Airdrie United are favoured to win, with a 42% chance of victory, 31% for a draw and 27% for Montrose. The match is expected to see 2.3 goals on average, with the most likely total of 2 goals occurring 28% of the time. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.4% probability. Airdrie have scored 1.15 goals and conceded 1.46 at home against similar opposition, while Montrose average 1.09 goals scored and 2.27 conceded on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.1%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.2%), Under 5.5 (97.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Away under 2.5 goals (92.4%), Under 4.5 (92.1%) and Home +2 handicap (89.8%). Airdrie’s recent form shows a draw streak, while Montrose are on a two-game winning run.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Airdrie United win
42.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montrose win
26.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Airdrie United
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.25
1.31
0.79
1.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.62
1.15
1.46
0.85
1.77
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.75
1.67
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.80
1.60
1.60
1.27
2.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.38
1.90
1.70
1.50
1.09
2.27
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.56
1.40
1.80
1.75
1.25
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
67.3%
Under 1.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
39.3%
Under 2.5
60.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
19.2%
Under 3.5
80.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
46.3%
No
53.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
11.8%
0-1
8.9%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
8.4%
1-2
6.4%
0-2
5.0%
Airdrie United goals ↓
Montrose goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
8.9%
5.0%
1.6%
0.4%
1
12%
14%
6.4%
2.1%
0.5%
2
8.6%
8.4%
4.1%
1.3%
0.3%
3
3.7%
3.6%
1.8%
0.6%
0.1%
4
1.2%
1.2%
0.6%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Airdrie United goals (down), columns = Montrose goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Airdrie United is 0.11 points better than Montrose in terms of average points per game (1.28 vs 1.17).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Airdrie United is 0.02 goals better than Montrose in terms of goals scored per game (1.36 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Airdrie United is 0.42 goals better than Montrose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.44 vs 1.86).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Airdrie United
For 3.8 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 9.3 · Total 17.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Montrose
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 11.7 · Total 23.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Airdrie United
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
9.4
11.0
0.6
0.7
0.5
17.1
15.5
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (43)
10.1
9.4
11.0
0.7
0.8
0.5
17.1
15.5
18.8
vs Weaker (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
56%
40%
75%
10%
12%
8%
12%
0%
25%
% under line
44%
60%
25%
90%
88%
92%
88%
100%
75%
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
23.6
21.8
25.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (38)
9.0
9.5
8.4
3.0
3.2
2.9
24.6
23.3
26.0
vs Weaker (12)
7.9
6.0
9.8
1.8
1.2
2.3
20.1
16.2
24.0
% over line
32%
32%
33%
44%
33%
54%
68%
58%
78%
% under line
68%
68%
67%
56%
67%
46%
32%
42%
22%
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.4%
Under 9.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
56.2%
Under 3.5
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
61.5%
Under 21.5
38.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Airdrie United or Draw
73.1%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Airdrie United + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United or Montrose
69.2%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Airdrie United + Montrose
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Montrose
57.8%
Avg Implied -
42%
31%
27%
covers Draw + Montrose
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5
Over
72.3%
Under
27.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5
Over
36.7%
Under
63.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5
Over
13.9%
Under
86.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5
Over
62.3%
Under
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5
Over
25.5%
Under
74.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5
Over
7.6%
Under
92.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 3.5
Over
1.8%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Airdrie United, so a minus line means Airdrie United give that many goals of a start and Montrose receive them. At -1, Airdrie United must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Airdrie United win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United -2
7.0%
Draw -2
12.8%
Montrose +2
80.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United -1
19.8%
Draw -1
22.4%
Montrose +1
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United +1
73.1%
Draw +1
16.7%
Montrose -1
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Airdrie United)
Airdrie United +2
89.8%
Draw +2
7.4%
Montrose -2
2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.60
0.31
0.56
0.43
0.64
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.69
0.23
0.69
0.46
0.69
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.80
0.60
0.67
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.67
0.90
0.50
0.55
0.82
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.67
0.60
0.80
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Airdrie United
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.94
0.75
0.36
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.92
0.92
0.77
0.38
1.08
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
0.75
1.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Montrose
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.13
0.80
1.00
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.67
1.24
0.80
1.00
0.55
1.45
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.89
0.80
1.00
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Airdrie United) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Airdrie United over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Airdrie United over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
75.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 25.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Alloa Athletic
East Kilbride
Peterhead
East Fife
Cove Rangers
Queen of the South