Airbus UK’s recent 0-1 loss to Colwyn Bay does little to dent the model’s confidence in a home win, as the system still rates the result at 87%. The team’s home form shows a prolific 3.0 goals per game and a solid 0.67 conceded, while Holywell, playing away, averages only 0.5 scored and 1.5 conceded against weaker opposition. This disparity explains the 87% home win probability, 9% draw and 4% away win. The expected total of 4.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being 6 + and a 26% chance of that outcome. The single most probable scoreline is 3-0 for Airbus UK, carrying a 9.9% probability. The model’s selections reflect the dominance of the home side: “Away under 3.5 goals” 99.2%, “Away under 2.5 HT goals” 99.1%, “Home +2 handicap” 98.9%, “Away under 2.5 2H goals” 97.7%, “Home over 0.5 goals” 97.2%, “Home or Draw” 96.0% with a 15% edge, “Home +1 handicap” 96.0%, and “Away under 2.5 goals” 95.6%. The model’s pick remains a decisive home win.
Results analysis
Airbus UK, riding a win that extends their recent form, comfortably beat Holywell 6-2, matching the model’s predicted home win. The favourite was Home win with an 87% probability, and the model’s call was correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 99.2%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 99.2%, Home +2 handicap hit at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 98.1%, Home over 0.5 goals hit at 97.2%, Home or Draw hit at 96.0%, and Away under 2.5 goals hit at 95.6%. Only Home under 2.5 HT goals missed, also at 97.0%. The most likely scoreline of 3-0 or 4-0 came close, but the final 6-2 confirmed the high-scoring expectation.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Airbus UK win✓ Hit
87.0%
Avg Implied 59.5% · @ 1.52
Edge
+27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Dafabet
1.57
Draw✗ Miss
9.0%
Avg Implied 20.7% · @ 4.38
Edge
-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.90
1xBet
4.85
Pinnacle
4.85
William Hil
4.80
Bet365
4.50
Holywell win✗ Miss
4.0%
Avg Implied 19.8% · @ 4.58
Edge
-15.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
5.04
Marathonbet
4.85
Dafabet
4.80
Bet365
4.75
William Hil
4.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Airbus UK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
0.97
3.08
0.62
2.35
1.24
vs Stronger (27)
2.56
1.04
2.91
0.73
2.31
1.25
vs Similar (3)
3.67
0.33
4.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
2.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.83
2.67
1.53
1.60
2.13
vs Stronger (11)
2.55
1.36
3.17
0.83
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.27
2.20
2.86
2.00
1.75
2.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.75
0.50
2.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.5%
@ 1.09+10.2%
Under 1.5
6.5%
@ 5.46-10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.06
Under
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.25
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
4.85
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
81.0%
@ 1.39+15.2%
Under 2.5
19.0%
@ 2.67-15.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
Under
Marathonbet
2.92
1xBet
2.92
Betfair
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.3%
@ 2.01+17.5%
Under 3.5
36.7%
@ 1.70-17.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.14
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Superbet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Under
Marathonbet
1.80
1xBet
1.79
Betfair
1.73
Bet365
1.73
Pinnacle
1.68
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.0%
@ 1.46-9.4%
No
47.0%
@ 2.42+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
Superbet
1.52
Unibet
1.45
10Bet
1.45
No
1xBet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.51
Betfair
2.50
Unibet
2.50
William Hil
2.50
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
9.9%@ 11.94+6.2%
4-0
8.9%@ 20.22+6.7%
2-0
8.3%@ 9.13+3.4%
3-1
7.7%@ 9.87+3.2%
4-1
6.9%@ 16.53+4.2%
2-1
6.5%@ 7.53+0.6%
5-0
6.3%@ 38.50+5.2%
5-1
4.9%@ 32.62+3.6%
Airbus UK goals ↓
Holywell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.7%
0.6%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
1
4.3%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
2
8.3%
6.5%
2.5%
0.7%
0.1%
3
9.9%
7.7%
3.0%
0.8%
0.2%
4
8.9%
6.9%
2.7%
0.7%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Airbus UK goals (down), columns = Holywell goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Airbus UK is 1.50 points better than Holywell in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Airbus UK is 0.33 goals better than Holywell in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Airbus UK is 2.83 goals better than Holywell in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 4.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Airbus UK or Draw✓ Hit
96.0%
Avg Implied 80.2% · @ 1.14
Edge
+15.9%
87%
9%
4%
covers Airbus UK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Airbus UK or Holywell✓ Hit
91.0%
Avg Implied 79.9% · @ 1.14
Edge
+11.1%
87%
9%
4%
covers Airbus UK + Holywell
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
Draw or Holywell✗ Miss
13.0%
Avg Implied 39.9% · @ 2.29
Edge
-27.0%
87%
9%
4%
covers Draw + Holywell
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
2.50
1xBet
2.44
Marathonbet
2.44
BetVictor
2.40
Betano
2.32
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
97.2%
@ 1.08+11.7%
Under
2.8%
@ 6.36-11.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
7.40
Bet365
6.50
Betano
6.10
10Bet
6.00
Superbet
5.80
Airbus UK over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
87.2%
@ 1.45+23.5%
Under
12.8%
@ 2.56-23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.50
Bet365
1.50
1xBet
1.45
Superbet
1.44
Under
Marathonbet
2.88
1xBet
2.60
10Bet
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
Airbus UK over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
69.4%
@ 2.33+29.6%
Under
30.6%
@ 1.53-29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.50
Pinnacle
2.46
Betano
2.42
Superbet
2.37
10Bet
2.35
Under
1xBet
1.65
Marathonbet
1.63
Pinnacle
1.53
Betano
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Airbus UK over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
48.0%
@ 4.17+25.9%
Under
52.0%
@ 1.18-25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.50
Betano
4.45
Superbet
4.30
Marathonbet
3.98
1xBet
3.60
Under
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.18
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Holywell over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
54.1%
@ 1.36-13.8%
Under
45.9%
@ 2.88+13.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.40
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.36
Superbet
1.35
10Bet
1.33
Under
Bet365
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Betano
2.90
10Bet
2.88
1xBet
2.75
Holywell over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
18.4%
@ 2.61-16.8%
Under
81.6%
@ 1.42+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.72
Superbet
2.67
Pinnacle
2.62
Bet365
2.62
1xBet
2.61
Under
Pinnacle
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
Holywell over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
4.4%
@ 6.31-10.2%
Under
95.6%
@ 1.08+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.35
Betano
6.20
Superbet
6.00
Under
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Holywell over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.8%
@ 11.12-7.6%
Under
99.2%
@ 1.02+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
11.25
Bet365
11.00
Under
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Airbus UK, so a minus line means Airbus UK give that many goals of a start and Holywell receive them. At -1, Airbus UK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Airbus UK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Airbus UK)Actual: Airbus UK
Airbus UK -2
53.6%
@ 3.91+31.6%
Draw -2
19.0%
@ 4.33-0.9%
Holywell +2
27.3%
@ 1.49-30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
4.33
Marathonbet
3.76
Unibet
3.65
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Marathonbet
4.50
Unibet
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.56
Bet365
1.50
Unibet
1.40
Handicap -1 (Airbus UK)Actual: Airbus UK
Airbus UK -1
72.7%
@ 2.29+34.7%
Draw -1
14.4%
@ 3.66-9.4%
Holywell +1
13.0%
@ 2.27-25.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.40
Bet365
2.30
Unibet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.15
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.65
Unibet
3.20
Away
Marathonbet
2.44
Betfair
2.30
10Bet
2.30
Bet365
2.25
Unibet
2.04
Handicap +1 (Airbus UK)Actual: Airbus UK
Airbus UK +1
96.0%
@ 1.12+21.6%
Draw +1
2.8%
@ 5.65-12.0%
Holywell -1
1.1%
@ 7.75-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Bet365
9.00
Marathonbet
6.50
Handicap +2 (Airbus UK)Actual: Airbus UK
Airbus UK +2
98.9%
@ 1.05+9.2%
Draw +2
0.9%
@ 15.00-5.4%
Holywell -2
0.2%
@ 23.00-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Airbus UK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
1.23
0.23
0.88
0.59
vs Stronger (27)
1.04
0.48
1.18
0.27
0.94
0.62
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.80
1.40
0.73
0.67
0.87
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.36
1.83
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.20
1.43
1.29
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (4)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
74.4%
@ 1.19-2.2%
Under 0.5
25.6%
@ 3.91+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
Under
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
William Hil
4.20
Betfair
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.00-8.5%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.69+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Bet365
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Superbet
2.07
Under
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
William Hil
1.75
Pinnacle
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
14.4%
@ 3.99-8.4%
Under 2.5
85.6%
@ 1.18+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.35
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.10
William Hil
4.00
Under
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.18
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
59.8%
@ 1.50-1.9%
Under
40.2%
@ 2.42+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Under
1xBet
2.55
Pinnacle
2.42
Superbet
2.40
Betano
2.30
Airbus UK over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
17.0%
@ 3.18-12.0%
Under
83.0%
@ 1.30+12.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.40
1xBet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Under
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.27
Airbus UK over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
3.0%
@ 7.90-8.7%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.05+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.30
Betano
7.50
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
Holywell over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
34.6%
@ 2.21-7.3%
Under
65.4%
@ 1.59+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.27
Pinnacle
2.25
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.66
Pinnacle
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Betano
1.55
Superbet
1.54
Holywell over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.1%
@ 6.93-5.1%
Under
91.9%
@ 1.06+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.40
Betano
6.70
1xBet
6.70
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
Holywell over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.8%
Under
99.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Airbus UK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.63
0.53
1.85
0.38
1.47
0.65
vs Stronger (27)
1.52
0.56
1.73
0.45
1.38
0.62
vs Similar (3)
2.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.03
1.27
0.80
0.93
1.27
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.00
1.33
0.83
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.00
1.43
0.71
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.7%
@ 1.11-2.1%
Under 0.5
19.3%
@ 5.37+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
Under
1xBet
6.10
William Hil
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
Betano
5.00
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
51.2%
@ 1.63-5.5%
Under 1.5
48.8%
@ 2.13+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Betano
1.65
William Hil
1.65
10Bet
1.62
Under
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.18
10Bet
2.15
Betano
2.12
Bet365
2.10
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
20.9%
@ 2.85-11.2%
Under 2.5
79.1%
@ 1.35+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.00
Superbet
2.92
Betano
2.85
William Hil
2.80
Marathonbet
2.78
Under
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
67.9%
@ 1.32-2.2%
Under
32.1%
@ 3.10+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
1xBet
1.30
Under
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.00
Airbus UK over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
28.5%
@ 2.47-8.8%
Under
71.5%
@ 1.47+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
2.60
Betano
2.50
1xBet
2.40
Marathonbet
2.38
Under
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.40
Airbus UK over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
9.0%
@ 5.45-8.0%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.11+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
Holywell over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
41.9%
@ 1.86-7.6%
Under
58.1%
@ 1.83+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.92
Betano
1.87
Marathonbet
1.87
1xBet
1.78
Under
1xBet
1.92
Betano
1.83
Marathonbet
1.79
Superbet
1.78
Holywell over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.1%
@ 5.15-7.8%
Under
89.9%
@ 1.12+7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
Betano
4.90
1xBet
4.90
Under
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.09
Holywell over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 10.00-7.3%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.02
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.2%
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
+7.6%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
98.9%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
-
-
-
-
+9.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+7.3%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
97.2%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+11.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.0%
1.05
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+8.7%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
96.0%
1.14
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.17
Superbet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+15.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
95.6%
1.08
Bet365
1.10
Betano
1.10
1xBet
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
93.5%
1.09
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.12
Superbet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.06
+10.2%
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
92.6%
1.01
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
-0.2%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.9%
1.06
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+5.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
91.0%
1.14
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.17
Betfair
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Superbet
1.17
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.0%
1.11
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.11
-
-
-
+8.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.9%
1.12
Betano
1.14
1xBet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.09
-
-
+7.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.18
William Hil
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Marathonbet
1.19
Betano
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+8.4%
✗ Miss
Under 6.5
84.9%
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-4.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
83.0%
1.30
1xBet
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Betano
1.27
-
-
+12.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 goals
81.6%
1.42
Pinnacle
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betano
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Unibet
1.42
+16.8%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
81.0%
1.39
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.44
10Bet
1.44
Superbet
1.43
Bet365
1.40
+15.2%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.12
Superbet
1.11
1xBet
1.09
-2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
79.1%
1.35
Betano
1.37
William Hil
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Bet365
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+11.2%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.4%
1.19
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.20
-2.2%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
72.7%
1.09
Bet365
1.12
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.09
-10.3%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
71.5%
1.47
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.49
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.40
-
+8.8%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Airbus UK and Holywell have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Airbus UK and Holywell have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Airbus UK and Holywell have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Airbus UK and Holywell have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Caernarfon Town
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Ammanford AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin