m
MA (9)
€8m
IE (12)
€7m
BH (12)
€7m
DI (10)
€6m
AS (11)
€6m
IG (12)
€6m
GAI (11)
€5m
OI (12)
€4m
SIR (9)
€4m
IB (11)
€4m
VSF (10)
€4m
KF (8)
€3m
HAL (9)
€3m
DI (11)
€3m
AIK Stockholm's defence is €4m less valuable than Hammarby FF's (€6m vs €10m).
Sweden: Allsvenskan 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Sweden: Allsvenskan stats & trends →
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Sirius
Djurgardens IF
IF Elfsborg
BK Hacken
Malmo FF
Vasteras SK FK
Gais
IF Brommapojkarna
IFK Goteborg
Mjallby AIF
Kalmar FF
Degerfors IF
Orgryte IS
Halmstad