Alaves vs Villarreal Result & Analysis

Alaves’ defensive record at home is worrying, conceding an average of two goals per game against stronger opposition, while Villarreal’s away form shows a solid 0.62 goals conceded and 1.25 scored against weaker teams. The model sees a tight, low-scoring affair, with an expected total of 1.9 goals and a 28% chance of exactly two goals. The single most likely scoreline is 0-1, a 18.4% probability, and the model’s pick is an away win. Home win probability sits at 16%, draw at 32%, and away win at 52%. Suggested selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 94.8%, Over 2.5 cards at 91.0%, Over 21.5 fouls at 88.7% (miss), Under 3.5 at 88.1%, Over 3.5 cards at 79.5%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.3% (miss), Over 23.5 fouls at 78.9% (miss), and Under 2.5 at 71.3% (miss).

Alaves’ victory was the shock of the evening, extending their recent run with a win after a 1-0 triumph over Villarreal. The pre-match favourite was the model’s pick of an away win, backed by a 52% probability, but the model was wrong as the home side prevailed. The final score was 2-1, a home win that defied expectations. The model’s selections performed as follows: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 94.8%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 91.0%, Over 21.5 fouls missed at 88.7%, Under 3.5 hit at 88.1%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 79.5%, Under 11.5 corners missed at 79.3%, Over 23.5 fouls missed at 78.9%, and Under 2.5 missed at 71.3%. The match delivered a surprising home triumph and mixed results for the model’s other predictions.