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Aldershot vs Hartlepool Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 2-1
Aldershot
Aldershot
Vs
44%
25%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
England: National League
Referee: K Dowle
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aldershot win✓ Hit
44.2%
Avg Implied 31.7% · @ 2.91
Edge
+12.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
24.8%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.60
Edge
-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool win✗ Miss
30.9%
Avg Implied 42.7% · @ 2.16
Edge
-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-403L34L20W11D12L21W11D32W12L10WA·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09H·SOU26/09H·DAG30/09A·ALT03/10A·SOL07/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.802.001.711.191.88
vs Stronger (18)1.722.062.222.111.222.00
vs Similar (12)1.331.421.601.001.141.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HartlepoolHartlepool

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-523L21W25L02L22D10W02L02L01L31WA·CHE28/08H·WEA02/09A·OXF09/09H·WOK16/09A·ALT19/09A·DAG23/09H·SOL26/09H·DOR30/09A·BOR04/10H·EAS07/10
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.631.501.381.571.93
vs Stronger (21)1.381.521.401.401.361.64
vs Similar (9)1.891.891.671.332.333.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %3% (-23pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%010%121%222%318%412%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.9%
Under 1.5
15.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
63.6%
@ 1.62+6.1%
Under 2.5
36.4%
@ 2.19-6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
41.5%
Under 3.5
58.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.5%
No
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%
2-1 ✓
9.0%
1-2
7.4%
2-2
6.7%
2-0
6.1%
1-0
5.8%
3-1
5.4%
0-0
4.8%
Aldershot goals ↓
Hartlepool goals →
01234
04.8%4.6%4.1%2.0%0.8%
15.8%11%7.4%3.7%1.4%
26.1%9.0%6.7%3.3%1.2%
33.6%5.4%4.0%2.0%0.7%
41.6%2.4%1.8%0.9%0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aldershot goals (down), columns = Hartlepool goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Aldershot is 0.20 points better than Hartlepool in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.30).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Hartlepool
1.52
Southend
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Aldershot is 0.09 goals better than Hartlepool in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Aldershot is 0.02 goals worse than Hartlepool in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 1.78).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Aldershot is 0.2 percentage points worse than Hartlepool in terms of average possession (50% vs 50%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-101L11D00D00D01L10W10W11D01L00DA·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09H·SOU26/09H·DAG30/09A·ALT03/10A·SOL07/10
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.731.000.570.250.88
vs Stronger (18)0.720.941.220.890.221.00
vs Similar (12)0.420.420.600.000.290.71
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HartlepoolHartlepool

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-221W10W21W00D12L10W02L00D00D11DA·CHE28/08H·WEA02/09A·OXF09/09H·WOK16/09A·ALT19/09A·DAG23/09H·SOL26/09H·DOR30/09A·BOR04/10H·EAS07/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.700.440.560.710.86
vs Stronger (21)0.430.620.300.500.550.73
vs Similar (9)0.890.890.670.671.331.33
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L23L20W11D11D11D01L21W11D10WA·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09H·SOU26/09H·DAG30/09A·ALT03/10A·SOL07/10
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.971.071.001.140.941.00
vs Stronger (18)1.001.111.001.221.001.00
vs Similar (12)0.921.001.001.000.861.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Hartlepool) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

HartlepoolHartlepool

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L11D04L02L10W00D00D02L01L20WA·CHE28/08H·WEA02/09A·OXF09/09H·WOK16/09A·ALT19/09A·DAG23/09H·SOL26/09H·DOR30/09A·BOR04/10H·EAS07/10
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.970.931.060.810.861.07
vs Stronger (21)0.950.901.100.900.820.91
vs Similar (9)1.001.001.000.671.001.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hartlepool over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards79.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards75.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Aldershot and Hartlepool have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Hartlepool have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Hartlepool have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Hartlepool have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
0
ALD wins
0
Draws
2
HAR wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aldershot vs Hartlepool · H/A from ALD
DateH/AGameScore
15/05/21HALD Vs Hartlepool1-3
03/10/20AHartlepool Vs ALD2-1

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23ASolihull Vs ALD0-1
03/10/23AAltrincham Vs ALD2-1
30/09/23HALD Vs Dag and Red3-2
26/09/23HALD Vs Southend1-1
23/09/23ABoreham Wood Vs ALD1-2
19/09/23ABarnet Vs ALD2-1
16/09/23HALD Vs Gateshead1-1
09/09/23AFylde Vs ALD0-2
02/09/23HALD Vs Chesterfield3-4
28/08/23AEastleigh Vs ALD3-0

HartlepoolHartlepool

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23HHAR Vs Eastleigh3-1
04/10/23ABoreham Wood Vs HAR1-0
30/09/23HHAR Vs Dorking0-2
26/09/23HHAR Vs Solihull0-2
23/09/23ADag and Red Vs HAR0-1
19/09/23AAltrincham Vs HAR2-2
16/09/23HHAR Vs Woking0-2
09/09/23AOxford City Vs HAR5-2
02/09/23HHAR Vs Wealdstone2-1
28/08/23AChesterfield Vs HAR3-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDWLW1.30
HomeWLDDW1.25
AwayWLWLW1.35
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %34%29%38%
AVG goals3.183.043.31
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %56%46%65%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.501.541.46
Conceded1.681.501.85
BTTS66%75%58%
Clean Sheet20%12%27%
Corners---
Cards3.704.123.31
Hartlepool
Hartlepool
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLLW1.18
HomeWLLLW1.38
AwayLLDWL0.96
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%38%25%
AVG goals3.103.123.08
Over 1.5 %90%96%83%
Over 2.5 %58%62%54%
Over 3.5 %38%35%42%
Scored1.381.461.29
Conceded1.721.651.79
BTTS66%69%62%
Clean Sheet8%4%12%
Corners9.149.948.29
Cards3.183.422.92

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ChesterfieldChesterfield4698
67%
2.1
10665+41
3.7
91%
74%
52%
-
0%
4.0
48%
-
0%
6
3122.31.4
60%
2BarnetBarnet4686
57%
1.9
9160+31
3.3
87%
57%
39%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
4
0132.01.3
57%
3BromleyBromley4681
48%
1.8
7349+24
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.6
41%
-
0%
4
1121.61.1
43%
4AltrinchamAltrincham4677
48%
1.7
8459+25
3.1
80%
65%
37%
-
0%
3.7
50%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
52%
5SolihullSolihull4676
46%
1.7
7162+9
2.9
85%
57%
24%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
48%
6SouthendSouthend4675
46%
1.6
7045+25
2.5
85%
48%
13%
-
0%
3.3
39%
-
0%
1
0001.51.0
56%
7GatesheadGateshead4675
48%
1.6
8864+24
3.3
87%
63%
41%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
61%
8HalifaxHalifax4671
41%
1.5
5850+8
2.3
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.2
52%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
48%
9AldershotAldershot4669
43%
1.5
7483-9
3.4
85%
61%
39%
-
0%
4.5
63%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
50%
10OldhamOldham4663
33%
1.4
6360+3
2.7
78%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
46%
11RochdaleRochdale4662
35%
1.3
6964+5
2.9
83%
59%
33%
-
0%
4.0
52%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
55%
12HartlepoolHartlepool4660
37%
1.3
7082-12
3.3
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
50%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
35%
1.3
7387-14
3.5
80%
65%
41%
-
0%
4.1
52%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
44%
14
M
Maidenhead		4658
33%
1.3
6067-7
2.8
70%
52%
39%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
42%
15
DA
Dag and Red		4656
30%
1.2
6963+6
2.9
74%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6072-12
2.9
74%
48%
33%
-
0%
4.0
50%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
55%
17WokingWoking4655
33%
1.2
4955-6
2.3
65%
37%
17%
-
0%
4.2
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
49%
18
F
Fylde		4655
33%
1.2
7482-8
3.4
96%
74%
43%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
47%
19
E
Ebbsfleet		4654
30%
1.2
5974-15
2.9
76%
50%
33%
-
0%
4.5
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
52%
20YorkYork4653
26%
1.2
5569-14
2.7
83%
46%
30%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
45%
21Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4652
26%
1.1
5973-14
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
3.5
39%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
43%
22
K
Kidderminster		4646
24%
1.0
4059-19
2.2
63%
41%
15%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
46%
23
D
Dorking		4645
26%
1.0
5485-31
3.0
78%
59%
33%
-
0%
3.9
63%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
53%
24
OC
Oxford City		4633
17%
0.7
5494-40
3.2
83%
65%
43%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
48%
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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