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Aldershot vs Southend Result & Analysis

Date: 26/09/2023
Time: 19:45
Final 1-1
Aldershot
Aldershot
Vs
39%
29%
32%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Referee: D Mcnamara
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aldershot win✗ Miss
39.1%
Avg Implied 34.8% · @ 2.66
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.5%
Avg Implied 26.9% · @ 3.44
Edge
+1.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win✗ Miss
32.4%
Avg Implied 38.4% · @ 2.41
Edge
-5.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-515L02L11D31W03L34L20W11D12L21WA·OLD12/08A·EBB15/08H·YOR19/08H·WEA26/08A·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.701.801.531.331.87
vs Stronger (20)1.651.801.901.801.401.80
vs Similar (10)1.401.501.601.001.202.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-13pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-320W12L23L20W12L21W11D03L20W12LA·DAG12/08A·DOR15/08H·HAR19/08H·EAS25/08A·BRO28/08H·KID02/09A·HAL09/09A·YOR16/09H·MAI19/09H·FYL23/09
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.171.710.930.941.38
vs Stronger (15)1.071.271.331.000.891.44
vs Similar (14)1.571.002.140.711.001.29
vs Weaker (1)1.002.001.002.00--
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.4%
Under 1.5
24.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.4%
@ 1.77-3.2%
Under 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.96+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.5%
Under 3.5
72.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
55.0%
No
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.6%
1-0
8.6%
2-1
8.6%
0-0
8.3%
1-2
7.8%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
6.9%
0-2
5.6%
Aldershot goals ↓
Southend goals →
01234
08.3%7.6%5.6%2.3%0.7%
18.6%14%7.8%3.2%1.0%
26.9%8.6%5.4%2.3%0.7%
33.2%4.0%2.5%1.1%0.3%
41.1%1.4%0.9%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aldershot goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Aldershot is 0.13 points worse than Southend in terms of average points per game (1.50 vs 1.63).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Hartlepool
1.52
Southend
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Aldershot is 0.09 goals better than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.61 vs 1.52).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Aldershot is 0.83 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals conceded per game (1.80 vs 0.98).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Aldershot is 5.7 percentage points worse than Southend in terms of average possession (50% vs 56%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-303L01L10W10W01L11D00D00D01L10WA·OLD12/08A·EBB15/08H·YOR19/08H·WEA26/08A·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.670.930.470.330.87
vs Stronger (20)0.700.801.100.700.300.90
vs Similar (10)0.500.400.600.000.400.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W11D11D20W01L00D00D01L00D01LA·DAG12/08A·DOR15/08H·HAR19/08H·EAS25/08A·BRO28/08H·KID02/09A·HAL09/09A·YOR16/09H·MAI19/09H·FYL23/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.430.470.500.360.380.56
vs Stronger (15)0.270.600.000.330.440.78
vs Similar (14)0.570.360.860.430.290.29
vs Weaker (1)1.000.001.000.00--
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L01L01L21W02L23L20W11D11D11DA·OLD12/08A·EBB15/08H·YOR19/08H·WEA26/08A·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.030.871.071.001.00
vs Stronger (20)0.951.000.801.101.100.90
vs Similar (10)0.901.101.001.000.801.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W01L12L00D11D21W11D02L20W11DA·DAG12/08A·DOR15/08H·HAR19/08H·EAS25/08A·BRO28/08H·KID02/09A·HAL09/09A·YOR16/09H·MAI19/09H·FYL23/09
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.701.210.570.560.81
vs Stronger (15)0.800.671.330.670.440.67
vs Similar (14)1.000.641.290.290.711.00
vs Weaker (1)0.002.000.002.00--
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 2.5 cards88.8%-------✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards75.7%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.575.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.572.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Aldershot and Southend have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Aldershot and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
3
ALD wins
1
Draws
0
SOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aldershot vs Southend · H/A from ALD
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23ASouthend Vs ALD1-2
26/11/22HALD Vs Southend2-0
25/01/22HALD Vs Southend1-1
14/09/21ASouthend Vs ALD2-3

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23ABoreham Wood Vs ALD1-2
19/09/23ABarnet Vs ALD2-1
16/09/23HALD Vs Gateshead1-1
09/09/23AFylde Vs ALD0-2
02/09/23HALD Vs Chesterfield3-4
28/08/23AEastleigh Vs ALD3-0
26/08/23HALD Vs Wealdstone3-1
19/08/23HALD Vs York1-1
15/08/23AEbbsfleet Vs ALD2-0
12/08/23AOldham Vs ALD5-1

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
23/09/23HSOU Vs Fylde1-2
19/09/23HSOU Vs Maidenhead2-0
16/09/23AYork Vs SOU3-0
09/09/23AHalifax Vs SOU1-1
02/09/23HSOU Vs Kidderminster2-1
28/08/23ABromley Vs SOU2-1
25/08/23HSOU Vs Eastleigh2-0
19/08/23HSOU Vs Hartlepool2-3
15/08/23ADorking Vs SOU2-1
12/08/23ADag and Red Vs SOU0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 3 Wins / 2 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLWDLW1.22
HomeWDWLD1.21
AwayLLWLW1.23
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%29%35%
AVG goals3.203.123.27
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %28%25%31%
Scored1.501.621.38
Conceded1.701.501.88
BTTS64%75%54%
Clean Sheet18%12%23%
Corners---
Cards3.423.833.04
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWL1.54
HomeLWWWL1.84
AwayWLLDL1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%56%36%
AVG goals2.442.522.36
Over 1.5 %78%80%76%
Over 2.5 %48%52%44%
Over 3.5 %18%20%16%
Scored1.381.641.12
Conceded1.060.881.24
BTTS42%44%40%
Clean Sheet38%48%28%
Corners---
Cards3.883.803.96

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ChesterfieldChesterfield4698
67%
2.1
10665+41
3.7
91%
74%
52%
-
0%
4.0
48%
-
0%
6
3122.31.4
60%
2BarnetBarnet4686
57%
1.9
9160+31
3.3
87%
57%
39%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
4
0132.01.3
57%
3BromleyBromley4681
48%
1.8
7349+24
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.6
41%
-
0%
4
1121.61.1
43%
4AltrinchamAltrincham4677
48%
1.7
8459+25
3.1
80%
65%
37%
-
0%
3.7
50%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
52%
5SolihullSolihull4676
46%
1.7
7162+9
2.9
85%
57%
24%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
48%
6SouthendSouthend4675
46%
1.6
7045+25
2.5
85%
48%
13%
-
0%
3.3
39%
-
0%
1
0001.51.0
56%
7GatesheadGateshead4675
48%
1.6
8864+24
3.3
87%
63%
41%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
61%
8HalifaxHalifax4671
41%
1.5
5850+8
2.3
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.2
52%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
48%
9AldershotAldershot4669
43%
1.5
7483-9
3.4
85%
61%
39%
-
0%
4.5
63%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
50%
10OldhamOldham4663
33%
1.4
6360+3
2.7
78%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
46%
11RochdaleRochdale4662
35%
1.3
6964+5
2.9
83%
59%
33%
-
0%
4.0
52%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
55%
12HartlepoolHartlepool4660
37%
1.3
7082-12
3.3
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
50%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
35%
1.3
7387-14
3.5
80%
65%
41%
-
0%
4.1
52%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
44%
14
M
Maidenhead		4658
33%
1.3
6067-7
2.8
70%
52%
39%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
42%
15
DA
Dag and Red		4656
30%
1.2
6963+6
2.9
74%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6072-12
2.9
74%
48%
33%
-
0%
4.0
50%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
55%
17WokingWoking4655
33%
1.2
4955-6
2.3
65%
37%
17%
-
0%
4.2
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
49%
18
F
Fylde		4655
33%
1.2
7482-8
3.4
96%
74%
43%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
47%
19
E
Ebbsfleet		4654
30%
1.2
5974-15
2.9
76%
50%
33%
-
0%
4.5
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
52%
20YorkYork4653
26%
1.2
5569-14
2.7
83%
46%
30%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
45%
21Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4652
26%
1.1
5973-14
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
3.5
39%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
43%
22
K
Kidderminster		4646
24%
1.0
4059-19
2.2
63%
41%
15%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
46%
23
D
Dorking		4645
26%
1.0
5485-31
3.0
78%
59%
33%
-
0%
3.9
63%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
53%
24
OC
Oxford City		4633
17%
0.7
5494-40
3.2
83%
65%
43%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
48%
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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