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Alloa vs Kelty Hearts Result & Analysis

Date: 21/10/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 3-1
A
Alloa
Vs
35%
27%
37%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
Scotland: League One
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Alloa win✓ Hit
35.5%
Avg Implied 41.1% · @ 2.24
Edge
-5.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.4%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.49
Edge
+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts win✗ Miss
37.1%
Avg Implied 32.5% · @ 2.83
Edge
+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

A
Alloa

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L43W01L12L14L10W12L11D11D12LH·DUN06/05A·QUE05/08H·STI12/08A·KEL19/08H·FAL26/08H·COV02/09A·HAM16/09A·ANN23/09H·EDI30/09A·MON07/10
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.231.400.931.291.501.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.201.440.821.361.501.50
vs Weaker (5)1.401.201.331.001.501.50
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-514L20W02L21W01L11D22D15L31W41WA·QUE06/05A·MON05/08H·HAM12/08H·ALL19/08A·STI26/08H·ANN02/09A·COV16/09H·FAL23/09H·QUE30/09A·EDI07/10
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.331.471.331.401.331.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)1.321.601.461.541.171.67
vs Weaker (5)1.400.800.500.502.001.00
Clean sheet %23% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%19%25%7%014%125%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
78.8%
Under 1.5
21.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
54.1%
@ 1.69-0.9%
Under 2.5
45.9%
@ 2.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
31.8%
Under 3.5
68.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
58.8%
No
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.3%
0-1
7.2%
0-0
7.0%
1-0
7.0%
0-2
6.0%
2-2
5.9%
Alloa goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
01234
07.0%7.2%6.0%2.9%1.0%
17.0%13%8.5%4.1%1.5%
25.7%8.3%5.9%2.9%1.0%
32.7%3.9%2.8%1.3%0.5%
40.9%1.4%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alloa goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Alloa is 0.33 points better than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.22).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Alloa is 0.33 goals better than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.33).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Alloa is 0.22 goals better than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.75).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

A
Alloa

For 3.4 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

140747573115329223538291112714811481111A·MONH·EDIA·ANNA·HAMH·COVH·FALA·KELH·STIA·QUEH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.4

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8031221222313262422314434458651A·MONH·EDIA·ANNA·HAMH·COVH·FALA·KELH·STIA·QUEH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

2701611118159139101091391611101896827192422202225212714A·MONH·EDIA·ANNA·HAMH·COVH·FALA·KELH·STIA·QUEH·DUN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

For 4.3 · Against 6.4 · Total 10.7

ðŸšĐ Corners

20011956363423492237512562011975134101711A·EDIH·QUEH·FALA·COVH·ANNA·STIH·ALLH·HAMA·MONA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.0

ðŸŸĻ Cards

8011322242121126233112546328262A·EDIH·QUEH·FALA·COVH·ANNA·STIH·ALLH·HAMA·MONA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.6 · Against 9.4 · Total 20.0

⚠ïļ Fouls

320127181491388865816966131711619322216141325123017A·EDIH·QUEH·FALA·COVH·ANNA·STIH·ALLH·HAMA·MONA·QUE
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Alloa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.09.610.43.13.42.718.718.818.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (41)10.29.810.62.93.32.518.217.918.4
vs Weaker (9)8.98.89.04.04.04.021.321.720.7
% over line56%52%60%46%60%32%30%24%36%
% under line44%48%40%54%40%68%70%76%64%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.59.611.43.73.73.621.921.722.0
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (38)10.610.211.13.93.84.122.522.422.6
vs Weaker (12)10.27.612.02.83.22.619.818.820.4
% over line60%48%72%44%44%44%46%44%48%
% under line40%52%28%56%56%56%54%56%52%
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Montrose
10.7
Hamilton
10.7
Kelty Hearts
10.5
Falkirk
10.1
Alloa
10.0
Queen of Sth
9.7
Stirling
9.5
Annan Athletic
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.5
Cove Rangers
9.5

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Hamilton
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Montrose
4.0
Falkirk
3.9
Cove Rangers
3.8
Queen of Sth
3.7
Kelty Hearts
3.7
Edinburgh City
3.1
Alloa
3.1

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.7
Hamilton
21.9
Falkirk
21.9
Kelty Hearts
21.9
Stirling
21.0
Queen of Sth
20.6
Annan Athletic
20.3
Cove Rangers
19.9
Edinburgh City
19.5
Alloa
18.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
62.2%
Under 9.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
50.3%
Under 3.5
49.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
35.9%
Under 21.5
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D42W00D01L02L10W00D10W00D01LH·DUN06/05A·QUE05/08H·STI12/08A·KEL19/08H·FAL26/08H·COV02/09A·HAM16/09A·ANN23/09H·EDI30/09A·MON07/10
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.570.670.360.500.750.81
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.560.720.360.640.710.79
vs Weaker (5)0.600.400.330.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L00D00D10W00D00D21W13L11D20WA·QUE06/05A·MON05/08H·HAM12/08H·ALL19/08A·STI26/08H·ANN02/09A·COV16/09H·FAL23/09H·QUE30/09A·EDI07/10
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.470.530.330.400.600.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.440.640.380.460.500.83
vs Weaker (5)0.600.000.000.001.000.00
Clean sheet %67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L01L01L11D12L00D12L01L11D11DH·DUN06/05A·QUE05/08H·STI12/08A·KEL19/08H·FAL26/08H·COV02/09A·HAM16/09A·ANN23/09H·EDI30/09A·MON07/10
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.730.570.790.750.69
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.640.720.450.730.790.71
vs Weaker (5)0.800.801.001.000.500.50
Clean sheet %47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-202L20W02L11D01L11D01L02L20W21WA·QUE06/05A·MON05/08H·HAM12/08H·ALL19/08A·STI26/08H·ANN02/09A·COV16/09H·FAL23/09H·QUE30/09A·EDI07/10
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.931.001.000.730.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (25)0.880.961.081.080.670.83
vs Weaker (5)0.800.800.500.501.001.00
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls88.6%-------✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards83.2%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.578.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls78.5%-------✗ Miss
Over 8.5 corners73.7%-------✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards71.2%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

5 previous meetings
2
ALL wins
2
Draws
1
KH wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Alloa vs Kelty Hearts · H/A from ALL
DateH/AGameScore
19/08/23AKelty Hearts Vs ALL2-1
15/04/23AKelty Hearts Vs ALL0-1
31/12/22HALL Vs Kelty Hearts0-0
05/11/22AKelty Hearts Vs ALL1-1
06/08/22HALL Vs Kelty Hearts3-1

A
Alloa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23AMontrose Vs ALL2-1
30/09/23HALL Vs Edinburgh City1-1
23/09/23AAnnan Athletic Vs ALL1-1
16/09/23AHamilton Vs ALL2-1
02/09/23HALL Vs Cove Rangers1-0
26/08/23HALL Vs Falkirk1-4
19/08/23AKelty Hearts Vs ALL2-1
12/08/23HALL Vs Stirling0-1
05/08/23AQueen of Sth Vs ALL3-4
06/05/23HALL Vs Dunfermline0-2

Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
07/10/23AEdinburgh City Vs KH1-4
30/09/23HKH Vs Queen of Sth3-1
23/09/23HKH Vs Falkirk1-5
16/09/23ACove Rangers Vs KH2-2
02/09/23HKH Vs Annan Athletic1-1
26/08/23AStirling Vs KH1-0
19/08/23HKH Vs Alloa2-1
12/08/23HKH Vs Hamilton0-2
05/08/23AMontrose Vs KH0-2
06/05/23AQueen of Sth Vs KH4-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

A
Alloa
Scotland: League One
Recent: 2 Wins / 2 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDL1.48
HomeLLLWD1.68
AwayWLLDL1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %44%52%36%
AVG goals2.942.962.92
Over 1.5 %78%72%84%
Over 2.5 %54%56%52%
Over 3.5 %32%36%28%
Scored1.521.641.40
Conceded1.421.321.52
BTTS54%56%52%
Clean Sheet26%28%24%
Corners10.009.6010.40
Cards3.083.442.72
Kelty Hearts
Kelty Hearts
Scotland: League One
Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDLWW1.26
HomeLWDLW1.36
AwayLWLDW1.16
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%36%28%
AVG goals2.682.402.96
Over 1.5 %80%80%80%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %22%12%32%
Scored1.241.201.28
Conceded1.441.201.68
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet24%28%20%
Corners10.509.6411.36
Cards3.663.683.64

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FalkirkFalkirk3690
75%
2.5
9628+68
3.4
83%
72%
47%
11.4
78%
4.2
64%
21.9
42%
6
2132.70.8
-
2
H
Hamilton
3674
61%
2.1
7328+45
2.8
75%
56%
33%
10.1
64%
3.2
44%
19.9
33%
0
0002.00.8
-
3
A
Alloa
3656
44%
1.6
6055+5
3.2
81%
64%
36%
10.0
58%
3.7
56%
19.8
36%
0
0001.71.5
-
4MontroseMontrose3653
42%
1.5
5857+1
3.2
75%
56%
39%
10.0
53%
3.8
53%
20.6
36%
0
0001.61.6
-
5Cove RangersCove Rangers3649
39%
1.4
5863-5
3.4
78%
64%
53%
10.1
56%
2.9
33%
18.3
28%
0
0001.61.8
-
6Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3644
33%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
61%
44%
10.8
56%
3.7
42%
21.7
53%
1
1001.31.8
-
7
QO
Queen of Sth
3641
31%
1.1
4653-7
2.8
75%
50%
33%
10.1
58%
3.7
50%
21.9
53%
0
0001.31.5
-
8Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3639
25%
1.1
5568-13
3.4
97%
72%
42%
9.8
50%
4.4
69%
21.3
44%
0
0001.51.9
-
9StirlingStirling3639
28%
1.1
3958-19
2.7
67%
53%
36%
10.7
72%
3.9
53%
20.9
44%
0
0001.11.6
-
10Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3614
8%
0.4
3898-60
3.8
92%
75%
53%
10.2
61%
3.9
47%
21.6
53%
0
0001.12.7
-
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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