Airdrie United’s home record shows a modest 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded against similar opposition, while Alloa Athletic’s away form is more volatile, averaging 1.67 goals scored but conceding 2.67. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected 2.2 goals, most likely a 1-1 draw. The probabilities are 32 % for a home win, 32 % for a draw and 37 % for an away win, making an away win the favoured result. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.7 % chance. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.3 %), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8 %), Under 5.5 (97.6 %), Away under 3.5 goals (97.1 %), Under 4.5 (92.9 %), Home under 2.5 goals (91.1 %) and Away under 2.5 goals (89.2 %). The match is poised for a defensive stalemate, with Alloa’s recent two-game winning run hinting that they may edge the result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Airdrie United win
31.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
33.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic win
35.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Airdrie United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.25
1.31
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.62
1.15
1.46
0.85
1.77
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alloa Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.46
1.38
0.92
1.47
1.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
-
-
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.00
1.33
0.56
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
1.71
1.50
1.75
1.40
1.70
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
59.6%
Under 1.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
31.2%
Under 2.5
68.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
13.5%
Under 3.5
86.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
40.2%
No
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.5%
1-1
14.9%
0-1
13.0%
1-0
12.0%
0-2
7.3%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
6.4%
2-0
6.3%
Airdrie United goals ↓
Alloa Athletic goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
13%
7.3%
2.5%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.3%
0.6%
2
6.3%
6.4%
3.2%
1.1%
0.3%
3
2.0%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.5%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Airdrie United goals (down), columns = Alloa Athletic goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Airdrie United and Alloa Athletic are level in average points per game (both 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Airdrie United and Alloa Athletic are level in goals scored per game (both 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Airdrie United and Alloa Athletic are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Airdrie United
For 3.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 17.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alloa Athletic
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 1.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.2
9.4
11.0
0.6
0.7
0.6
16.9
15.5
18.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
10.2
9.4
11.0
0.7
0.8
0.7
16.9
15.5
18.0
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
60%
40%
80%
12%
12%
12%
11%
0%
20%
% under line
40%
60%
20%
88%
88%
88%
89%
100%
80%
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alloa Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (29)
10.0
-
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
22.0
-
22.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
10.0
-
10.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
22.0
-
22.0
vs Weaker (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
0%
0%
0%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
100%
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.5%
Under 9.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
51.4%
Under 3.5
48.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
60.6%
Under 21.5
39.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Airdrie United or Draw
65.0%
Avg Implied -
31%
34%
35%
covers Airdrie United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United or Alloa Athletic
66.1%
Avg Implied -
31%
34%
35%
covers Airdrie United + Alloa Athletic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Alloa Athletic
68.9%
Avg Implied -
31%
34%
35%
covers Draw + Alloa Athletic
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5
Over
61.0%
Under
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5
Over
63.8%
Under
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5
Over
27.0%
Under
73.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5
Over
8.3%
Under
91.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 3.5
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Airdrie United, so a minus line means Airdrie United give that many goals of a start and Alloa Athletic receive them. At -1, Airdrie United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Airdrie United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United -2
3.2%
Draw -2
8.5%
Alloa Athletic +2
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United -1
11.7%
Draw -1
19.4%
Alloa Athletic +1
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United +1
65.0%
Draw +1
21.0%
Alloa Athletic -1
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United +2
86.1%
Draw +2
9.9%
Alloa Athletic -2
4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.31
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.69
0.23
0.69
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alloa Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.86
0.46
0.38
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.56
0.11
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
1.21
0.25
1.00
0.60
1.30
Clean sheet %
54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
67.4%
Under 0.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
28.5%
Under 1.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
9.1%
Under 2.5
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
35.7%
Under
64.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
51.2%
Under
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.4%
Under
97.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.94
0.75
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.92
0.92
0.77
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Alloa Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.61
0.92
0.54
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.62
0.78
0.44
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
1.25
0.75
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
75.7%
Under 0.5
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.2%
Under 1.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
18.7%
Under 2.5
81.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
39.3%
Under
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
8.9%
Under
91.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.6%
Under
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
23.1%
Under
76.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.9%
Under
95.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
97.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 1.5 HT goals
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Hamilton Academical
Ross County
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Queen of the South