This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Ferrol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
0.33
2.00
0.00
1.00
0.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
62.4%
Under 1.5
37.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
34.0%
@ 2.66-1.4%
Under 2.5
66.0%
@ 1.46+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
15.4%
Under 3.5
84.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
42.0%
No
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.6%
0-0
14.0%
0-1
13.7%
1-0
9.9%
0-2
8.8%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
5.8%
2-0
5.0%
Alcorcon goals ↓
Racing Ferrol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
14%
14%
8.8%
3.5%
1.0%
1
9.9%
15%
7.8%
3.1%
0.9%
2
5.0%
5.8%
3.4%
1.4%
0.4%
3
1.5%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.3%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alcorcon goals (down), columns = Racing Ferrol goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Leganes
1.76
Valladolid
1.71
Espanyol
1.65
Eibar
1.64
Oviedo
1.54
Racing Santander
1.52
Sporting Gijon
1.50
Burgos
1.40
Levante
1.40
Elche
1.40
Racing Ferrol
1.40
Tenerife
1.33
FC Cartagena
1.21
Zaragoza
1.21
Albacete
1.21
Eldense
1.19
Huesca
1.17
Mirandes
1.17
Amorebieta
1.07
Alcorcon
1.05
Villarreal II
1.02
FC Andorra
1.02
Alcorcon is 0.36 points worse than Racing Ferrol in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 1.40).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Eibar
1.64
Racing Santander
1.50
Espanyol
1.35
Leganes
1.33
Oviedo
1.26
Burgos
1.24
Valladolid
1.21
Albacete
1.19
Levante
1.17
Racing Ferrol
1.17
Sporting Gijon
1.16
Mirandes
1.12
Eldense
1.10
Elche
1.02
Zaragoza
1.00
Villarreal II
0.98
Tenerife
0.90
Amorebieta
0.88
FC Cartagena
0.88
Huesca
0.86
FC Andorra
0.79
Alcorcon
0.76
Alcorcon is 0.40 goals worse than Racing Ferrol in terms of goals scored per game (0.76 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Leganes
0.64
Huesca
0.79
Valladolid
0.86
Oviedo
0.89
Espanyol
0.89
Tenerife
0.98
Sporting Gijon
0.98
Zaragoza
1.00
Levante
1.07
Elche
1.10
Eibar
1.14
FC Cartagena
1.21
Racing Ferrol
1.24
Amorebieta
1.26
FC Andorra
1.26
Alcorcon
1.26
Burgos
1.29
Racing Santander
1.31
Mirandes
1.31
Eldense
1.33
Albacete
1.33
Villarreal II
1.48
Alcorcon is 0.02 goals worse than Racing Ferrol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.26 vs 1.24).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
63%
Elche
58%
Valladolid
56%
Eibar
55%
Oviedo
54%
Sporting Gijon
54%
Levante
52%
Racing Ferrol
52%
Espanyol
51%
Zaragoza
50%
Villarreal II
50%
Tenerife
50%
Albacete
49%
Racing Santander
47%
Burgos
47%
Amorebieta
46%
Leganes
46%
Eldense
45%
Huesca
45%
Mirandes
45%
FC Cartagena
44%
Alcorcon
42%
Alcorcon is 9.9 percentage points worse than Racing Ferrol in terms of average possession (42% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alcorcon
For 4.8 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 13.2 · Total 26.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Racing Ferrol
For 3.7 · Against 4.7 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.3 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alcorcon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.7
8.7
8.7
4.5
4.4
4.6
27.1
26.7
27.4
vs Stronger (28)
8.8
8.9
8.7
5.0
4.9
5.2
28.1
28.2
28.0
vs Similar (22)
8.5
8.5
8.6
3.7
3.7
3.7
25.8
24.8
26.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
42%
32%
52%
64%
64%
64%
86%
88%
84%
% under line
58%
68%
48%
36%
36%
36%
14%
12%
16%
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Ferrol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (3)
8.3
8.0
8.5
2.7
2.0
3.0
25.3
28.0
24.0
vs Stronger (3)
8.3
8.0
8.5
2.7
2.0
3.0
25.3
28.0
24.0
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
0%
0%
0%
33%
0%
50%
67%
100%
50%
% under line
100%
100%
100%
67%
100%
50%
33%
0%
50%
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Espanyol
10.4
Huesca
10.2
Mirandes
10.0
Valladolid
9.7
Amorebieta
9.6
Sporting Gijon
9.4
Eldense
9.3
Zaragoza
9.3
Eibar
9.3
Levante
9.2
Burgos
9.1
Racing Santander
9.1
Elche
9.0
Oviedo
8.8
Alcorcon
8.7
Tenerife
8.7
FC Cartagena
8.6
Leganes
8.5
Albacete
8.4
Racing Ferrol
8.3
FC Andorra
6.7
Villarreal II
6.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.0
Espanyol
5.7
Levante
5.5
Tenerife
5.3
Albacete
5.2
Zaragoza
5.2
Valladolid
5.2
Oviedo
5.2
FC Andorra
5.0
Huesca
5.0
Elche
5.0
FC Cartagena
5.0
Mirandes
4.8
Sporting Gijon
4.7
Leganes
4.7
Alcorcon
4.5
Eibar
4.4
Burgos
4.2
Amorebieta
4.1
Villarreal II
3.7
Eldense
3.3
Racing Ferrol
2.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Racing Santander
33.8
Leganes
29.9
Albacete
29.0
FC Cartagena
28.9
FC Andorra
28.0
Tenerife
27.9
Huesca
27.9
Oviedo
27.1
Alcorcon
27.1
Valladolid
27.1
Elche
26.9
Eldense
26.7
Espanyol
26.6
Zaragoza
26.2
Amorebieta
25.7
Levante
25.7
Racing Ferrol
25.3
Mirandes
25.2
Burgos
24.6
Eibar
24.4
Villarreal II
24.3
Sporting Gijon
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
48.6%
Under 9.5
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.4%
Under 3.5
32.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
81.8%
Under 21.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alcorcon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.70
0.21
0.64
0.56
0.75
vs Stronger (15)
0.40
0.53
0.25
0.50
0.57
0.57
vs Similar (15)
0.40
0.87
0.17
0.83
0.56
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Ferrol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
100% (+69pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alcorcon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.83
0.43
0.57
0.56
1.06
vs Stronger (15)
0.47
0.87
0.25
0.88
0.71
0.86
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.67
0.17
0.44
1.22
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+15pp vs league)
This opponent (Racing Ferrol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Racing Ferrol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.33
2.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
67% (+35pp vs league)
This opponent (Alcorcon) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alcorcon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alcorcon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Racing Ferrol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
74.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Alcorcon
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dyego Sousa30%
Jacobo González14%
Christian Borrego11%
Javier Pérez Mateo9%
Emmanuel Addai9%
Víctor García8%
Fede Vico6%
Chema4%
Juanma Bravo4%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi3%
Pedro Mosquera3%
Yan Eteki3%
Javier Lara3%
Javier Castro2%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Juan Artola0%
Óscar Rivas0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Yan Eteki38%
Chema33%
Jacobo González31%
Iago López Carracedo24%
Xavier Quintilla23%
Óscar Rivas22%
Dyego Sousa22%
Alejandro López20%
Pedro Mosquera19%
Javier Pérez Mateo17%
Iker Bilbao17%
Víctor García16%
David Morillas14%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi14%
Juan Artola14%
Jean-Sylvain Babin12%
Javier Castro10%
Juanma Bravo8%
Christian Borrego8%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez7%
Fede Vico6%
Javier Lara3%
Emmanuel Addai3%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fede Vico19%
Álvaro Bustos12%
Emmanuel Addai11%
Xavier Quintilla9%
Jacobo González8%
Víctor García8%
Iago López Carracedo6%
Juanma Bravo4%
Javier Lara3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Dyego Sousa0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Christian Borrego0%
Juan Artola0%
Javier Castro0%
Marciano Sanca Tchami0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Emmanuel Addai40%
Jacobo González25%
Marciano Sanca Tchami9%
Dyego Sousa9%
Víctor García5%
Juan Artola3%
Óscar Rivas3%
Christian Borrego3%
Xavier Quintilla0%
Fede Vico0%
Pedro Mosquera0%
Jean-Sylvain Babin0%
Yan Eteki0%
David Morillas0%
Javier Lara0%
Alejandro López0%
Chema0%
Álvaro Bustos0%
Juanma Bravo0%
Koldo Obieta Alberdi0%
Iago López Carracedo0%
Jesús Ruiz Suárez0%
Javier Pérez Mateo0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Iker Bilbao0%
Javier Castro0%
Racing Ferrol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nico Serrano29%
Álvaro Giménez24%
Iker Losada21%
Carlos Vicente19%
Josep Señé17%
Álvaro Vadillo12%
Heber Pena Picos11%
Óscar Pinchi9%
Sabin Merino8%
Jon Garcia5%
Manu Justo5%
Alex López3%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Nacho Sánchez0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Álex Martín0%
Jesús Bernal0%
Enrique Clemente0%
David Castro0%
Sergio Cubero0%
Brais Martínez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Moises Delgado27%
Álvaro Vadillo25%
Jon Garcia24%
David Castro24%
Óscar Pinchi18%
Jesús Bernal17%
Brais Martínez17%
Sergio Cubero15%
Alex López12%
Álex Martín12%
Heber Pena Picos11%
Álvaro Giménez11%
Josep Señé10%
Enrique Clemente10%
Carlos Vicente10%
Nacho Sánchez8%
Nico Serrano7%
Francisco De La Manzanara7%
Sabin Merino6%
Julián Delmás5%
Manu Justo5%
Ander Cantero2%
Chuca0%
Iker Losada0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Heber Pena Picos22%
Carlos Vicente19%
Iker Losada14%
Nico Serrano14%
Álvaro Giménez11%
Óscar Pinchi9%
Nacho Sánchez8%
Jon Garcia5%
Jesús Bernal5%
Josep Señé3%
Sergio Cubero3%
David Castro3%
Alex López0%
Álvaro Vadillo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Sabin Merino0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Álex Martín0%
Manu Justo0%
Enrique Clemente0%
Brais Martínez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Nico Serrano29%
Carlos Vicente19%
Iker Losada17%
Álvaro Giménez13%
Heber Pena Picos8%
Alex López6%
Sabin Merino6%
Nacho Sánchez4%
Sergio Cubero3%
Jon Garcia3%
Álvaro Vadillo0%
Julián Delmás0%
Ander Cantero0%
Francisco De La Manzanara0%
Moises Delgado0%
Chuca0%
Josep Señé0%
Óscar Pinchi0%
Álex Martín0%
Manu Justo0%
Jesús Bernal0%
Enrique Clemente0%
David Castro0%
Brais Martínez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
Spain: Segunda División 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →