This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H
Hamilton
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.90
2.00
0.93
2.07
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.00
0.50
2.50
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.93
0.60
1.71
0.71
2.12
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
2.64
0.91
2.83
0.67
2.40
1.20
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
77.0%
Under 1.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
51.7%
@ 1.58-7.5%
Under 2.5
48.3%
@ 2.29+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.5%
Under 3.5
70.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
0-1 â
10.1%
0-2
9.8%
1-2
9.8%
0-0
7.6%
0-3
5.7%
1-3
5.7%
2-1
5.6%
Alloa goals ↓
Hamilton goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.6%
10%
9.8%
5.7%
2.5%
1
5.3%
12%
9.8%
5.7%
2.5%
2
3.2%
5.6%
4.9%
2.8%
1.2%
3
1.1%
1.9%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alloa goals (down), columns = Hamilton goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Alloa is 0.50 points worse than Hamilton in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 2.06).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Alloa is 0.36 goals worse than Hamilton in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 2.03).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Alloa is 0.75 goals worse than Hamilton in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 0.78).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
A
Alloa
For 6.1 · Against 4.9 · Total 11.0
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.2 · Total 2.3
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 7.7 · Against 8.6 · Total 16.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
H
Hamilton
For 5.2 · Against 5.5 · Total 10.7
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.1 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.1
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Alloa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.5
9.8
3.4
3.3
3.4
19.0
18.2
19.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (37)
10.0
9.6
10.3
3.2
3.2
3.2
18.5
17.9
19.1
vs Weaker (13)
8.8
9.3
8.2
3.8
3.9
3.8
20.3
19.1
21.7
% over line
54%
58%
50%
48%
50%
46%
28%
15%
42%
% under line
46%
42%
50%
52%
50%
54%
72%
85%
58%
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H
Hamilton
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.7
11.0
10.3
3.6
4.0
3.2
20.4
20.8
20.0
vs Stronger (4)
9.2
11.0
7.5
4.2
5.0
3.5
25.2
28.0
22.5
vs Similar (31)
11.0
11.4
10.6
3.5
4.2
2.9
20.4
20.9
19.7
vs Weaker (15)
10.4
10.4
10.4
3.5
3.4
3.7
19.3
18.9
19.9
% over line
68%
69%
67%
52%
58%
46%
34%
35%
33%
% under line
32%
31%
33%
48%
42%
54%
66%
65%
67%
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.2
Hamilton
10.7
Falkirk
10.6
Stirling
10.3
Montrose
10.2
Cove Rangers
10.1
Queen of Sth
10.0
Edinburgh City
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.8
Alloa
9.7
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.7
Montrose
4.1
Falkirk
4.1
Stirling
4.0
Queen of Sth
3.7
Kelty Hearts
3.7
Hamilton
3.6
Edinburgh City
3.6
Alloa
3.4
Cove Rangers
3.2
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kelty Hearts
21.8
Falkirk
21.7
Montrose
21.3
Annan Athletic
20.7
Queen of Sth
20.6
Hamilton
20.4
Edinburgh City
20.1
Stirling
20.0
Alloa
19.0
Cove Rangers
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
59.2%
Under 9.5
40.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
38.9%
Under 3.5
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
29.1%
Under 21.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Alloa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.47
0.27
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.42
0.58
0.40
0.30
0.44
0.89
vs Weaker (11)
1.00
0.55
0.60
0.20
1.33
0.83
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H
Hamilton
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.33
0.80
0.20
1.20
0.47
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.13
0.71
0.00
0.88
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
1.45
0.27
1.00
0.17
2.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+51pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Alloa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.83
1.00
0.73
1.20
0.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.05
0.95
1.00
0.80
1.11
1.11
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.64
1.00
0.60
1.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Hamilton) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
H
Hamilton
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.57
1.20
0.73
0.87
0.40
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.75
0.00
1.50
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
0.47
1.00
0.71
1.25
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.64
1.83
0.50
0.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Hamilton over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
89.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 4.5 cards
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 8.5 corners
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 21.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 3.5
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Falkirk
Montrose
Cove Rangers
Kelty Hearts
Annan Athletic
Stirling
Edinburgh City