Airdrie United head into the match after a 0-0 draw with East Fife, their last five showing two losses and three draws, a modest form that leaves the home side vulnerable. Hamilton Academical, unbeaten in five outings and having edged Cove Rangers 1-0, arrive with a stronger record and a clear edge on the road. The model therefore favours an away win, assigning a 63% probability to Hamilton triumphing. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely scoreline 0-1 for Hamilton at 16.1%. Airdrie’s home form shows they average 1.15 goals scored and 1.46 conceded against similar opponents, while Hamilton’s away numbers are 0.78 scored and 1.33 conceded. The home win, draw and away win probabilities are 12%, 25% and 63% respectively. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Home under 2.5 goals (97.7%), Under 5.5 (97.1%), Away +2 handicap (97.0%), Under 4.5 (91.8%) and Away under 3.5 goals (90.8%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Airdrie United win
11.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical win
63.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Airdrie United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.25
1.31
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.62
1.15
1.46
0.85
1.77
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamilton Academical
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.27
1.40
1.33
1.27
1.20
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
1.43
1.00
1.50
2.00
1.33
vs Similar (17)
1.06
1.24
1.38
1.12
0.78
1.33
vs Weaker (6)
2.00
1.17
2.00
1.67
2.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.7%
Under 1.5
32.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.1%
Under 2.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.8%
Under 3.5
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
37.7%
No
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
16.1%
0-2
14.5%
1-1
11.3%
0-0
11.2%
1-2
8.7%
0-3
8.2%
1-0
5.0%
1-3
4.9%
Airdrie United goals ↓
Hamilton Academical goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
16%
15%
8.2%
3.5%
1
5.0%
11%
8.7%
4.9%
2.1%
2
1.8%
3.1%
2.6%
1.5%
0.6%
3
0.4%
0.6%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Airdrie United goals (down), columns = Hamilton Academical goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Airdrie United is 1.22 points worse than Hamilton Academical in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 2.50).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Montrose
1.33
Peterhead
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Airdrie United is 1.14 goals worse than Hamilton Academical in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Airdrie United is 0.06 goals better than Hamilton Academical in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Airdrie United
For 3.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 17.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Hamilton Academical
For 6.0 · Against 4.5 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.5 · Against 7.5 · Total 16.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
11.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
17.1
15.5
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (44)
10.1
9.4
11.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
17.1
15.5
18.8
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
40%
75%
10%
12%
8%
12%
0%
25%
% under line
44%
60%
25%
90%
88%
92%
88%
100%
75%
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamilton Academical
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
12.0
9.0
0.2
0.1
0.2
16.0
23.0
9.0
vs Stronger (12)
9.0
-
9.0
0.1
0.0
0.1
9.0
-
9.0
vs Similar (32)
12.0
12.0
-
0.2
0.1
0.3
23.0
23.0
-
vs Weaker (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
50%
100%
0%
2%
0%
4%
50%
100%
0%
% under line
50%
0%
100%
98%
100%
96%
50%
0%
100%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
50.2%
Under 9.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
53.7%
Under 3.5
46.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
52.9%
Under 21.5
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Airdrie United or Draw
37.0%
Avg Implied -
12%
25%
63%
covers Airdrie United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United or Hamilton Academical
74.7%
Avg Implied -
12%
25%
63%
covers Airdrie United + Hamilton Academical
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Hamilton Academical
88.3%
Avg Implied -
12%
25%
63%
covers Draw + Hamilton Academical
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5
Over
45.0%
Under
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5
Over
12.1%
Under
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5
Over
2.3%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 3.5
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5
Over
81.6%
Under
18.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5
Over
50.4%
Under
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5
Over
24.0%
Under
76.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 3.5
Over
9.2%
Under
90.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Airdrie United, so a minus line means Airdrie United give that many goals of a start and Hamilton Academical receive them. At -1, Airdrie United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Airdrie United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United -2
0.5%
Draw -2
2.5%
Hamilton Academical +2
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United -1
3.0%
Draw -1
8.7%
Hamilton Academical +1
88.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United +1
37.0%
Draw +1
26.4%
Hamilton Academical -1
36.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United +2
63.4%
Draw +2
20.0%
Hamilton Academical -2
16.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.31
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.69
0.23
0.69
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamilton Academical
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.47
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.27
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
0.57
1.00
0.75
1.00
0.33
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.35
0.50
0.50
0.44
0.22
vs Weaker (6)
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.94
0.75
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.92
0.92
0.77
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton Academical) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Hamilton Academical
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.80
0.73
0.67
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
0.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.88
0.88
0.62
0.33
1.11
vs Weaker (6)
1.33
0.50
1.33
0.67
1.33
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton Academical over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
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Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Queen of the South