Ajax’s recent 3-game winning streak has them feeling confident at home, yet PSV Eindhoven’s own 3-game run and a 6-1 demolition of Utrecht suggest the visitors are in fine form. The model’s most likely outcome is an away win, with a 46% chance for PSV, a 29% chance for Ajax and a 25% chance of a draw. The expected total is 3.3 goals, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with an 11% probability. Ajax averages 1.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded at home against similar opposition, while PSV concedes 2.5 and scores only 1.0 on the road. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.5%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (96.6%), Under 6.5 (95.1%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (94.7%), Home under 3.5 goals (94.3%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (92.7%) and Under 5.5 cards (89.1%). Each pick carries the stated probability, and the edges are noted where provided.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ajax win
29.1%
Avg Implied 35.9% · @ 2.61
Edge
-6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
2.75
Unibet
2.70
Dafabet
2.70
1xBet
2.66
Betano
2.65
Draw
24.6%
Avg Implied 24.3% · @ 3.86
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Pinnacle
4.00
1xBet
3.96
Dafabet
3.95
PSV Eindhoven win
46.3%
Avg Implied 39.8% · @ 2.35
Edge
+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.42
Betano
2.40
Pinnacle
2.39
Dafabet
2.38
Bet365
2.38
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ajax
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
2.8
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.30
2.27
1.27
1.80
1.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.17
2.17
1.50
2.00
1.00
2.25
vs Weaker (24)
2.25
1.08
2.38
1.15
2.09
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
5.1
Avg scored
3.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.87
1.53
3.31
1.56
2.36
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.60
2.00
2.00
1.67
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (25)
3.12
1.44
3.62
1.54
2.58
1.33
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.9%
@ 1.07-2.0%
Under 1.5
15.1%
@ 7.12+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Under
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
7.50
Unibet
7.50
Betano
6.70
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
63.7%
@ 1.32-7.3%
Under 2.5
36.3%
@ 3.22+7.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Unibet
1.34
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
Under
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
Pinnacle
3.28
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
41.5%
@ 1.84-9.8%
Under 3.5
58.5%
@ 1.94+9.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.88
Betano
1.87
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.86
SBO
1.84
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
1xBet
1.99
SBO
1.98
Betano
1.98
10Bet
1.95
Both teams to score
Yes
65.2%
@ 1.30-6.4%
No
34.8%
@ 3.27+6.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.31
William Hil
1.30
10Bet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Unibet
1.30
No
Betfair
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.27
William Hil
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 8.62+5.6%
1-2
9.2%@ 9.55+4.4%
2-1
7.1%@ 10.26+2.7%
2-2
6.6%@ 9.53+1.8%
0-2
6.4%@ 16.83+3.7%
0-1
5.9%@ 15.26+2.9%
1-3
5.7%@ 14.44+2.5%
0-0
4.8%@ 23.43+2.8%
Ajax goals ↓
PSV Eindhoven goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.8%
5.9%
6.4%
3.9%
1.8%
1
4.4%
11%
9.2%
5.7%
2.6%
2
3.9%
7.1%
6.6%
4.1%
1.9%
3
1.8%
3.4%
3.2%
1.9%
0.9%
4
0.7%
1.2%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajax goals (down), columns = PSV Eindhoven goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.47
Feyenoord
1.91
NEC Nijmegen
1.74
Twente
1.71
Ajax
1.67
Utrecht
1.58
AZ Alkmaar
1.53
Heerenveen
1.42
Groningen
1.37
Sparta Rotterdam
1.26
Fortuna Sittard
1.15
Willem II
1.14
Excelsior
1.12
GO Ahead Eagles
1.12
Telstar
1.09
PEC Zwolle
1.09
ADO Den Haag
1.08
Cambuur
1.03
Ajax is 0.80 points worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 2.47).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
PSV Eindhoven
2.97
NEC Nijmegen
2.26
Feyenoord
2.06
Ajax
1.78
Twente
1.74
AZ Alkmaar
1.71
Heerenveen
1.64
Utrecht
1.61
GO Ahead Eagles
1.59
Telstar
1.44
Fortuna Sittard
1.44
Groningen
1.40
Willem II
1.32
PEC Zwolle
1.29
Excelsior
1.26
ADO Den Haag
1.25
Cambuur
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam
1.18
Ajax is 1.19 goals worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of goals scored per game (1.78 vs 2.97).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajax
1.14
Twente
1.18
Utrecht
1.22
Feyenoord
1.29
PSV Eindhoven
1.32
Groningen
1.34
AZ Alkmaar
1.50
NEC Nijmegen
1.56
GO Ahead Eagles
1.56
Heerenveen
1.61
Telstar
1.62
Excelsior
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam
1.82
Fortuna Sittard
1.85
Willem II
1.90
ADO Den Haag
2.01
PEC Zwolle
2.09
Cambuur
2.10
Ajax is 0.18 goals better than PSV Eindhoven in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 1.32).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
PSV Eindhoven
61%
NEC Nijmegen
57%
Ajax
56%
Twente
54%
AZ Alkmaar
53%
Feyenoord
53%
Heerenveen
51%
Groningen
50%
GO Ahead Eagles
49%
Excelsior
48%
Sparta Rotterdam
47%
Utrecht
47%
Telstar
45%
PEC Zwolle
45%
Fortuna Sittard
45%
Ajax is 4.5 percentage points worse than PSV Eindhoven in terms of average possession (56% vs 61%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ajax
For 7.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 11.3 · Total 21.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
PSV Eindhoven
For 7.4 · Against 3.7 · Total 11.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.6 · Against 8.1 · Total 16.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajax
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.1
10.4
3.5
3.2
3.7
21.8
23.5
20.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (14)
9.5
10.0
9.0
3.9
3.3
4.4
25.1
25.4
24.7
vs Weaker (36)
9.8
8.7
10.9
3.3
3.2
3.4
20.5
22.8
18.2
% over line
50%
40%
60%
44%
36%
52%
54%
68%
40%
% under line
50%
60%
40%
56%
64%
48%
46%
32%
60%
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.3
11.5
11.1
3.1
3.3
3.0
18.3
17.8
18.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
11.1
12.7
9.5
4.0
5.5
2.5
20.0
21.8
18.2
vs Weaker (38)
11.3
11.1
11.6
2.9
2.6
3.2
17.8
16.6
19.1
% over line
74%
76%
72%
30%
32%
28%
20%
16%
24%
% under line
26%
24%
28%
70%
68%
72%
80%
84%
76%
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
GO Ahead Eagles
11.3
PSV Eindhoven
11.3
Fortuna Sittard
10.8
Willem II
10.8
Sparta Rotterdam
10.7
Telstar
10.6
ADO Den Haag
10.6
AZ Alkmaar
10.4
Heerenveen
10.2
Feyenoord
10.1
Groningen
10.1
Cambuur
10.1
Twente
10.0
NEC Nijmegen
9.9
Utrecht
9.8
Ajax
9.7
Excelsior
9.4
PEC Zwolle
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Cambuur
3.9
NEC Nijmegen
3.9
Twente
3.8
Sparta Rotterdam
3.8
Feyenoord
3.7
Utrecht
3.7
AZ Alkmaar
3.7
Ajax
3.6
ADO Den Haag
3.6
Groningen
3.6
PSV Eindhoven
3.5
Fortuna Sittard
3.4
PEC Zwolle
3.4
Telstar
3.3
GO Ahead Eagles
3.3
Willem II
3.1
Excelsior
3.1
Heerenveen
3.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
ADO Den Haag
26.5
Cambuur
26.4
NEC Nijmegen
23.9
Fortuna Sittard
23.4
Utrecht
23.2
Feyenoord
22.8
AZ Alkmaar
22.6
PEC Zwolle
22.5
Telstar
22.5
Willem II
22.3
Ajax
21.8
Excelsior
21.7
Groningen
20.7
Twente
20.6
Sparta Rotterdam
20.6
Heerenveen
20.0
GO Ahead Eagles
18.9
PSV Eindhoven
18.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
59.7%
@ 1.64+3.2%
Under 9.5
40.3%
@ 2.12-3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Unibet
1.66
Under
Betfair
2.38
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.07
1xBet
2.05
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
40.5%
@ 1.90-8.6%
Under 3.5
59.5%
@ 1.83+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.90
Under
Betano
1.83
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
39.7%
Under 21.5
60.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ajax or Draw
53.7%
Avg Implied 60.1% · @ 1.56
Edge
-6.5%
29%
25%
46%
covers Ajax + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.58
1xBet
1.58
Betfair
1.57
10Bet
1.55
Ajax or PSV Eindhoven
75.4%
Avg Implied 75.8% · @ 1.23
Edge
-0.4%
29%
25%
46%
covers Ajax + PSV Eindhoven
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Draw or PSV Eindhoven
70.9%
Avg Implied 64.1% · @ 1.46
Edge
+6.9%
29%
25%
46%
covers Draw + PSV Eindhoven
Best 5 market prices
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ajax over/under 0.5
Over
76.2%
@ 1.13-5.8%
Under
23.8%
@ 5.15+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
BetVictor
5.25
10Bet
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Ajax over/under 1.5
Over
42.0%
@ 1.71-12.5%
Under
58.0%
@ 2.05+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.73
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Under
Pinnacle
2.15
Betfair
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
BetVictor
2.05
Ajax over/under 2.5
Over
17.5%
@ 3.24-11.2%
Under
82.5%
@ 1.30+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.40
Unibet
3.40
BetVictor
3.30
10Bet
3.20
Betfair
3.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
Ajax over/under 3.5
Over
5.8%
@ 6.77-7.9%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.07+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Unibet
7.00
Betfair
6.50
1xBet
6.50
Marathonbet
6.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5
Over
84.2%
@ 1.11+0.7%
Under
15.8%
@ 5.63-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
Under
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.50
BetVictor
5.50
Unibet
5.50
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5
Over
55.1%
@ 1.64-1.9%
Under
44.9%
@ 2.17+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
1xBet
1.65
Betano
1.65
Marathonbet
1.65
10Bet
1.65
Under
Pinnacle
2.21
Betfair
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Marathonbet
2.19
1xBet
2.19
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5
Over
28.2%
@ 2.99-2.8%
Under
71.8%
@ 1.34+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.05
10Bet
3.00
Bet365
3.00
BetVictor
3.00
Unibet
3.00
Under
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
PSV Eindhoven over/under 3.5
Over
11.6%
@ 6.03-3.7%
Under
88.4%
@ 1.09+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.00
Betfair
6.00
1xBet
5.90
Marathonbet
5.90
Under
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ajax, so a minus line means Ajax give that many goals of a start and PSV Eindhoven receive them. At -1, Ajax must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ajax win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ajax)
Ajax -2
4.9%
@ 9.42-4.6%
Draw -2
8.6%
@ 7.22-3.8%
PSV Eindhoven +2
86.4%
@ 1.15+8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
11.00
Betfair
10.00
10Bet
9.00
Unibet
9.00
Marathonbet
8.10
Draw
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Away
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
Handicap -1 (Ajax)
Ajax -1
13.6%
@ 4.57-6.0%
Draw -1
15.5%
@ 4.75-3.4%
PSV Eindhoven +1
70.9%
@ 1.46+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
5.00
Unibet
4.70
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
4.65
Unibet
4.60
Betfair
4.50
10Bet
4.50
Away
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
Handicap +1 (Ajax)
Ajax +1
53.7%
@ 1.55-3.9%
Draw +1
20.2%
@ 4.46+0.2%
PSV Eindhoven -1
26.1%
@ 3.99+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.57
Unibet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.55
10Bet
1.55
Betfair
1.53
Draw
Bet365
4.75
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
4.25
Away
10Bet
4.20
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.84
Handicap +2 (Ajax)
Ajax +2
73.9%
@ 1.19-1.1%
Draw +2
14.3%
@ 6.50+0.5%
PSV Eindhoven -2
11.8%
@ 7.92+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Draw
Betfair
7.00
Marathonbet
6.50
Bet365
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.25
Away
Betfair
9.00
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
8.00
Unibet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.10
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajax
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.43
1.40
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.67
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.75
vs Weaker (24)
1.33
0.38
1.54
0.46
1.09
0.27
Clean sheet %
67% (+43pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.83
1.56
0.88
1.21
0.79
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
1.00
0.80
1.33
0.33
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (25)
1.48
0.84
1.62
1.00
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
33% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.0%
@ 1.18-4.6%
Under 0.5
26.0%
@ 4.33+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Under
Betfair
4.80
Bet365
4.50
William Hil
4.50
Marathonbet
4.20
1xBet
4.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.5%
@ 1.90-10.7%
Under 1.5
61.5%
@ 1.84+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.00
Unibet
1.96
SBO
1.94
William Hil
1.91
Pinnacle
1.90
Under
SBO
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 3.79-9.9%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.23+9.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.00
Unibet
4.00
Betano
3.90
William Hil
3.80
Bet365
3.75
Under
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajax over/under 0.5 HT
Over
47.8%
@ 1.70-7.0%
Under
52.2%
@ 2.06+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Unibet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.69
1xBet
1.67
Under
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.12
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.05
Unibet
2.00
Ajax over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.4%
@ 4.35-6.9%
Under
85.6%
@ 1.17+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.33
1xBet
4.33
Betano
4.30
10Bet
4.20
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
Ajax over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.1%
@ 9.75-6.5%
Under
96.9%
@ 1.03+6.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.75
Under
Betano
1.03
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 HT
Over
61.5%
@ 1.64+4.8%
Under
38.5%
@ 2.15-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.67
Unibet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.62
1xBet
1.62
10Bet
1.62
Under
Pinnacle
2.24
10Bet
2.20
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.10
Unibet
2.08
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 HT
Over
12.9%
@ 4.11-9.5%
Under
87.1%
@ 1.19+9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
4.25
Betano
4.20
1xBet
4.05
Marathonbet
4.05
10Bet
4.00
Under
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.0%
@ 9.50-5.9%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.04+5.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
9.50
Under
Betano
1.04
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajax
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.87
0.87
0.80
1.00
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (24)
0.92
0.71
0.85
0.69
1.00
0.73
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (PSV Eindhoven) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
PSV Eindhoven
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.70
1.75
0.69
1.14
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
0.60
1.20
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (25)
1.64
0.60
2.00
0.54
1.25
0.67
Clean sheet %
47% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajax) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
81.5%
@ 1.09-4.4%
Under 0.5
18.5%
@ 6.66+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
Under
1xBet
7.30
Bet365
7.00
William Hil
6.50
Betano
6.30
10Bet
6.20
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.5%
@ 1.50-9.4%
Under 1.5
47.5%
@ 2.44+9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Marathonbet
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Bet365
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Under
Betano
2.50
Bet365
2.50
William Hil
2.45
10Bet
2.45
Unibet
2.43
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
22.5%
@ 2.54-14.0%
Under 2.5
77.5%
@ 1.46+14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.62
Unibet
2.60
1xBet
2.56
Marathonbet
2.56
William Hil
2.50
Under
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajax over/under 0.5 2H
Over
55.8%
@ 1.47-7.6%
Under
44.2%
@ 2.54+7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.50
Ajax over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.2%
@ 3.10-10.7%
Under
80.8%
@ 1.32+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.14
10Bet
3.10
1xBet
3.10
Betano
3.05
Under
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Ajax over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.1%
@ 7.75-7.9%
Under
95.9%
@ 1.05+7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.50
Betano
7.00
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
PSV Eindhoven over/under 0.5 2H
Over
64.0%
@ 1.43-1.3%
Under
36.0%
@ 2.67+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Under
Betano
2.75
1xBet
2.60
PSV Eindhoven over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.7%
@ 2.97-8.4%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.34+8.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
10Bet
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Betano
2.90
Under
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
PSV Eindhoven over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.8%
@ 7.30-6.9%
Under
94.2%
@ 1.06+6.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.90
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Betfair
1.01
-
+3.8%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
96.9%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.5%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.04
Betano
1.04
-
-
-
-
+5.9%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.03
-
-
-
+7.9%
Under 6.5
95.0%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.06
Unibet
1.04
+5.2%
Home under 3.5 goals
94.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
+7.9%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.2%
1.06
Betano
1.09
1xBet
1.04
-
-
-
+6.9%
Under 5.5 cards
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
88.5%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Pinnacle
1.18
10Bet
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Betfair
1.17
+8.0%
Away under 3.5 goals
88.4%
1.09
Bet365
1.11
Betano
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Unibet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
+3.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
87.1%
1.19
Betano
1.20
10Bet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Unibet
1.18
+9.5%
Under 25.5 fouls
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
86.4%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Marathonbet
1.14
+8.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
85.6%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.17
1xBet
1.17
Unibet
1.16
+6.9%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.4%
1.23
10Bet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
+9.9%
Over 1.5
84.9%
1.07
Betano
1.11
10Bet
1.10
Unibet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
-2.0%
Away over 0.5 goals
84.2%
1.11
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
10Bet
1.11
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.11
+0.7%
Home under 2.5 goals
82.5%
1.30
Pinnacle
1.34
Betano
1.33
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Betfair
1.30
+11.2%
Over 0.5 2H goals
81.5%
1.09
Betano
1.11
William Hil
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.09
1xBet
1.06
-4.4%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.8%
1.32
Betano
1.35
10Bet
1.33
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-
+10.7%
Under 2.5 2H goals
77.5%
1.46
Betano
1.52
10Bet
1.48
1xBet
1.45
Unibet
1.45
Marathonbet
1.45
+14.0%
Under 4.5 cards
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.3%
1.34
Betano
1.38
1xBet
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.33
-
+8.4%
Under 4.5
76.6%
1.40
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
10Bet
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Betfair
1.40
+9.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
76.2%
1.13
Betano
1.16
Bet365
1.14
Betfair
1.13
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
-5.8%
Under 23.5 fouls
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.4%
1.23
1xBet
1.26
Unibet
1.25
Betano
1.25
William Hil
1.25
Bet365
1.25
-0.4%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.0%
1.18
Betano
1.23
Unibet
1.19
Bet365
1.18
William Hil
1.18
10Bet
1.18
-4.6%
Home +2 handicap
73.9%
1.19
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.20
Unibet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
-1.1%
Away under 2.5 goals
71.8%
1.34
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.36
Bet365
1.36
1xBet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.35
+2.8%
Over 8.5 corners
71.5%
1.36
Unibet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Betfair
1.25
+3.5%
Draw or Away
70.9%
1.46
10Bet
1.50
Betano
1.50
Betfair
1.50
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.47
+6.9%
Away +1 handicap
70.9%
1.46
10Bet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.47
Bet365
1.44
Betfair
1.44
Unibet
1.43
+9.4%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ajax
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Davy Klaassen57%
Tolu Arokodare50%
Julian Brandt43%
Mika Godts33%
Kasper Dolberg25%
Owen Wijndal25%
Marcos Leonardo25%
Anton Gaaei25%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Baas17%
Steven Berghuis14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Caio Henrique0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Youri Regeer0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucas Rosa40%
Youri Regeer29%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Aaron Bouwman25%
Davy Klaassen14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Marcos Leonardo12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Steven Berghuis0%
Maarten Paes0%
Tolu Arokodare0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Baas0%
Oscar Gloukh0%
Mika Godts0%
Dies Janse0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mika Godts67%
Steven Berghuis43%
Tolu Arokodare33%
Caio Henrique29%
Lucas Rosa20%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen17%
Youri Regeer14%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Abdellah Ouazane14%
Jorthy Mokio12%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Kasper Dolberg0%
Julian Brandt0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Marcos Leonardo0%
Youri Baas0%
Anton Gaaei0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mika Godts67%
Kasper Dolberg50%
Steven Berghuis43%
Marcos Leonardo38%
Anton Gaaei25%
Jorthy Mokio25%
Tolu Arokodare17%
Oscar Gloukh14%
Marc-André Ter Stegen0%
Daley Blind0%
Julian Brandt0%
Caio Henrique0%
Davy Klaassen0%
Owen Wijndal0%
Maarten Paes0%
Lucas Rosa0%
Oliver Valaker Edvardsen0%
Youri Regeer0%
Youri Baas0%
Dies Janse0%
Aaron Bouwman0%
Abdellah Ouazane0%
PSV Eindhoven
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sergiño Dest67%
Ricardo Pepi50%
Ruben van Bommel50%
Sven Mijnans33%
Noah Fernandez33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Guus Til25%
Ryan Flamingo25%
Armando Obispo0%
Dennis Man0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Kodai Sano0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Dennis Man33%
Armando Obispo25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Ivan Perišić0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Sergiño Dest0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergiño Dest67%
Ivan Perišić25%
Mauro Júnior25%
Paul Wanner25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Amir Bouhamdi25%
Armando Obispo0%
Guus Til0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Dennis Man0%
Ricardo Pepi0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Kodai Sano0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ricardo Pepi75%
Guus Til50%
Sergiño Dest33%
Dennis Man33%
Kodai Sano33%
Ivan Perišić25%
Ruben van Bommel25%
Armando Obispo0%
Mauro Júnior0%
Sven Mijnans0%
Matěj Kovář0%
Paul Wanner0%
Ryan Flamingo0%
Noah Fernandez0%
Amir Bouhamdi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (29)
€280m
FEY (30)
€229m
AJA (26)
€173m
AA (32)
€136m
TWE (32)
€87m
UTR (26)
€61m
NN (29)
€54m
HEE (21)
€50m
GRO (24)
€32m
SR (23)
€28m
GAE (25)
€22m
PZ (23)
€21m
FS (20)
€17m
EXC (24)
€16m
ADH (23)
€13m
WI (24)
€13m
CAM (24)
€12m
TEL (21)
€8m
Ajax's squad is €107m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€173m vs €280m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (11)
€106m
AJA (11)
€95m
FEY (11)
€93m
AA (13)
€61m
TWE (12)
€34m
UTR (10)
€33m
HEE (9)
€24m
NN (11)
€22m
SR (10)
€14m
GRO (7)
€12m
GAE (9)
€9m
PZ (8)
€8m
EXC (9)
€7m
ADH (11)
€7m
FS (6)
€6m
WI (8)
€4m
CAM (10)
€3m
TEL (7)
€3m
Ajax's attack is €11m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€95m vs €106m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (5)
€60m
FEY (4)
€43m
AA (4)
€21m
AJA (3)
€15m
UTR (6)
€14m
TWE (5)
€13m
HEE (2)
€6m
GRO (5)
€6m
NN (5)
€5m
GAE (4)
€4m
PZ (5)
€4m
WI (4)
€4m
FS (4)
€4m
EXC (4)
€3m
TEL (4)
€2m
SR (2)
€2m
ADH (3)
€1m
CAM (4)
€1m
Ajax's midfield is €44m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€15m vs €60m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PE (13)
€115m
FEY (15)
€93m
AJA (12)
€63m
AA (15)
€54m
TWE (15)
€39m
NN (13)
€26m
HEE (10)
€20m
UTR (10)
€15m
GRO (12)
€14m
SR (11)
€12m
PZ (10)
€10m
GAE (12)
€8m
CAM (10)
€8m
FS (10)
€7m
EXC (11)
€6m
WI (12)
€5m
ADH (9)
€5m
TEL (10)
€3m
Ajax's defence is €52m less valuable than PSV Eindhoven's (€63m vs €115m).
Netherlands: Eredivisie 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Netherlands: Eredivisie stats & trends →
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AZ Alkmaar
Feyenoord
GO Ahead Eagles
Fortuna Sittard
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Excelsior
Groningen
Heerenveen
Sparta Rotterdam
PEC Zwolle
Telstar
Willem II
ADO Den Haag
Utrecht
Cambuur