This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.17
1.44
2.19
0.79
2.14
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
2.89
1.40
3.00
0.25
2.75
vs Similar (21)
1.24
1.86
1.45
1.82
1.00
1.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
77.4%
Under 2.5
22.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
58.3%
Under 3.5
41.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.6%
No
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-0
12.1%
4-0
10.6%
2-0
10.4%
5-0
7.4%
3-1
7.1%
4-1
6.2%
2-1
6.1%
1-0
5.6%
Ajax goals ↓
Excelsior goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.0%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
1
5.6%
3.9%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
2
10%
6.1%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
3
12%
7.1%
2.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
11%
6.2%
1.8%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajax goals (down), columns = Excelsior goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ajax
2.53
PSV Eindhoven
2.44
Feyenoord
1.91
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Vitesse
1.56
Utrecht
1.56
Heracles
1.41
Groningen
1.32
Den Haag
1.32
Willem II
1.29
VVV Venlo
1.21
Heerenveen
1.21
PEC Zwolle
1.15
Emmen
1.12
Fortuna Sittard
1.00
Excelsior
0.97
De Graafschap
0.85
NAC Breda
0.68
Ajax is 1.56 points better than Excelsior in terms of average points per game (2.53 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ajax
3.50
PSV Eindhoven
2.88
Feyenoord
2.21
Vitesse
2.06
AZ Alkmaar
1.88
Heerenveen
1.88
Heracles
1.79
Utrecht
1.76
Den Haag
1.71
Willem II
1.71
Fortuna Sittard
1.47
VVV Venlo
1.38
Excelsior
1.35
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Emmen
1.21
Groningen
1.15
De Graafschap
1.12
NAC Breda
0.85
Ajax is 2.15 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals scored per game (3.50 vs 1.35).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
PSV Eindhoven
0.76
Ajax
0.94
Groningen
1.21
Feyenoord
1.21
AZ Alkmaar
1.26
Vitesse
1.50
Utrecht
1.50
PEC Zwolle
1.68
Den Haag
1.85
VVV Venlo
1.85
Heracles
2.00
Willem II
2.12
Emmen
2.12
Heerenveen
2.15
NAC Breda
2.18
De Graafschap
2.21
Excelsior
2.32
Fortuna Sittard
2.35
Ajax is 1.38 goals better than Excelsior in terms of goals conceded per game (0.94 vs 2.32).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ajax
For 6.5 · Against 3.6 · Total 10.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.6 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.5 · Total 24.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Excelsior
For 4.7 · Against 7.6 · Total 12.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.1 · Against 12.4 · Total 22.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.1
11.4
10.9
3.4
3.1
3.6
23.0
22.4
23.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
10.6
11.5
9.6
4.5
5.0
3.8
27.0
25.3
29.0
vs Weaker (39)
11.3
11.3
11.2
3.1
2.5
3.5
21.9
21.5
22.2
% over line
64%
68%
60%
46%
44%
48%
58%
52%
64%
% under line
36%
32%
40%
54%
56%
52%
42%
48%
36%
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
12.2
12.7
11.8
3.1
2.6
3.7
21.8
20.0
23.7
vs Stronger (15)
12.5
12.2
12.9
3.0
2.8
3.3
19.7
18.2
21.4
vs Similar (35)
12.1
12.9
11.3
3.2
2.5
3.8
22.7
20.8
24.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
76%
80%
72%
42%
24%
60%
56%
44%
68%
% under line
24%
20%
28%
58%
76%
40%
44%
56%
32%
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Excelsior
12.2
Fortuna Sittard
11.3
Den Haag
11.2
Ajax
11.1
AZ Alkmaar
11.0
PSV Eindhoven
11.0
Feyenoord
10.9
Heracles
10.8
Vitesse
10.8
PEC Zwolle
10.7
NAC Breda
10.6
Emmen
10.5
Willem II
10.4
VVV Venlo
10.4
Utrecht
10.3
Groningen
9.8
Heerenveen
9.7
De Graafschap
9.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Fortuna Sittard
3.9
PEC Zwolle
3.8
PSV Eindhoven
3.8
De Graafschap
3.5
AZ Alkmaar
3.5
Groningen
3.4
NAC Breda
3.4
Ajax
3.4
Vitesse
3.4
Emmen
3.3
Willem II
3.3
VVV Venlo
3.3
Heracles
3.3
Den Haag
3.3
Excelsior
3.1
Utrecht
3.1
Heerenveen
2.9
Feyenoord
2.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
De Graafschap
24.3
Fortuna Sittard
24.3
Emmen
24.1
Heracles
24.1
Heerenveen
23.5
Vitesse
23.2
Willem II
23.1
PEC Zwolle
23.1
Ajax
23.0
NAC Breda
22.9
VVV Venlo
22.9
Groningen
22.8
Den Haag
22.7
Utrecht
22.6
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
Excelsior
21.8
PSV Eindhoven
21.7
Feyenoord
21.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
74.7%
Under 9.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
38.1%
Under 3.5
61.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
55.6%
Under 21.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.43
1.64
0.14
1.19
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.00
1.33
0.00
0.67
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.50
0.29
1.73
0.18
1.31
0.38
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.67
0.69
0.56
0.29
0.79
vs Stronger (9)
0.56
0.78
0.80
0.60
0.25
1.00
vs Similar (21)
0.48
0.62
0.64
0.55
0.30
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.47
2.36
0.43
1.69
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
0.83
2.33
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Weaker (24)
2.21
0.38
2.36
0.45
2.08
0.31
Clean sheet %
70% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Excelsior) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Excelsior
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.50
0.75
1.62
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
2.11
0.60
2.40
0.00
1.75
vs Similar (21)
0.76
1.24
0.82
1.27
0.70
1.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Excelsior over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
79.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5
77.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 9.5 corners
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ajax · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davy Klaassen57%
Tolu Arokodare50%
Julian Brandt43%
Mika Godts33%
Kasper Dolberg25%
Owen Wijndal25%
Marcos Leonardo25%
Anton Gaaei25%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Baas17%
Steven Berghuis14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Caio Henrique0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Youri Regeer0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucas Rosa40%
Youri Regeer29%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Aaron Bouwman25%
Davy Klaassen14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Marcos Leonardo12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Steven Berghuis0%
Maarten Paes0%
Tolu Arokodare0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Baas0%
Oscar Gloukh0%
Mika Godts0%
Dies Janse0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mika Godts67%
Steven Berghuis43%
Tolu Arokodare33%
Caio Henrique29%
Lucas Rosa20%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Regeer14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
Youri Baas0%
Anton Gaaei0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika Godts67%
Kasper Dolberg50%
Steven Berghuis43%
Marcos Leonardo38%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Tolu Arokodare17%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Regeer0%
Youri Baas0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Abdellah Ouazane0%
Excelsior · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Casper Widell33%
David Garden33%
Irakli Yegoian33%
Nesto Groen33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Jan Plug0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Simon Janssen33%
Jan Plug33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Irakli Yegoian67%
Simon Janssen33%
Ilano Silva Timas33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
David Garden0%
Nesto Groen0%
Aymen Sliti0%
Jan Plug0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
David Garden33%
Aymen Sliti33%
Stijn van Gassel0%
Simon Janssen0%
Casper Widell0%
Rick Meissen0%
Lennard Hartjes0%
Daniel van Vianen0%
Ilano Silva Timas0%
Irakli Yegoian0%
Nesto Groen0%
Jan Plug0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
UTR (26)
€61m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
WI (24)
€13m
NB (23)
€10m
HER (28)
€8m
VIT (23)
€7m
DG (21)
€6m
EMM (21)
€5m
VV (19)
€4m
Ajax's squad is €157m more valuable than Excelsior's (€173m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
GRO (7)
€12m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
VIT (9)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (13)
€4m
DG (8)
€2m
VV (6)
€1m
EMM (6)
€1m
Ajax's attack is €88m more valuable than Excelsior's (€95m vs €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
EMM (7)
€2m
NB (3)
€2m
DG (5)
€2m
HER (4)
€1m
VIT (3)
€1m
VV (3)
€0m
Ajax's midfield is €12m more valuable than Excelsior's (€15m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
PZ (10)
€10m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
NB (10)
€4m
HER (11)
€3m
DG (8)
€2m
VIT (11)
€2m
VV (10)
€2m
EMM (8)
€1m
Ajax's defence is €57m more valuable than Excelsior's (€63m vs €6m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2018/19 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
Vitesse
Utrecht
Heracles
Groningen
Willem II
Heerenveen
VVV Venlo
PEC Zwolle
Emmen
Fortuna Sittard
De Graafschap
NAC Breda