PythiaFootballBETA
Ajax is poised to win at home against Utrecht, with a 57% chance of securing a home win. The match is expected to be a high-scoring encounter, with an average of 3.1 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, which has a 10.9% probability.
Ajax's recent form is unbeaten in their last 5 matches, and they have a strong home record, scoring an average of 1.91 goals and conceding just 1 goal per match. Utrecht, on the other hand, has struggled away from home, scoring 2.33 goals but conceding 3 goals per match against stronger opponents.
The model predicts a home win, and suggests selecting Over 1.5 goals, with an 82.5% chance of hitting. The model also suggests selecting Both Teams to Score, with an 81.5% chance of hitting, although this is not explicitly stated in the JSON. Ajax has a 57% chance of winning, a 23% chance of drawing, and a 20% chance of losing. Utrecht has a 20% chance of winning, a 23% chance of drawing, and a 57% chance of losing.
The draw between Ajax and Utrecht has extended Ajax's unbeaten run to six matches. In a major upset, the pre-match favourite Ajax failed to secure a win, despite being the model's selection with a 57% probability of winning. The model's call was wrong as the actual result was a draw. The model's selection, Ajax, had a 20% chance of losing. The model's selection hit the suggestion of over 1.5 goals with an 82.5% probability, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a 23% probability. The most likely scores were 1-1, 2-1, and 2-0.
Ajax| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.70 | 1.23 | 1.62 | 1.25 | 1.79 | 1.21 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (24) | 1.88 | 1.12 | 1.91 | 1.00 | 1.85 | 1.23 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+6pp vs league) | |||||
Utrecht| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.47 | 1.33 | 1.44 | 0.94 | 1.50 | 1.79 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.62 | 1.75 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (5) | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (17) | 1.53 | 1.12 | 1.88 | 0.62 | 1.22 | 1.56 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Utrecht goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 1 | 8.0% | 11% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 2 | 8.9% | 9.9% | 5.5% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 5.9% | 6.6% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 3.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
AjaxUtrechtAjax| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.9 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.9 | 22.4 | 24.2 | 20.5 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (9) | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 25.0 | 24.3 | 26.3 |
| vs Weaker (41) | 9.9 | 9.3 | 10.4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 21.9 | 24.1 | 19.7 |
| % over line | 52% | 42% | 62% | 46% | 38% | 54% | 58% | 77% | 38% |
| % under line | 48% | 58% | 38% | 54% | 62% | 46% | 42% | 23% | 62% |
Utrecht| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 22.3 | 23.3 | 21.3 |
| vs Stronger (11) | 11.0 | 10.0 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 22.4 | 26.3 | 17.6 |
| vs Similar (11) | 9.0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 21.9 | 22.0 | 21.8 |
| vs Weaker (28) | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 22.4 | 22.3 | 22.5 |
| % over line | 52% | 52% | 52% | 50% | 44% | 56% | 52% | 65% | 39% |
| % under line | 48% | 48% | 48% | 50% | 56% | 44% | 48% | 35% | 61% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 20/04/25 | A | 4-0 | |
| 04/12/24 | H | 2-2 | |
| 03/03/24 | H | 2-0 | |
| 22/10/23 | A | 4-3 | |
| 21/05/23 | H | 3-1 | |
| 28/08/22 | A | 0-2 |
Ajax| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 25/04/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 22/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 3-1 |
Utrecht| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 10/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 02/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 34 | 84 | 79% | 2.5 | 101 | 45 | +56 | 4.3 | 97% | 85% | 59% | 11.6 | 79% | 3.4 | 29% | 18.6 | 21% | 323 | 139 | 77 | 108 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 2 |  Feyenoord | 34 | 65 | 56% | 1.9 | 70 | 44 | +26 | 3.4 | 85% | 59% | 38% | 10.6 | 56% | 3.6 | 45% | 21.6 | 50% | 216 | 78 | 51 | 87 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 53% |
| 3 | Ajax | 36 | 60 | 42% | 1.7 | 65 | 42 | +23 | 3.0 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.0 | 53% | 3.7 | 44% | 22.4 | 58% | 260 | 119 | 53 | 87 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 56% |
| 4 |  NEC Nijmegen | 34 | 59 | 47% | 1.7 | 77 | 53 | +24 | 3.8 | 97% | 74% | 56% | 10.1 | 53% | 4.1 | 47% | 24.1 | 65% | 62 | 27 | 26 | 9 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 57% |
| 5 |  Twente | 34 | 58 | 44% | 1.7 | 59 | 40 | +19 | 2.9 | 85% | 50% | 32% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.6 | 38% | 20.6 | 41% | 84 | 26 | 13 | 45 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 | Utrecht | 36 | 57 | 44% | 1.6 | 59 | 45 | +14 | 2.9 | 83% | 50% | 33% | 9.9 | 58% | 3.4 | 46% | 21.9 | 47% | 88 | 30 | 24 | 34 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 47% |
| 7 |  AZ Alkmaar | 34 | 52 | 41% | 1.5 | 58 | 51 | +7 | 3.2 | 82% | 65% | 44% | 10.3 | 56% | 3.6 | 39% | 21.6 | 50% | 205 | 100 | 43 | 62 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 53% |
| 8 |  Heerenveen | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 59 | 58 | +1 | 3.2 | 94% | 69% | 39% | 10.6 | 61% | 3.1 | 37% | 20.4 | 42% | 49 | 22 | 6 | 20 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 51% |
| 9 |  Groningen | 35 | 48 | 40% | 1.4 | 49 | 47 | +2 | 2.7 | 89% | 54% | 23% | 11.0 | 60% | 3.5 | 45% | 20.8 | 51% | 32 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 10 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 34 | 43 | 35% | 1.3 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 3.0 | 76% | 53% | 38% | 11.2 | 68% | 4.1 | 68% | 20.7 | 44% | 32 | 13 | 2 | 16 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 11 |  Fortuna Sittard | 34 | 39 | 32% | 1.1 | 49 | 63 | -14 | 3.3 | 88% | 68% | 38% | 11.1 | 59% | 3.6 | 42% | 23.9 | 65% | 22 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 45% |
| 12 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 34 | 38 | 24% | 1.1 | 54 | 53 | +1 | 3.1 | 85% | 62% | 47% | 11.6 | 71% | 3.5 | 39% | 19.1 | 24% | 36 | 17 | 6 | 14 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 34 | 38 | 29% | 1.1 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 2.9 | 82% | 62% | 29% | 9.3 | 44% | 3.3 | 40% | 21.0 | 41% | 19 | 9 | 2 | 9 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Telstar | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 49 | 55 | -6 | 3.1 | 88% | 59% | 38% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.5 | 41% | 21.6 | 47% | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 15 |  PEC Zwolle | 34 | 37 | 26% | 1.1 | 44 | 71 | -27 | 3.4 | 85% | 62% | 44% | 9.7 | 50% | 3.5 | 47% | 23.3 | 68% | 23 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 45% |
| 16 |  FC Volendam | 34 | 32 | 24% | 0.9 | 35 | 55 | -20 | 2.6 | 85% | 59% | 18% | 10.3 | 62% | 3.8 | 50% | 21.8 | 50% | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 45% |
| 17 |  NAC Breda | 35 | 32 | 20% | 0.9 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 2.7 | 71% | 49% | 26% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.8 | 50% | 23.7 | 69% | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 49% |
| 18 |  Heracles | 34 | 19 | 15% | 0.6 | 35 | 85 | -50 | 3.5 | 91% | 71% | 38% | 10.5 | 50% | 3.9 | 53% | 24.8 | 74% | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 45% |