This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.97
0.90
3.47
0.87
2.47
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
3.11
0.89
3.71
0.86
2.50
0.93
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.6%
Under 1.5
32.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.0%
Under 2.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
19.7%
Under 3.5
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
39.9%
No
60.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
15.4%
0-2
13.4%
1-1
12.0%
0-0
11.3%
1-2
8.9%
0-3
7.3%
1-0
5.6%
1-3
4.8%
Alaves goals ↓
Real Madrid goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
15%
13%
7.3%
2.9%
1
5.6%
12%
8.9%
4.8%
1.9%
2
2.2%
3.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.6%
3
0.5%
0.8%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alaves goals (down), columns = Real Madrid goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Real Madrid
2.45
Barcelona
2.37
Atletico Madrid
2.05
Sevilla
1.89
Villarreal
1.76
Real Sociedad
1.68
Athletic Club
1.66
Espanyol
1.47
Alaves
1.45
Eibar
1.42
Malaga
1.21
Valencia
1.21
Celta Vigo
1.18
Las Palmas
1.03
Real Betis
1.03
Deportivo La Coruna
0.95
Leganes
0.92
Sporting Gijon
0.82
Osasuna
0.58
Granada CF
0.53
Alaves is 1.00 points worse than Real Madrid in terms of average points per game (1.45 vs 2.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barcelona
3.05
Real Madrid
2.79
Atletico Madrid
1.84
Sevilla
1.82
Real Sociedad
1.55
Eibar
1.47
Villarreal
1.47
Valencia
1.47
Celta Vigo
1.39
Las Palmas
1.39
Athletic Club
1.39
Malaga
1.29
Espanyol
1.29
Deportivo La Coruna
1.13
Sporting Gijon
1.11
Alaves
1.08
Real Betis
1.08
Osasuna
1.05
Leganes
0.95
Granada CF
0.79
Alaves is 1.71 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals scored per game (1.08 vs 2.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Atletico Madrid
0.71
Villarreal
0.87
Barcelona
0.97
Real Madrid
1.08
Alaves
1.13
Athletic Club
1.13
Sevilla
1.29
Espanyol
1.32
Eibar
1.34
Real Sociedad
1.39
Malaga
1.45
Leganes
1.45
Deportivo La Coruna
1.61
Real Betis
1.68
Valencia
1.71
Celta Vigo
1.82
Sporting Gijon
1.89
Las Palmas
1.95
Granada CF
2.16
Osasuna
2.47
Alaves is 0.05 goals worse than Real Madrid in terms of goals conceded per game (1.13 vs 1.08).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alaves
For 3.2 · Against 8.6 · Total 11.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.6 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Real Madrid
For 7.3 · Against 3.5 · Total 10.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.4 · Against 13.4 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alaves
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
11.8
10.8
12.6
1.0
0.9
1.1
26.8
27.0
26.6
vs Stronger (3)
13.7
-
13.7
4.7
-
4.7
27.7
-
27.7
vs Similar (26)
10.8
10.8
11.0
1.4
1.6
1.1
26.3
27.0
25.0
vs Weaker (21)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
78%
75%
80%
14%
12%
16%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
22%
25%
20%
86%
88%
84%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
11.0
11.8
10.1
5.1
4.8
5.5
24.5
22.6
26.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
8.5
10.5
6.5
7.2
6.5
8.0
28.5
25.5
31.5
vs Weaker (43)
11.2
12.0
10.5
4.9
4.6
5.2
24.2
22.3
26.1
% over line
68%
67%
70%
81%
75%
87%
68%
50%
87%
% under line
32%
33%
30%
19%
25%
13%
32%
50%
13%
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Alaves
11.8
Sevilla
11.4
Real Madrid
11.0
Valencia
11.0
Deportivo La Coruna
10.6
Malaga
10.3
Real Sociedad
10.2
Villarreal
10.1
Real Betis
10.0
Athletic Club
9.9
Granada CF
9.8
Celta Vigo
9.7
Espanyol
9.6
Eibar
9.6
Atletico Madrid
9.6
Osasuna
9.6
Barcelona
9.3
Las Palmas
8.9
Sporting Gijon
8.8
Leganes
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Real Betis
6.2
Granada CF
6.1
Malaga
6.1
Espanyol
6.0
Real Sociedad
6.0
Sevilla
5.8
Celta Vigo
5.7
Athletic Club
5.6
Alaves
5.6
Valencia
5.5
Eibar
5.4
Las Palmas
5.3
Real Madrid
5.1
Barcelona
5.1
Villarreal
5.1
Sporting Gijon
5.1
Leganes
4.8
Atletico Madrid
4.7
Deportivo La Coruna
4.4
Osasuna
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Valencia
31.2
Leganes
31.0
Espanyol
30.2
Real Betis
29.4
Osasuna
28.4
Granada CF
28.4
Sevilla
28.3
Real Sociedad
28.2
Malaga
28.0
Celta Vigo
27.6
Las Palmas
27.5
Athletic Club
27.0
Alaves
26.8
Eibar
26.6
Sporting Gijon
26.5
Villarreal
26.0
Barcelona
25.9
Atletico Madrid
25.3
Real Madrid
24.5
Deportivo La Coruna
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
53.6%
Under 9.5
46.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
80.0%
Under 3.5
20.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
85.1%
Under 21.5
14.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alaves
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.33
0.50
0.14
0.31
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
-
-
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (16)
0.19
0.50
0.12
0.12
0.25
0.88
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.09
1.00
0.17
0.40
0.00
Clean sheet %
73% (+45pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
0.33
1.87
0.27
1.27
0.40
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.68
0.36
2.00
0.29
1.36
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alaves
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.53
0.57
0.29
0.62
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
-
-
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.44
0.75
0.38
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.45
0.33
0.17
1.20
0.80
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Real Madrid) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Real Madrid
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.57
1.60
0.60
1.20
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.43
0.54
1.71
0.57
1.14
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Alaves) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alaves over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alaves over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Real Madrid over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
91.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
73.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alaves · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mariano Díaz67%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Denis Suárez0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mariano Díaz67%
Abderrahman Rebbach67%
Denis Suárez33%
Nahuel Tenaglia33%
Antonio Sivera33%
Antonio Blanco33%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mariano Díaz33%
Ángel Pérez33%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Toni Martínez0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Antonio Blanco0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Toni Martínez67%
Antonio Blanco33%
Mariano Díaz0%
Denis Suárez0%
Nahuel Tenaglia0%
Jonny Otto0%
Antonio Sivera0%
Ville Koski0%
Pablo Ibáñez0%
Abderrahman Rebbach0%
Ángel Pérez0%
Youssef Enriquez0%
Real Madrid · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Kylian Mbappé67%
Jude Bellingham67%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Arda Güler33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Dean Huijsen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vinícius Júnior33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Jude Bellingham0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Vinícius Júnior67%
Federico Valverde33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Arda Güler33%
Kylian Mbappé0%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Kylian Mbappé100%
Vinícius Júnior33%
Jude Bellingham33%
Bernardo Silva0%
Thibaut Courtois0%
Federico Valverde0%
Arda Güler0%
Dean Huijsen0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (27)
€1456m
BAR (30)
€1282m
AM (25)
€653m
VIL (24)
€325m
RS (24)
€247m
AC (29)
€241m
RB (25)
€235m
CV (24)
€163m
SEV (25)
€134m
VAL (27)
€125m
ESP (24)
€119m
DLC (29)
€84m
OSA (22)
€71m
ALA (25)
€68m
MAL (27)
€41m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
GC (18)
€17m
EIB (24)
€15m
Alaves's squad is €1388m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€68m vs €1456m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (10)
€842m
BAR (10)
€590m
AM (9)
€290m
RB (10)
€131m
VIL (8)
€124m
RS (10)
€110m
AC (10)
€106m
CV (9)
€57m
DLC (9)
€49m
SEV (8)
€45m
VAL (10)
€40m
ESP (9)
€39m
MAL (11)
€26m
OSA (8)
€25m
ALA (8)
€24m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
Alaves's attack is €818m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€24m vs €842m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (8)
€324m
RM (5)
€238m
AM (6)
€155m
RS (5)
€58m
AC (7)
€57m
VIL (4)
€52m
VAL (5)
€46m
CV (3)
€35m
RB (5)
€33m
ESP (5)
€31m
SEV (5)
€23m
ALA (8)
€22m
DLC (7)
€13m
OSA (4)
€12m
LEG (5)
€8m
MAL (5)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
Alaves's midfield is €215m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€22m vs €238m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RM (12)
€377m
BAR (12)
€368m
AM (10)
€208m
VIL (12)
€148m
RS (9)
€79m
AC (12)
€77m
CV (12)
€71m
RB (10)
€70m
SEV (12)
€65m
ESP (10)
€48m
VAL (12)
€39m
OSA (10)
€33m
DLC (13)
€22m
ALA (9)
€22m
LP (10)
€13m
MAL (11)
€9m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
EIB (10)
€5m
Alaves's defence is €355m less valuable than Real Madrid's (€22m vs €377m).
Spain: La Liga 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: La Liga stats & trends →
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Barcelona
Atletico Madrid
Sevilla
Villarreal
Real Sociedad
Athletic Club
Espanyol
Eibar
Malaga
Valencia
Celta Vigo
Las Palmas
Real Betis
Deportivo La Coruna
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Osasuna
Granada CF