Alloa Athletic are tipped to win this League One fixture, with a 56% chance of triumph, a 25% draw probability and a 19% chance for East Kilbride. The expected total of 2.7 goals suggests a modestly high-scoring game, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 12.2% probability. Alloa, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages 1.33 goals scored and 0.56 conceded, while East Kilbride, on the road, averages 1.86 goals scored and 2.43 conceded against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.3%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4%), Under 6.5 (97.9%), Under 5.5 (94.2%), Home +2 handicap (93.3%), Away under 2.5 goals (93.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (89.6%) and Under 4.5 (86.1%). Alloa’s recent form shows a draw after a 1-1 with Peterhead, while East Kilbride come off a 0-4 loss to Ross County, hinting at a challenging night for the visitors.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Alloa Athletic win
55.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
25.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride win
18.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Alloa Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.46
1.38
0.92
1.47
1.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
4.00
-
-
2.00
4.00
vs Similar (13)
1.38
1.00
1.33
0.56
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
1.71
1.50
1.75
1.40
1.70
Clean sheet %
32% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.6
Avg scored
2.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.23
1.57
2.73
1.40
1.73
1.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
2.00
2.09
2.25
1.50
1.86
2.43
vs Weaker (19)
2.37
1.26
2.91
1.36
1.62
1.12
Clean sheet %
23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.5%
Under 1.5
23.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
51.0%
Under 2.5
49.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.9%
Under 3.5
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
51.8%
No
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.2%
1-0
10.6%
2-0
10.4%
2-1
9.8%
0-0
7.7%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
1-2
5.2%
Alloa Athletic goals ↓
East Kilbride goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
5.1%
2.9%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.2%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.8%
4.6%
1.5%
0.3%
3
6.1%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
0.2%
4
2.7%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alloa Athletic goals (down), columns = East Kilbride goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Alloa Athletic
1.28
Queen of the South
1.28
Ross County
1.25
Peterhead
1.19
Montrose
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.06
East Fife
1.00
Alloa Athletic and East Kilbride are level in average points per game (both 1.28).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Hamilton Academical
2.50
Airdrie United
1.36
East Kilbride
1.36
Alloa Athletic
1.36
Queen of the South
1.36
Peterhead
1.33
Montrose
1.33
Ross County
1.33
Cove Rangers
1.14
East Fife
0.94
Alloa Athletic and East Kilbride are level in goals scored per game (both 1.36).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Cove Rangers
1.22
Airdrie United
1.44
East Kilbride
1.44
Alloa Athletic
1.44
Queen of the South
1.44
Ross County
1.47
Hamilton Academical
1.50
East Fife
1.69
Peterhead
1.78
Montrose
1.86
Alloa Athletic and East Kilbride are level in goals conceded per game (both 1.44).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Alloa Athletic
For 5.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.0 · Against 0.0 · Total 1.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.0 · Against 13.0 · Total 22.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
East Kilbride
For 4.9 · Against 4.1 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 13.1 · Total 25.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Alloa Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (30)
10.0
-
10.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
22.0
-
22.0
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (15)
10.0
-
10.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
22.0
-
22.0
vs Weaker (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
100%
-
100%
0%
0%
0%
100%
-
100%
% under line
0%
-
0%
100%
100%
100%
0%
-
0%
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.4
10.4
4.0
3.8
4.2
26.4
24.7
28.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (18)
9.5
8.2
10.8
2.3
2.9
1.9
24.6
23.8
25.5
vs Weaker (32)
10.6
11.0
10.3
5.0
4.1
6.1
27.0
24.9
29.0
% over line
58%
56%
61%
60%
56%
64%
81%
78%
83%
% under line
42%
44%
39%
40%
44%
36%
19%
22%
17%
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Ross County
10.9
Hamilton Academical
10.5
East Kilbride
10.4
Airdrie United
10.1
Alloa Athletic
10.0
East Fife
9.6
Cove Rangers
9.4
Peterhead
8.9
Montrose
8.5
Queen of the South
6.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.6
Peterhead
5.0
Montrose
3.7
East Fife
3.5
Ross County
3.4
Airdrie United
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2
Queen of the South
3.0
Hamilton Academical
2.7
Alloa Athletic
1.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Peterhead
27.3
East Kilbride
26.4
East Fife
22.9
Montrose
22.2
Alloa Athletic
22.0
Cove Rangers
21.0
Ross County
21.0
Queen of the South
20.0
Airdrie United
20.0
Hamilton Academical
16.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.4%
Under 9.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.9%
Under 21.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Alloa Athletic or Draw
81.3%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Alloa Athletic + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic or East Kilbride
74.5%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Alloa Athletic + East Kilbride
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or East Kilbride
44.2%
Avg Implied -
56%
25%
19%
covers Draw + East Kilbride
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5
Over
83.0%
Under
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5
Over
52.9%
Under
47.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5
Over
26.2%
Under
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 3.5
Over
10.4%
Under
89.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5
Over
61.1%
Under
38.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5
Over
24.3%
Under
75.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5
Over
7.0%
Under
93.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 3.5
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Alloa Athletic, so a minus line means Alloa Athletic give that many goals of a start and East Kilbride receive them. At -1, Alloa Athletic must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Alloa Athletic win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Alloa Athletic)
Alloa Athletic -2
14.7%
Draw -2
17.5%
East Kilbride +2
67.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Alloa Athletic)
Alloa Athletic -1
32.2%
Draw -1
23.6%
East Kilbride +1
44.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Alloa Athletic)
Alloa Athletic +1
81.3%
Draw +1
12.0%
East Kilbride -1
6.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Alloa Athletic)
Alloa Athletic +2
93.3%
Draw +2
5.0%
East Kilbride -2
1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Alloa Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.54
0.86
0.46
0.38
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.54
0.38
0.56
0.11
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.50
1.21
0.25
1.00
0.60
1.30
Clean sheet %
54% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.63
1.47
0.60
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
0.64
0.64
0.75
0.75
0.57
0.57
vs Weaker (19)
1.47
0.63
1.73
0.55
1.12
0.75
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Alloa Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.89
0.61
0.92
0.54
0.87
0.67
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
-
-
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (13)
0.85
0.62
0.78
0.44
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
0.93
0.50
1.25
0.75
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (East Kilbride) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
East Kilbride
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.93
1.27
0.80
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (11)
1.36
1.45
1.50
0.75
1.29
1.86
vs Weaker (19)
0.89
0.63
1.18
0.82
0.50
0.38
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alloa Athletic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa Athletic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
East Kilbride over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
97.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
84.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
74.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (11)
€1m
HA (5)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
QOT (1)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Alloa Athletic and East Kilbride have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EK (3)
€0m
HA (1)
€0m
RC (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
Alloa Athletic and East Kilbride have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (3)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
MON (2)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
QOT (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RC (7)
€1m
QOT (1)
€0m
HA (2)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
Alloa Athletic and East Kilbride have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Hamilton Academical
Ross County
Peterhead
East Fife
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Airdrie United
Queen of the South