Ajax is expected to dominate Groningen in their Eredivisie match on the 21st of May, with a predicted 3.0 total goals and a most likely total of 2 goals. The model's pick is a home win, with a 56% chance of success, outperforming a 24% draw probability and a 19% away win probability. The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 11.5% probability. When facing weaker opponents, Ajax averages 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded at home. Groningen, however, struggles to score away, averaging 0.75 goals against stronger opponents, while conceding 1.75 goals. The model suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals with an 80.4% probability, which has indeed hit in the past. The home win percentage stands at 56%, the draw percentage at 24%, and the away win percentage at 19%. The model's selections include Over 1.5 (80.4%), with no edge noted.
Results analysis
Ajax's win extends their run of form, having now won two games in a row. The final score of 2-0 confirmed the home win result, as predicted by the model. The model correctly picked Ajax as the favourite, with a pre-match probability of 56%. The model's selection, Ajax to win, was correct. The model also suggested that Over 1.5 goals would hit, which indeed occurred, with a probability of 80.4%. Additionally, the most likely score of 2-1 was a narrow miss, while the predicted most likely total of 2 goals was slightly off.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ajax win✓ Hit
56.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Groningen win✗ Miss
19.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.47
1.64
1.36
2.00
1.56
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.00
2.00
1.00
1.80
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (21)
2.19
1.24
2.00
1.11
2.33
1.33
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.37
1.40
1.13
1.33
1.60
vs Stronger (7)
1.29
1.57
1.60
1.20
0.50
2.50
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.30
1.30
1.10
1.46
1.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.4%
Under 1.5
19.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.6%
Under 2.5
43.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.2%
Under 3.5
65.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
56.3%
No
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.5%
2-1
9.9%
2-0 ✓
9.5%
1-0
8.9%
3-1
6.3%
0-0
6.3%
3-0
6.0%
1-2
5.5%
Ajax goals ↓
Groningen goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.3%
4.4%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
1
8.9%
11%
5.5%
1.9%
0.5%
2
9.5%
9.9%
5.2%
1.8%
0.5%
3
6.0%
6.3%
3.3%
1.2%
0.3%
4
2.9%
3.0%
1.6%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajax goals (down), columns = Groningen goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Excelsior
1.12
PEC Zwolle
1.09
Telstar
1.09
FC Volendam
0.94
NAC Breda
0.91
Heracles
0.56
Ajax is 0.30 points better than Groningen in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.37).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.81
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.64
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Telstar
1.44
Groningen
1.40
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
NAC Breda
1.06
FC Volendam
1.03
Heracles
1.03
Ajax is 0.41 goals better than Groningen in terms of goals scored per game (1.81 vs 1.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.17
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.25
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
FC Volendam
1.62
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
NAC Breda
1.66
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Heracles
2.50
Ajax is 0.18 goals better than Groningen in terms of goals conceded per game (1.17 vs 1.34).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
NAC Breda
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
FC Volendam
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Heracles
45%
Ajax is 6.0 percentage points better than Groningen in terms of average possession (56% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ajax
For 4.2 · Against 6.7 · Total 10.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.2 · Against 10.4 · Total 19.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Groningen
For 6.2 · Against 6.0 · Total 12.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 0.8 · Total 2.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 9.2 · Total 19.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
9.8
10.2
3.5
3.2
3.8
21.9
23.9
20.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
9.5
10.0
9.0
3.9
3.3
4.4
25.1
25.4
24.7
vs Weaker (36)
10.2
9.6
10.7
3.4
3.2
3.6
20.7
23.2
18.4
% over line
52%
46%
58%
42%
33%
50%
54%
75%
35%
% under line
48%
54%
42%
58%
67%
50%
46%
25%
65%
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.1
10.9
9.4
3.4
3.4
3.4
20.5
19.9
21.0
vs Stronger (15)
8.9
10.4
7.5
3.1
3.6
2.6
20.4
19.7
21.0
vs Similar (34)
10.7
11.3
10.2
3.6
3.4
3.7
20.6
20.1
21.0
vs Weaker (1)
8.0
8.0
-
1.0
1.0
-
18.0
18.0
-
% over line
52%
58%
46%
42%
46%
38%
48%
42%
54%
% under line
48%
42%
54%
58%
54%
62%
52%
58%
46%
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.4
PSV Eindhoven
11.2
Fortuna Sittard
10.7
Heracles
10.7
Sparta Rotterdam
10.6
Telstar
10.5
FC Volendam
10.4
AZ Alkmaar
10.2
Heerenveen
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Ajax
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
10.0
Feyenoord
9.8
NAC Breda
9.8
Excelsior
9.7
Twente
9.6
Utrecht
9.5
PEC Zwolle
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
NEC Nijmegen
4.1
AZ Alkmaar
4.0
Feyenoord
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Twente
3.8
Utrecht
3.7
Ajax
3.7
NAC Breda
3.7
Heracles
3.6
Fortuna Sittard
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.6
Groningen
3.5
GO Ahead Eagles
3.4
FC Volendam
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.3
Telstar
3.3
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Fortuna Sittard
24.4
Heracles
24.2
NEC Nijmegen
23.4
Feyenoord
23.0
PEC Zwolle
23.0
NAC Breda
22.6
Utrecht
22.5
Telstar
22.4
FC Volendam
22.4
AZ Alkmaar
22.4
Excelsior
22.2
Ajax
21.9
Twente
21.2
Heerenveen
20.9
Groningen
20.5
Sparta Rotterdam
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
19.0
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
54.5%
Under 9.5
45.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.7%
Under 3.5
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
51.1%
Under 21.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.43
1.00
0.36
1.06
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.56
0.40
0.40
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (21)
1.38
0.38
1.33
0.33
1.42
0.42
Clean sheet %
63% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.60
0.40
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.57
0.60
0.20
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (23)
0.61
0.43
0.60
0.50
0.62
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajax over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.03
0.64
1.00
0.94
1.06
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.78
1.44
0.60
1.40
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (21)
0.81
0.86
0.67
0.78
0.92
0.92
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Groningen) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Groningen
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.90
0.80
0.73
0.80
1.07
vs Stronger (7)
0.86
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.87
0.70
0.60
0.85
1.08
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajax over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajax over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Groningen over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
87.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
80.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (50)
€323m
AJA (62)
€260m
FEY (32)
€216m
AA (60)
€205m
UTR (51)
€88m
TWE (27)
€84m
NN (28)
€62m
HEE (23)
€49m
GAE (31)
€36m
SR (26)
€32m
GRO (23)
€32m
PZ (29)
€23m
FS (28)
€22m
EXC (28)
€19m
FV (32)
€14m
HER (34)
€14m
TEL (24)
€12m
NB (26)
€11m
Ajax's squad is €228m more valuable than Groningen's (€260m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (19)
€139m
AJA (24)
€119m
AA (22)
€100m
FEY (13)
€78m
UTR (19)
€30m
NN (13)
€27m
TWE (10)
€26m
HEE (10)
€22m
GAE (12)
€17m
SR (9)
€13m
GRO (8)
€11m
PZ (12)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (7)
€7m
HER (14)
€7m
FV (12)
€4m
NB (10)
€4m
TEL (8)
€4m
Ajax's attack is €108m more valuable than Groningen's (€119m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (10)
€77m
AJA (13)
€53m
FEY (4)
€51m
AA (12)
€43m
NN (6)
€26m
UTR (10)
€24m
TWE (4)
€13m
GRO (3)
€9m
HEE (3)
€6m
FS (7)
€6m
GAE (6)
€6m
TEL (7)
€5m
PZ (6)
€5m
FV (7)
€3m
HER (6)
€3m
SR (4)
€2m
NB (4)
€2m
EXC (4)
€2m
Ajax's midfield is €44m more valuable than Groningen's (€53m vs €9m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (21)
€108m
FEY (15)
€87m
AJA (25)
€87m
AA (26)
€62m
TWE (13)
€45m
UTR (22)
€34m
HEE (10)
€20m
SR (13)
€16m
GAE (13)
€14m
GRO (12)
€11m
PZ (11)
€9m
NN (9)
€9m
EXC (12)
€9m
FS (14)
€8m
FV (13)
€7m
NB (12)
€5m
HER (14)
€4m
TEL (9)
€3m
Ajax's defence is €76m more valuable than Groningen's (€87m vs €11m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
Telstar
PEC Zwolle
FC Volendam
NAC Breda
Heracles