Airbus UK face The New Saints with the model favouring an away win, a 50% chance of victory for the visitors. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, but the most likely total is two goals, a 23% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 11.6% chance. Airbus, playing at home against a stronger opponent, has averaged 3.17 goals scored and 0.83 conceded, while The New Saints, on a five-game winning streak away from home, average 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded against weaker sides. The home win probability is 25%, a draw 25%, and the away win 50%. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.6%, Under 6.5 at 96.3%, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.2%, Under 5.5 at 90.9%, Away +2 handicap at 89.2%, Away under 3.5 goals at 88.8%, Home under 2.5 goals at 86.8%, and Away over 0.5 goals at 83.8%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Airbus UK win
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
The New Saints win
50.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Airbus UK
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
0.97
3.29
0.71
2.19
1.19
vs Stronger (27)
2.59
1.04
3.17
0.83
2.13
1.20
vs Similar (3)
3.67
0.33
4.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.47
0.80
2.57
0.79
2.38
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
2.48
0.79
2.57
0.79
2.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
82.1%
Under 1.5
17.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
59.2%
Under 2.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
36.8%
Under 3.5
63.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
60.6%
No
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.6%
1-2
9.7%
0-2
7.8%
0-1
7.5%
2-1
6.5%
2-2
6.0%
1-3
5.9%
0-0
5.7%
Airbus UK goals ↓
The New Saints goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
7.5%
7.8%
4.8%
2.2%
1
4.7%
12%
9.7%
5.9%
2.7%
2
3.5%
6.5%
6.0%
3.6%
1.7%
3
1.5%
2.7%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
4
0.4%
0.8%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Airbus UK goals (down), columns = The New Saints goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Airbus UK is 1.17 points worse than The New Saints in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 2.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Airbus UK is 0.83 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 2.67).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Airbus UK is 1.00 goals worse than The New Saints in terms of goals conceded per game (1.50 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Airbus UK or Draw
49.6%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers Airbus UK + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK or The New Saints
75.0%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers Airbus UK + The New Saints
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or The New Saints
75.4%
Avg Implied -
25%
25%
50%
covers Draw + The New Saints
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5
Over
70.9%
Under
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 1.5
Over
34.9%
Under
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 2.5
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 3.5
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5
Over
84.0%
Under
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5
Over
54.7%
Under
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5
Over
27.9%
Under
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 3.5
Over
11.4%
Under
88.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Airbus UK, so a minus line means Airbus UK give that many goals of a start and The New Saints receive them. At -1, Airbus UK must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Airbus UK win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Airbus UK)
Airbus UK -2
3.4%
Draw -2
7.1%
The New Saints +2
89.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Airbus UK)
Airbus UK -1
10.5%
Draw -1
14.1%
The New Saints +1
75.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Airbus UK)
Airbus UK +1
49.6%
Draw +1
21.5%
The New Saints -1
28.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Airbus UK)
Airbus UK +2
71.1%
Draw +2
15.7%
The New Saints -2
13.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Airbus UK
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.47
1.36
0.29
0.75
0.62
vs Stronger (27)
1.04
0.52
1.33
0.33
0.80
0.67
vs Similar (3)
1.00
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.30
0.93
0.36
1.06
0.25
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.03
0.31
0.93
0.36
1.13
0.27
Clean sheet %
80% (+52pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.0%
Under 0.5
27.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
44.4%
Under 1.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
19.2%
Under 2.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5 HT
Over
34.6%
Under
65.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.6%
Under
91.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.9%
Under
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 HT
Over
31.4%
Under
68.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 HT
Over
14.3%
Under
85.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Airbus UK
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.67
0.50
1.93
0.43
1.44
0.56
vs Stronger (27)
1.56
0.52
1.83
0.50
1.33
0.53
vs Similar (3)
2.67
0.33
2.50
0.00
3.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (The New Saints) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
The New Saints
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.50
1.64
0.43
1.31
0.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (1)
2.00
1.00
-
-
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (29)
1.45
0.48
1.64
0.43
1.27
0.53
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Airbus UK) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.2%
Under 0.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.0%
Under 1.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
26.4%
Under 2.5
73.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Airbus UK over/under 0.5 2H
Over
41.2%
Under
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.7%
Under
89.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airbus UK over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.5%
Under
97.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 0.5 2H
Over
71.6%
Under
28.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 1.5 2H
Over
32.9%
Under
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
The New Saints over/under 2.5 2H
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
82.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
The New Saints · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rory Holden25%
Jordan Williams14%
Declan McManus12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Ashley Baker25%
Declan McManus25%
Sion Bradley17%
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Connor Roberts12%
Daniel Redmond12%
Joshua Daniels12%
Danny Davies12%
Daniel Williams12%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Leo Smith0%
Josh Pask0%
Adam Wilson0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jordan Williams14%
Ryan Brobbell14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Declan McManus0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Declan McManus25%
Jordan Williams14%
Adrian Cieślewicz0%
Ashley Baker0%
Rory Holden0%
Jordan Marshall0%
Connor Roberts0%
Jack Bodenham0%
Ryan Brobbell0%
Ben Clark0%
Daniel Redmond0%
Leo Smith0%
Sion Bradley0%
Josh Pask0%
Joshua Daniels0%
Danny Davies0%
Adam Wilson0%
Daniel Williams0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Airbus UK's squad is €2m less valuable than The New Saints's (€0m vs €3m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Airbus UK's attack is €1m less valuable than The New Saints's (€0m vs €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Airbus UK and The New Saints have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Airbus UK and The New Saints have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →