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Albion Rvs vs Dumbarton Result & Analysis

Date: 31/12/2022
Time: 13:00
Final 0-1
AR
Albion Rvs
Vs
26%
28%
45%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Albion Rvs win✗ Miss
26.4%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.33
Edge
-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 27.6% · @ 3.31
Edge
+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton win✓ Hit
45.3%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.03
Edge
+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

AR
Albion Rvs

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L21W01L11D22D11D32W10W01L15LA·STR01/10H·BON08/10A·ELG11/10A·DUM15/10H·STE29/10H·STI05/11A·EAS12/11H·STR19/11A·FOR03/12A·ANN23/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.500.731.471.131.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)1.000.890.500.501.401.20
vs Weaker (21)0.901.760.821.821.001.70
Clean sheet %27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-623L00D06L11D10W20W40W22D11D20WA·STR20/09A·FOR01/10A·STI08/10H·ALB15/10A·ANN29/10H·STR05/11A·ELG12/11H·FOR19/11A·BON03/12H·EAS24/12
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.331.430.931.621.69
vs Stronger (19)1.321.370.891.111.701.60
vs Similar (11)1.911.272.400.601.501.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Albion Rvs) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.1%
Under 1.5
25.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
47.7%
@ 1.99+0.7%
Under 2.5
52.3%
@ 1.76-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.0%
Under 3.5
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
52.6%
No
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.5%
0-1 ✓
10.1%
1-2
9.2%
0-0
8.8%
0-2
8.4%
1-0
7.0%
2-1
6.7%
2-2
5.0%
Albion Rvs goals ↓
Dumbarton goals →
01234
08.8%10%8.4%4.2%1.6%
17.0%14%9.2%4.6%1.7%
24.5%6.7%5.0%2.5%0.9%
31.6%2.4%1.8%0.9%0.3%
40.4%0.7%0.5%0.2%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Albion Rvs goals (down), columns = Dumbarton goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Albion Rvs is 0.64 points worse than Dumbarton in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 1.72).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Albion Rvs is 0.06 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.36).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Albion Rvs is 0.25 goals worse than Dumbarton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.08).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

AR
Albion Rvs

For 4.6 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

16055610762336585656355610161359131111811A·ANNA·FORH·STRA·EASH·STIH·STEA·DUMA·ELGH·BONA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.7 · Total 4.7

ðŸŸĻ Cards

70332225222143243340647437664A·ANNA·FORH·STRA·EASH·STIH·STEA·DUMA·ELGH·BONA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.7 · Against 14.3 · Total 24.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

3308129115141515131141412121119715132020201930241824302233A·ANNA·FORH·STRA·EASH·STIH·STEA·DUMA·ELGH·BONA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

DumbartonDumbarton

For 4.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.3

ðŸšĐ Corners

15072476233962565110544291186157111196H·EASA·BONH·FORA·ELGH·STRA·ANNH·ALBA·STIA·FORA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

70242142312234123252655147157H·EASA·BONH·FORA·ELGH·STRA·ANNH·ALBA·STIA·FORA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 8.5 · Total 16.2

⚠ïļ Fouls

2401158748811956121212696127416151219141824151811H·EASA·BONH·FORA·ELGH·STRA·ANNH·ALBA·STIA·FORA·STR
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

AR
Albion Rvs

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.19.29.03.63.93.321.220.122.2
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (16)8.68.98.23.33.43.221.420.921.9
vs Weaker (34)9.49.49.43.74.13.321.119.722.3
% over line38%29%46%46%46%46%48%33%62%
% under line62%71%54%54%54%54%52%67%38%
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.210.89.64.24.04.420.621.519.8
vs Stronger (38)10.110.79.44.23.94.421.222.420.0
vs Similar (12)10.611.210.04.54.54.518.818.519.0
vs Weaker (0)---------
% over line58%68%48%64%56%72%41%52%29%
% under line42%32%52%36%44%28%59%48%71%
This opponent (Albion Rvs) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.2
Stenhousemuir
10.0
Forfar
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.2
Stranraer
9.1
Albion Rvs
9.1
East Fife
9.1
Stirling
8.7
Elgin
8.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.6
Elgin
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Dumbarton
4.2
Stirling
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
East Fife
3.7
Albion Rvs
3.6
Forfar
3.5

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.6
Stirling
22.2
Forfar
21.9
Stranraer
21.7
Stenhousemuir
21.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.6
Albion Rvs
21.2
East Fife
20.8
Dumbarton
20.6
Annan Athletic
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
45.5%
Under 9.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
64.2%
Under 3.5
35.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
33.5%
Under 21.5
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AR
Albion Rvs

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D21W00D11D10W10W21W00D01L10WA·STR01/10H·BON08/10A·ELG11/10A·DUM15/10H·STE29/10H·STI05/11A·EAS12/11H·STR19/11A·FOR03/12A·ANN23/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.600.400.400.600.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.560.440.500.250.600.60
vs Weaker (21)0.480.670.360.450.600.90
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D00D04L11D00D10W10W11D01L10WA·STR20/09A·FOR01/10A·STI08/10H·ALB15/10A·ANN29/10H·STR05/11A·ELG12/11H·FOR19/11A·BON03/12H·EAS24/12
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.860.710.560.94
vs Stronger (19)0.530.950.560.890.501.00
vs Similar (11)1.000.641.400.400.670.83
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Albion Rvs) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Albion Rvs over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albion Rvs over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albion Rvs over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AR
Albion Rvs

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
50-501L00D01L00D12L01L11D10W00D05LA·STR01/10H·BON08/10A·ELG11/10A·DUM15/10H·STE29/10H·STI05/11A·EAS12/11H·STR19/11A·FOR03/12A·ANN23/12
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.900.331.070.530.73
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (9)0.440.440.000.250.800.60
vs Weaker (21)0.431.100.451.360.400.80
Clean sheet %47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Dumbarton) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

DumbartonDumbarton

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-323L00D02L00D10W10W30W11D10W10WA·STR20/09A·FOR01/10A·STI08/10H·ALB15/10A·ANN29/10H·STR05/11A·ELG12/11H·FOR19/11A·BON03/12H·EAS24/12
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.500.570.211.060.75
vs Stronger (19)0.790.420.330.221.200.60
vs Similar (11)0.910.641.000.200.831.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Albion Rvs) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Albion Rvs over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albion Rvs over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Albion Rvs over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Dumbarton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls89.9%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards81.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls80.4%-------✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners77.1%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.574.1%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.574.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards71.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
AR wins
1
Draws
1
DUM wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Albion Rvs vs Dumbarton · H/A from AR
DateH/AGameScore
15/10/22ADumbarton Vs AR1-1
06/08/22HAR Vs Dumbarton1-2

AR
Albion Rvs

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/12/22AAnnan Athletic Vs AR5-1
03/12/22AForfar Vs AR1-0
19/11/22HAR Vs Stranraer1-0
12/11/22AEast Fife Vs AR2-3
05/11/22HAR Vs Stirling1-1
29/10/22HAR Vs Stenhousemuir2-2
15/10/22ADumbarton Vs AR1-1
11/10/22AElgin Vs AR1-0
08/10/22HAR Vs Bonnyrigg Rose2-1
01/10/22AStranraer Vs AR2-1

DumbartonDumbarton

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
24/12/22HDUM Vs East Fife2-0
03/12/22ABonnyrigg Rose Vs DUM1-1
19/11/22HDUM Vs Forfar2-2
12/11/22AElgin Vs DUM0-4
05/11/22HDUM Vs Stranraer2-0
29/10/22AAnnan Athletic Vs DUM0-1
15/10/22HDUM Vs Albion Rvs1-1
08/10/22AStirling Vs DUM6-0
01/10/22AForfar Vs DUM0-0
20/09/22AStranraer Vs DUM3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

AR
Albion Rvs
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLL1.04
HomeLWDDW1.04
AwayLDWLL1.04
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%25%27%
AVG goals2.582.382.77
Over 1.5 %66%62%69%
Over 2.5 %46%46%46%
Over 3.5 %30%25%35%
Scored1.020.921.12
Conceded1.561.461.65
BTTS52%46%58%
Clean Sheet24%25%23%
Corners9.129.219.04
Cards3.583.883.31
Dumbarton
Dumbarton
Scotland: League Two
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDDW1.34
HomeWDWDW1.36
AwayDLWWD1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%36%40%
AVG goals3.102.723.48
Over 1.5 %86%88%84%
Over 2.5 %60%52%68%
Over 3.5 %36%28%44%
Scored1.461.401.52
Conceded1.641.321.96
BTTS56%48%64%
Clean Sheet24%32%16%
Corners10.1810.809.56
Cards4.244.044.44

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StirlingStirling3673
58%
2.0
6737+30
2.9
83%
61%
36%
9.7
47%
4.3
58%
21.4
47%
0
0001.91.0
-
2DumbartonDumbarton3662
50%
1.7
4939+10
2.4
69%
42%
25%
9.3
47%
4.9
72%
20.5
44%
0
0001.41.1
-
3Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3651
39%
1.4
6151+10
3.1
86%
67%
44%
9.9
50%
4.3
64%
20.2
44%
0
0001.71.4
-
4East FifeEast Fife3650
39%
1.4
5450+4
2.9
78%
58%
36%
9.7
42%
4.4
64%
21.4
44%
0
0001.51.4
-
5ForfarForfar3648
36%
1.3
3743-6
2.2
67%
39%
17%
10.7
58%
3.7
56%
22.0
50%
0
0001.01.2
-
6StenhousemuirStenhousemuir3647
33%
1.3
5155-4
2.9
86%
61%
33%
11.1
72%
4.1
61%
20.8
33%
0
0001.41.5
-
7StranraerStranraer3645
33%
1.2
4357-14
2.8
72%
47%
39%
9.8
50%
3.8
50%
21.1
50%
0
0001.21.6
-
8
BR
Bonnyrigg Rose		3642
31%
1.2
3647-11
2.3
67%
39%
19%
9.5
50%
4.3
61%
22.1
58%
0
0001.01.3
-
9ElginElgin3640
31%
1.1
4462-18
2.9
81%
61%
33%
8.8
42%
4.2
64%
21.8
53%
0
0001.21.7
-
10
AR
Albion Rvs		3639
31%
1.1
4748-1
2.6
72%
47%
28%
9.9
53%
4.3
67%
22.0
47%
0
0001.31.3
-
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →

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