This opponent (Lorient) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.77
1.07
1.33
0.93
2.20
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.67
0.67
2.67
0.67
2.67
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.71
1.09
1.00
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
78.3%
Under 1.5
21.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
53.4%
@ 2.22+10.4%
Under 2.5
46.6%
@ 1.67-10.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
31.1%
Under 3.5
68.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.8%
No
43.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
2-1
9.5%
1-0
8.7%
2-0
8.1%
0-0
7.2%
1-2
6.7%
0-1 ✓
5.9%
2-2
5.5%
Ajaccio goals ↓
Lorient goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.2%
5.9%
4.1%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.7%
13%
6.7%
2.6%
0.8%
2
8.1%
9.5%
5.5%
2.2%
0.6%
3
4.4%
5.2%
3.0%
1.2%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.1%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajaccio goals (down), columns = Lorient goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.21
Marseille
1.92
Rennes
1.79
Lille
1.76
Monaco
1.71
Lyon
1.63
Clermont Foot
1.55
Nice
1.53
Lorient
1.45
Reims
1.34
Montpellier
1.32
Toulouse
1.26
Stade Brestois 29
1.16
Strasbourg
1.05
Nantes
0.95
Auxerre
0.92
Ajaccio
0.68
Estac Troyes
0.63
Angers
0.47
Ajaccio is 0.76 points worse than Lorient in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.34
Monaco
1.84
Rennes
1.82
Lens
1.79
Marseille
1.76
Lille
1.71
Montpellier
1.71
Lyon
1.71
Lorient
1.37
Strasbourg
1.34
Toulouse
1.34
Nice
1.26
Estac Troyes
1.18
Clermont Foot
1.18
Reims
1.18
Stade Brestois 29
1.16
Nantes
0.97
Auxerre
0.92
Angers
0.87
Ajaccio
0.61
Ajaccio is 0.76 goals worse than Lorient in terms of goals scored per game (0.61 vs 1.37).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lens
0.76
Nice
0.97
Rennes
1.03
Paris Saint Germain
1.05
Marseille
1.05
Lille
1.16
Reims
1.18
Lyon
1.24
Clermont Foot
1.29
Lorient
1.39
Stade Brestois 29
1.42
Nantes
1.45
Toulouse
1.50
Monaco
1.53
Strasbourg
1.55
Montpellier
1.63
Auxerre
1.66
Ajaccio
1.95
Estac Troyes
2.13
Angers
2.13
Ajaccio is 0.55 goals worse than Lorient in terms of goals conceded per game (1.95 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ajaccio
For 5.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.8 · Against 12.4 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lorient
For 4.2 · Against 4.8 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.4 · Against 12.3 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajaccio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.1
7.6
8.6
3.7
4.2
3.2
28.0
28.5
27.5
vs Stronger (17)
8.2
7.3
9.2
2.8
2.2
3.2
26.1
23.5
28.7
vs Similar (33)
8.1
7.8
8.4
4.2
5.1
3.2
28.7
30.4
27.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
33%
27%
39%
50%
54%
46%
82%
82%
83%
% under line
67%
73%
61%
50%
46%
54%
18%
18%
17%
This opponent (Lorient) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.6
8.8
3.7
4.3
3.2
24.5
26.2
22.7
vs Stronger (12)
9.3
10.0
8.9
2.9
3.4
2.6
23.4
25.0
22.3
vs Similar (32)
9.4
9.3
9.4
3.8
4.7
3.1
24.7
26.5
22.7
vs Weaker (6)
7.6
10.0
4.0
4.5
3.8
6.0
25.6
26.3
24.5
% over line
50%
52%
48%
54%
67%
42%
67%
78%
57%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
46%
33%
58%
33%
22%
43%
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nantes
10.3
Lens
10.2
Montpellier
10.1
Nice
10.0
Toulouse
10.0
Rennes
9.9
Lille
9.9
Marseille
9.8
Reims
9.8
Strasbourg
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris Saint Germain
9.4
Lyon
9.4
Estac Troyes
9.3
Lorient
9.1
Angers
9.0
Auxerre
9.0
Clermont Foot
9.0
Ajaccio
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lille
5.0
Lens
4.7
Estac Troyes
4.5
Montpellier
4.4
Monaco
4.3
Paris Saint Germain
4.3
Ajaccio
4.1
Stade Brestois 29
4.1
Marseille
4.1
Angers
4.0
Reims
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Nantes
4.0
Strasbourg
3.9
Clermont Foot
3.9
Rennes
3.9
Toulouse
3.8
Nice
3.7
Lyon
3.5
Auxerre
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ajaccio
28.2
Toulouse
27.4
Estac Troyes
25.9
Angers
25.1
Monaco
24.8
Nantes
24.4
Montpellier
24.4
Lorient
24.3
Strasbourg
24.0
Lyon
23.8
Reims
23.7
Lille
23.7
Stade Brestois 29
23.5
Clermont Foot
23.5
Auxerre
22.7
Nice
22.5
Rennes
22.4
Marseille
22.4
Lens
22.0
Paris Saint Germain
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
39.4%
Under 9.5
60.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
59.9%
Under 3.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
63.3%
Under 21.5
36.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajaccio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.33
0.50
0.36
0.19
0.31
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.58
0.83
0.50
0.17
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.22
0.17
0.25
0.25
0.20
0.10
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.77
0.53
0.47
0.13
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
1.33
0.33
1.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (21)
0.33
0.71
0.45
0.36
0.20
1.10
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
2.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajaccio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.37
0.43
0.29
0.62
0.44
vs Stronger (12)
0.33
0.50
0.17
0.33
0.50
0.67
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.28
0.62
0.25
0.70
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Lorient) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lorient
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
1.00
0.53
0.87
0.80
1.13
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.33
0.33
1.67
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.71
1.00
0.64
0.64
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Lorient over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 11.5 corners
81.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
78.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
78.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
77.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ajaccio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Youssef Belaïli29%
Mounaim El Idrissy19%
Romain Hamouma11%
Moussa Soumano7%
Bevic Moussiti Oko6%
Mickaël Barreto5%
Cedric Avinel4%
Thomas Mangani4%
Clement Vidal4%
Riad Nouri3%
Cyrille Bayala3%
Florian Chabrolle0%
Youssouf Koné0%
Ruan Potó0%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Fernand Mayembo0%
Vincent Marchetti0%
Benjamin Leroy0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Ismaël Diallo0%
Mathieu Coutadeur0%
Qazim Laci0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Mickaël Alphonse0%
Oumar Gonzalez0%
Moussa Djitté0%
Kevin Spadanuda0%
Yanis Cimignani0%
Kouamé Jean Fiacre Botué0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Gonzalez33%
Tony Strata33%
Ismaël Diallo32%
Mounaim El Idrissy31%
Youssouf Koné31%
Vincent Marchetti23%
Moussa Soumano21%
Clement Vidal19%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro17%
Mohamed Youssouf17%
Romain Hamouma16%
Thomas Mangani15%
Florian Chabrolle14%
Kevin Spadanuda14%
Youssef Belaïli12%
Fernand Mayembo9%
Riad Nouri9%
Cyrille Bayala9%
Cedric Avinel8%
Mickaël Alphonse8%
Mathieu Coutadeur7%
Bevic Moussiti Oko6%
Mickaël Barreto5%
Benjamin Leroy3%
Ruan Potó0%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Qazim Laci0%
Moussa Djitté0%
Yanis Cimignani0%
Kouamé Jean Fiacre Botué0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Youssef Belaïli18%
Romain Hamouma11%
Vincent Marchetti6%
Mickaël Barreto5%
Kevin Spadanuda5%
Thomas Mangani4%
Riad Nouri3%
Cyrille Bayala3%
Florian Chabrolle0%
Youssouf Koné0%
Ruan Potó0%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Fernand Mayembo0%
Benjamin Leroy0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Cedric Avinel0%
Ismaël Diallo0%
Mathieu Coutadeur0%
Qazim Laci0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Mounaim El Idrissy0%
Clement Vidal0%
Mickaël Alphonse0%
Oumar Gonzalez0%
Bevic Moussiti Oko0%
Moussa Djitté0%
Yanis Cimignani0%
Kouamé Jean Fiacre Botué0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Youssef Belaïli18%
Mounaim El Idrissy16%
Bevic Moussiti Oko12%
Romain Hamouma11%
Mickaël Barreto5%
Vincent Marchetti3%
Cyrille Bayala3%
Florian Chabrolle0%
Youssouf Koné0%
Ruan Potó0%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Fernand Mayembo0%
Benjamin Leroy0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Cedric Avinel0%
Ismaël Diallo0%
Mathieu Coutadeur0%
Qazim Laci0%
Riad Nouri0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Clement Vidal0%
Mickaël Alphonse0%
Oumar Gonzalez0%
Moussa Djitté0%
Kevin Spadanuda0%
Yanis Cimignani0%
Kouamé Jean Fiacre Botué0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Lorient
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Terem Moffi50%
Armand Lauriente33%
Dango Ouattara33%
Romain Faivre25%
Quentin Boisgard20%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng20%
Ibrahima Kone16%
Enzo Le Fée14%
Théo Le Bris7%
Stéphane Diarra7%
Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni7%
Bamo Meïté6%
Yoann Cathline4%
Julien Ponceau3%
Montassar Talbi3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bonke Innocent0%
Vincent Le Goff0%
Julien Laporte0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Jean-Victor Makengo0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Vito Mannone0%
Adil Aouchiche0%
Chrislain Matsima0%
Siriné Doucouré0%
Ayman Kari0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Bamo Meïté29%
Igor Silva29%
Laurent Abergel21%
Gedeon Kalulu21%
Bonke Innocent20%
Quentin Boisgard20%
Enzo Le Fée14%
Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni14%
Dango Ouattara11%
Ibrahima Kone8%
Jean-Victor Makengo7%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng7%
Vito Mannone6%
Terem Moffi6%
Julien Laporte5%
Stéphane Diarra4%
Julien Ponceau3%
Vincent Le Goff3%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Armand Lauriente0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Romain Faivre0%
Adil Aouchiche0%
Chrislain Matsima0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Siriné Doucouré0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ayman Kari0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Dango Ouattara22%
Romain Faivre19%
Enzo Le Fée17%
Gedeon Kalulu14%
Julien Ponceau13%
Siriné Doucouré8%
Théo Le Bris7%
Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni7%
Montassar Talbi5%
Yoann Cathline4%
Bonke Innocent4%
Laurent Abergel3%
Ibrahima Kone3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Armand Lauriente0%
Vincent Le Goff0%
Julien Laporte0%
Jean-Victor Makengo0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Stéphane Diarra0%
Vito Mannone0%
Terem Moffi0%
Adil Aouchiche0%
Chrislain Matsima0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng0%
Ayman Kari0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Armand Lauriente100%
Terem Moffi33%
Dango Ouattara33%
Quentin Boisgard20%
Romain Faivre12%
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng7%
Ibrahima Kone5%
Stéphane Diarra4%
Julien Ponceau3%
Enzo Le Fée3%
Igor Silva0%
Yvon Mvogo0%
Bonke Innocent0%
Vincent Le Goff0%
Julien Laporte0%
Laurent Abergel0%
Jean-Victor Makengo0%
Gedeon Kalulu0%
Montassar Talbi0%
Vito Mannone0%
Adil Aouchiche0%
Darline Zidane Yongwa Ngameni0%
Chrislain Matsima0%
Théo Le Bris0%
Siriné Doucouré0%
Bamo Meïté0%
Yoann Cathline0%
Ayman Kari0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
France: Ligue 1 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Lens
Marseille
Rennes
Lille
Monaco
Lyon
Clermont Foot
Nice
Reims
Montpellier
Toulouse
Stade Brestois 29
Strasbourg
Nantes
Auxerre
Estac Troyes
Angers