Airdrie United’s defensive record at home is modest, conceding 1.46 goals per game, while Cove Rangers have been a bit more porous on the road, giving up 1.92. The model favours a home win, with a 37% chance, a draw at 33%, and an away win at 31%. The expected total goals hover just over two, 2.1, and the most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, a 14.8% chance. Airdrie’s average of 1.15 goals scored at home against similar opposition and Cove Rangers’ 1.5 away goals for similar opponents suggest a tight, low-scoring affair. The suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (98.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.4%), Under 4.5 (93.8%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.2%), and Home under 2.5 goals (89.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Airdrie United win
36.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
32.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers win
30.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Airdrie United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.25
1.31
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.62
1.15
1.46
0.85
1.77
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.40
1.21
1.00
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
1.38
1.54
1.25
1.17
1.50
1.92
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.83
1.00
0.00
0.25
1.25
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
63.2%
Under 1.5
36.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
34.9%
Under 2.5
65.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.0%
Under 3.5
84.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
43.3%
No
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.8%
0-0
13.7%
1-0
12.3%
0-1
10.8%
2-0
7.6%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
6.6%
0-2
6.0%
Airdrie United goals ↓
Cove Rangers goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
11%
6.0%
2.0%
0.5%
1
12%
15%
6.6%
2.2%
0.5%
2
7.6%
7.5%
3.7%
1.2%
0.3%
3
2.8%
2.8%
1.4%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.8%
0.8%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Airdrie United goals (down), columns = Cove Rangers goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Airdrie United is 0.22 points better than Cove Rangers in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.06).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Airdrie United is 0.22 goals better than Cove Rangers in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.14).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Airdrie United is 0.22 goals worse than Cove Rangers in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.22).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Airdrie United
For 3.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 17.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cove Rangers
For 4.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 10.2 · Total 22.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
11.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
17.1
15.5
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.1
9.4
11.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
17.1
15.5
18.8
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
40%
75%
10%
12%
8%
12%
0%
25%
% under line
44%
60%
25%
90%
88%
92%
88%
100%
75%
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.8
10.3
2.1
2.6
1.5
21.1
21.3
20.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (40)
9.6
9.3
9.8
1.8
2.0
1.6
21.2
20.4
21.8
vs Weaker (10)
9.4
7.0
11.8
3.1
5.5
1.5
20.8
24.0
17.5
% over line
52%
38%
65%
26%
42%
12%
45%
38%
53%
% under line
48%
62%
35%
74%
58%
88%
55%
62%
47%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
54.2%
Under 9.5
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
47.1%
Under 3.5
52.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
50.6%
Under 21.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Airdrie United or Draw
69.5%
Avg Implied -
37%
33%
31%
covers Airdrie United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United or Cove Rangers
67.4%
Avg Implied -
37%
33%
31%
covers Airdrie United + Cove Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Cove Rangers
63.1%
Avg Implied -
37%
33%
31%
covers Draw + Cove Rangers
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5
Over
67.0%
Under
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5
Over
30.4%
Under
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5
Over
10.1%
Under
89.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 3.5
Over
2.6%
Under
97.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5
Over
62.7%
Under
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5
Over
25.9%
Under
74.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5
Over
7.8%
Under
92.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Airdrie United, so a minus line means Airdrie United give that many goals of a start and Cove Rangers receive them. At -1, Airdrie United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Airdrie United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United -2
4.9%
Draw -2
10.7%
Cove Rangers +2
84.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United -1
15.6%
Draw -1
21.3%
Cove Rangers +1
63.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United +1
69.5%
Draw +1
18.7%
Cove Rangers -1
11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United +2
88.2%
Draw +2
8.5%
Cove Rangers -2
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.31
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.69
0.23
0.69
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.0
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.57
0.29
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.46
0.54
0.25
0.58
0.67
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.00
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.94
0.75
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.92
0.92
0.77
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Cove Rangers) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cove Rangers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.83
0.93
0.50
0.69
1.12
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (24)
0.92
1.00
1.00
0.58
0.83
1.42
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.25
0.25
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cove Rangers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
88.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
85.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
84.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5 cards
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Queen of the South