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Aldershot vs Maidenhead Result & Analysis

Date: 08/01/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Aldershot
Aldershot
Vs
56%
24%
20%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
M
Maidenhead
England: National League
Referee: R Massey-Ellis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aldershot win✗ Miss
55.7%
Avg Implied 49.4% · @ 1.87
Edge
+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
24.3%
Avg Implied 26.1% · @ 3.54
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead win✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied 24.5% · @ 3.77
Edge
-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-512L05L21W10W10W22D30W11D01L32WA·BAR30/10H·WRE09/11H·GRI13/11H·TOR23/11A·KIN27/11H·ALT04/12A·EAS11/12H·WOK26/12A·DAG28/12A·WOK02/01
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.801.121.881.641.71
vs Stronger (17)1.182.061.002.381.331.78
vs Similar (13)1.621.461.251.382.201.60
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Maidenhead

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L32W32W01L14L04L03L11D04L10WA·ALT09/10H·WOK23/10H·WRE26/10A·EAS30/10H·DAG13/11A·BOR20/11A·BAR04/12A·SOU07/12H·SOL11/12H·BRO28/12
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.101.871.312.190.861.50
vs Stronger (3)1.672.001.672.00--
vs Similar (14)0.932.211.142.430.712.00
vs Weaker (13)1.151.461.332.001.001.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%013%124%222%317%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
80.8%
Under 1.5
19.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
57.2%
@ 1.89+7.8%
Under 2.5
42.8%
@ 1.85-7.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.8%
Under 3.5
65.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
57.1%
No
42.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
11.4%
2-1
9.9%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.6%
3-1
6.3%
0-0
6.1%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.6%
Aldershot goals ↓
Maidenhead goals →
01234
06.1%4.4%2.9%1.1%0.3%
18.6%11%5.6%2.0%0.5%
29.2%9.9%5.3%1.9%0.5%
35.8%6.3%3.4%1.2%0.3%
42.8%3.0%1.6%0.6%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aldershot goals (down), columns = Maidenhead goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Aldershot is 0.18 points worse than Maidenhead in terms of average points per game (0.98 vs 1.16).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Aldershot is 0.05 goals worse than Maidenhead in terms of goals scored per game (1.05 vs 1.09).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Aldershot is 0.14 goals worse than Maidenhead in terms of goals conceded per game (1.66 vs 1.52).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L02L11D00D00D21W00D00D01L01LA·BAR30/10H·WRE09/11H·GRI13/11H·TOR23/11A·KIN27/11H·ALT04/12A·EAS11/12H·WOK26/12A·DAG28/12A·WOK02/01
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.770.440.750.500.79
vs Stronger (17)0.470.820.380.880.560.78
vs Similar (13)0.460.690.500.620.400.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Maidenhead

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D21W01L02L02L01L01L03L00DA·ALT09/10H·WOK23/10H·WRE26/10A·EAS30/10H·DAG13/11A·BOR20/11A·BAR04/12A·SOU07/12H·SOL11/12H·BRO28/12
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.800.620.940.290.64
vs Stronger (3)1.330.671.330.67--
vs Similar (14)0.210.930.141.140.290.71
vs Weaker (13)0.540.690.830.830.290.57
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D03L10W10W10W01L30W11D00D31WA·BAR30/10H·WRE09/11H·GRI13/11H·TOR23/11A·KIN27/11H·ALT04/12A·EAS11/12H·WOK26/12A·DAG28/12A·WOK02/01
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.901.030.691.121.140.93
vs Stronger (17)0.711.240.621.500.781.00
vs Similar (13)1.150.770.750.751.800.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Maidenhead) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

M
Maidenhead

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L21W11D00D12L02L02L10W01L10WA·ALT09/10H·WOK23/10H·WRE26/10A·EAS30/10H·DAG13/11A·BOR20/11A·BAR04/12A·SOU07/12H·SOL11/12H·BRO28/12
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.631.070.691.250.570.86
vs Stronger (3)0.331.330.331.33--
vs Similar (14)0.711.291.001.290.431.29
vs Weaker (13)0.620.770.501.170.710.43
Clean sheet %33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Maidenhead over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards86.3%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.580.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards71.5%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
1
ALD wins
1
Draws
0
MAI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aldershot vs Maidenhead · H/A from ALD
DateH/AGameScore
23/02/21AMaidenhead Vs ALD2-4
17/11/20HALD Vs Maidenhead0-0

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
02/01/22AWoking Vs ALD2-3
28/12/21ADag and Red Vs ALD1-0
26/12/21HALD Vs Woking1-1
11/12/21AEastleigh Vs ALD0-3
04/12/21HALD Vs Altrincham2-2
27/11/21AKing’s Lynn Vs ALD0-1
23/11/21HALD Vs Torquay1-0
13/11/21HALD Vs Grimsby2-1
09/11/21HALD Vs Wrexham0-5
30/10/21ABarnet Vs ALD2-1

M
Maidenhead

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/12/21HMAI Vs Bromley1-0
11/12/21HMAI Vs Solihull0-4
07/12/21ASouthend Vs MAI1-1
04/12/21ABarnet Vs MAI3-0
20/11/21ABoreham Wood Vs MAI4-0
13/11/21HMAI Vs Dag and Red1-4
30/10/21AEastleigh Vs MAI1-0
26/10/21HMAI Vs Wrexham3-2
23/10/21HMAI Vs Woking3-2
09/10/21AAltrincham Vs MAI2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWDLW1.22
HomeLWWDD1.00
AwayLWWLW1.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%28%44%
AVG goals3.003.003.00
Over 1.5 %76%88%64%
Over 2.5 %58%60%56%
Over 3.5 %34%32%36%
Scored1.401.241.56
Conceded1.601.761.44
BTTS54%60%48%
Clean Sheet22%16%28%
Corners---
Cards4.024.203.84
M
Maidenhead
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 1 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLDLW1.14
HomeWWLLW1.19
AwayLLLLD1.08
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%35%25%
AVG goals2.923.152.67
Over 1.5 %72%73%71%
Over 2.5 %56%58%54%
Over 3.5 %40%46%33%
Scored1.341.421.25
Conceded1.581.731.42
BTTS48%46%50%
Clean Sheet24%23%25%
Corners---
Cards3.222.923.54

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red
4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay
4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead
4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn
4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth
4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic
4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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