This opponent (Eldense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.33
1.19
1.19
0.93
1.50
vs Stronger (10)
1.10
1.70
1.60
2.00
0.60
1.40
vs Similar (20)
1.05
1.15
1.00
0.82
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
60.5%
Under 1.5
39.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.1%
@ 2.57-4.3%
Under 2.5
67.9%
@ 1.47+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.1%
Under 3.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.5%
No
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0 ✓
15.0%
1-1
14.6%
1-0
14.0%
0-1
10.5%
2-0
8.6%
2-1
7.5%
1-2
5.8%
0-2
5.1%
Alcorcon goals ↓
Eldense goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
11%
5.1%
1.5%
0.3%
1
14%
15%
5.8%
1.7%
0.4%
2
8.6%
7.5%
3.2%
0.9%
0.2%
3
3.2%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.9%
0.8%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alcorcon goals (down), columns = Eldense goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leganes
1.76
Valladolid
1.71
Espanyol
1.65
Eibar
1.64
Oviedo
1.54
Racing Santander
1.52
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Burgos
1.40
Levante
1.40
Elche
1.40
Racing Ferrol
1.40
Tenerife
1.33
FC Cartagena
1.21
Zaragoza
1.21
Albacete
1.21
Eldense
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Mirandes
1.17
Amorebieta
1.07
Alcorcon
1.05
Villarreal II
1.02
FC Andorra
1.02
Alcorcon is 0.14 points worse than Eldense in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.19).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Eibar
1.64
Racing Santander
1.50
Espanyol
1.35
Leganes
1.33
Oviedo
1.26
Burgos
1.24
Valladolid
1.21
Albacete
1.19
Levante
1.17
Racing Ferrol
1.17
Sporting Gijon
1.16
Mirandes
1.12
Eldense
1.10
Elche
1.02
Zaragoza
1.00
Villarreal II
0.98
Tenerife
0.90
Amorebieta
0.88
FC Cartagena
0.88
Huesca
0.86
FC Andorra
0.79
Alcorcon
0.76
Alcorcon is 0.33 goals worse than Eldense in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.10).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leganes
0.64
Huesca
0.79
Valladolid
0.86
Oviedo
0.89
Espanyol
0.89
Tenerife
0.98
Sporting Gijon
0.98
Zaragoza
1.00
Levante
1.07
Elche
1.10
Eibar
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.21
Racing Ferrol
1.24
Amorebieta
1.26
FC Andorra
1.26
Alcorcon
1.26
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.31
Mirandes
1.31
Eldense
1.33
Albacete
1.33
Villarreal II
1.48
Alcorcon is 0.07 goals better than Eldense in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
63%
Elche
58%
Valladolid
56%
Eibar
55%
Oviedo
54%
Sporting Gijon
54%
Levante
52%
Racing Ferrol
52%
Espanyol
51%
Zaragoza
50%
Villarreal II
50%
Tenerife
50%
Albacete
49%
Racing Santander
47%
Burgos
47%
Amorebieta
46%
Leganes
46%
Eldense
45%
Huesca
45%
Mirandes
45%
FC Cartagena
44%
Alcorcon
42%
Alcorcon is 3.0 percentage points worse than Eldense in terms of average possession (42% vs 45%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alcorcon
For 3.1 · Against 6.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.9 · Against 2.4 · Total 6.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Eldense
For 4.9 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.7 · Against 10.4 · Total 25.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alcorcon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.8
9.2
4.9
4.7
5.2
24.9
23.6
26.2
vs Stronger (27)
9.8
9.3
10.3
5.6
4.9
6.3
26.1
25.9
26.3
vs Similar (23)
8.1
8.1
8.1
4.1
4.3
4.0
23.4
20.5
26.1
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
40%
35%
46%
72%
73%
71%
74%
69%
79%
% under line
60%
65%
54%
28%
27%
29%
26%
31%
21%
This opponent (Eldense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (36)
9.6
9.3
9.9
4.1
4.1
4.2
26.2
26.9
25.4
vs Stronger (11)
11.4
9.4
13.0
4.9
4.2
5.5
27.7
29.2
26.5
vs Similar (25)
8.9
9.3
8.4
3.8
4.0
3.6
25.5
26.1
24.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
53%
61%
44%
58%
67%
50%
75%
78%
72%
% under line
47%
39%
56%
42%
33%
50%
25%
22%
28%
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Oviedo
10.1
Mirandes
10.0
Espanyol
10.0
Burgos
9.9
Sporting Gijon
9.9
Racing Santander
9.8
Huesca
9.7
Eldense
9.6
Valladolid
9.6
Levante
9.6
Elche
9.5
Eibar
9.4
Tenerife
9.4
Villarreal II
9.2
Alcorcon
9.0
Leganes
9.0
FC Cartagena
9.0
Amorebieta
8.9
Zaragoza
8.8
FC Andorra
8.8
Albacete
8.7
Racing Ferrol
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.0
Tenerife
5.7
Espanyol
5.6
Oviedo
5.4
Huesca
5.4
Elche
5.3
Sporting Gijon
5.3
Leganes
5.3
FC Cartagena
5.3
Levante
5.2
Valladolid
5.1
Mirandes
5.1
Alcorcon
4.9
Eibar
4.8
FC Andorra
4.8
Zaragoza
4.8
Albacete
4.8
Villarreal II
4.8
Burgos
4.7
Amorebieta
4.6
Racing Ferrol
4.2
Eldense
4.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
30.4
Espanyol
28.2
Leganes
27.6
Oviedo
27.4
Tenerife
27.0
Elche
26.8
Valladolid
26.8
Albacete
26.6
Huesca
26.4
Levante
26.3
Eldense
26.2
Zaragoza
25.9
FC Cartagena
25.8
Racing Ferrol
25.7
Villarreal II
25.4
FC Andorra
25.0
Alcorcon
24.9
Amorebieta
24.5
Mirandes
24.3
Eibar
23.8
Sporting Gijon
23.5
Burgos
23.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.6%
Under 9.5
53.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.1%
Under 3.5
32.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.5%
Under 21.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alcorcon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.50
0.33
0.33
0.40
0.67
vs Stronger (16)
0.31
0.56
0.29
0.14
0.33
0.89
vs Similar (14)
0.43
0.43
0.38
0.50
0.50
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.67
0.62
0.75
0.29
0.57
vs Stronger (10)
0.50
1.10
0.60
1.60
0.40
0.60
vs Similar (20)
0.45
0.45
0.64
0.36
0.22
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alcorcon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.67
0.47
0.40
0.27
0.93
vs Stronger (16)
0.38
0.75
0.57
0.43
0.22
1.00
vs Similar (14)
0.36
0.57
0.38
0.38
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Eldense) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Eldense
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.67
0.56
0.44
0.64
0.93
vs Stronger (10)
0.60
0.60
1.00
0.40
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.70
0.36
0.45
0.89
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Eldense over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alcorcon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dyego Sousa30%
Jacobo González14%
Christian Borrego11%
Javier Pérez Mateo9%
Emmanuel Addai9%
Víctor García8%
Fede Vico6%
Chema4%
Juanma Bravo4%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Pedro Mosquera3%
Yan Eteki3%
Javier Lara3%
Javier Castro2%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Juan Artola0%
Óscar Rivas0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yan Eteki38%
Chema33%
Jacobo González31%
Iago López Carracedo24%
Xavier Quintilla23%
Óscar Rivas22%
Dyego Sousa22%
Alejandro López20%
Pedro Mosquera19%
Javier Pérez Mateo17%
Iker Bilbao17%
Víctor García16%
David Morillas14%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi14%
Juan Artola14%
Jean-Sylvain Babin12%
Javier Castro10%
Juanma Bravo8%
Christian Borrego8%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez7%
Fede Vico6%
Javier Lara3%
Emmanuel Addai3%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fede Vico19%
Álvaro Bustos12%
Emmanuel Addai11%
Xavier Quintilla9%
Jacobo González8%
Víctor García8%
Iago López Carracedo6%
Juanma Bravo4%
Javier Lara3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Dyego Sousa0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Christian Borrego0%
Juan Artola0%
Javier Castro0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Addai40%
Jacobo González25%
Marciano Sanca Tchami9%
Dyego Sousa9%
Víctor García5%
Juan Artola3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Christian Borrego3%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Fede Vico0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Javier Lara0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Juanma Bravo0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Javier Castro0%
Eldense
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Juanto Ortuño27%
Mario Soberón21%
Iván Chapela20%
Eddie Salcedo18%
Florin Andone10%
Sergio Ortuño Díaz10%
Dario Đumić6%
Jesús Clemente6%
Carlos4%
Christian Montes3%
Pedro Capó3%
David Timor3%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Derick Poloni0%
Álex Martínez0%
Marc Mateu0%
Andoni Zubiaurre0%
Miguel Marí0%
Guillermo Vallejo Delgado0%
Ian Mackay Abad0%
Marc-Olivier Doué0%
Piña0%
Alex Bernal0%
Toni Abad0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Youness Lachhab0%
Alvaro Aceves Catalina0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
David Timor35%
Dario Đumić34%
Florin Andone24%
Youness Lachhab22%
Jesús Clemente22%
Sergio Ortuño Díaz20%
Toni Abad18%
Derick Poloni16%
Alex Bernal15%
Dauda Mohammed14%
Ian Mackay Abad14%
Pedro Capó13%
Carlos11%
Marc-Olivier Doué11%
Piña10%
Andoni Zubiaurre10%
Eddie Salcedo9%
Juanto Ortuño8%
Joel Jorquera8%
Marc Mateu8%
Mario Soberón6%
Iván Chapela5%
Christian Montes3%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Álex Martínez0%
Miguel Marí0%
Guillermo Vallejo Delgado0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Alvaro Aceves Catalina0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marc Mateu18%
Toni Abad18%
Sergio Ortuño Díaz10%
Eddie Salcedo9%
Mario Soberón9%
Jesús Clemente8%
Alex Bernal6%
Florin Andone3%
Piña3%
Dario Đumić3%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Derick Poloni0%
Álex Martínez0%
Carlos0%
David Timor0%
Andoni Zubiaurre0%
Miguel Marí0%
Juanto Ortuño0%
Guillermo Vallejo Delgado0%
Ian Mackay Abad0%
Marc-Olivier Doué0%
Christian Montes0%
Pedro Capó0%
Iván Chapela0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Youness Lachhab0%
Alvaro Aceves Catalina0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mario Soberón15%
Jesús Clemente14%
Juanto Ortuño11%
Florin Andone10%
Eddie Salcedo9%
Carlos7%
David Timor5%
Iván Chapela5%
Derick Poloni4%
Sergio Ortuño Díaz2%
Dario Đumić0%
Nacho Monsalve0%
Dauda Mohammed0%
Álex Martínez0%
Marc Mateu0%
Andoni Zubiaurre0%
Miguel Marí0%
Guillermo Vallejo Delgado0%
Ian Mackay Abad0%
Marc-Olivier Doué0%
Christian Montes0%
Piña0%
Alex Bernal0%
Toni Abad0%
Pedro Capó0%
Joel Jorquera0%
Arnau Ortiz0%
Youness Lachhab0%
Alvaro Aceves Catalina0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →