This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.37
1.07
1.07
1.31
1.62
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
1.17
1.72
0.86
1.71
1.36
1.73
vs Weaker (11)
1.27
0.91
1.33
0.50
1.20
1.40
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
74.4%
Under 1.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.0%
@ 1.79-4.2%
Under 2.5
52.0%
@ 1.95+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.2%
Under 3.5
73.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.0%
No
46.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.8%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
8.5%
1-0
8.3%
1-2
8.2%
2-1
8.1%
0-2
6.4%
2-0 â
6.2%
Alloa goals ↓
Kelty Hearts goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.7%
8.5%
6.4%
2.8%
0.9%
1
8.3%
14%
8.2%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.2%
8.1%
5.3%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.6%
3.5%
2.3%
1.0%
0.3%
4
0.8%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alloa goals (down), columns = Kelty Hearts goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Arbroath
1.78
Inverness CT
1.61
Cove Rangers
1.58
Queen of Sth
1.53
Stenhousemuir
1.47
Alloa
1.42
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Montrose
1.11
Annan Athletic
1.00
Dumbarton
0.97
Alloa is 0.19 points better than Kelty Hearts in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.22).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cove Rangers
1.72
Arbroath
1.61
Alloa
1.53
Dumbarton
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Inverness CT
1.25
Annan Athletic
1.14
Kelty Hearts
1.11
Montrose
1.11
Alloa is 0.42 goals better than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.11).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inverness CT
1.06
Queen of Sth
1.14
Arbroath
1.17
Cove Rangers
1.22
Stenhousemuir
1.25
Kelty Hearts
1.28
Alloa
1.31
Montrose
1.36
Dumbarton
1.83
Annan Athletic
1.89
Alloa is 0.03 goals worse than Kelty Hearts in terms of goals conceded per game (1.31 vs 1.28).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
A
Alloa
For 5.1 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.0 · Total 4.6
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.9 · Against 9.7 · Total 20.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Kelty Hearts
For 4.5 · Against 3.7 · Total 8.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.1 · Total 2.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 8.5 · Total 17.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
A
Alloa
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
10.2
10.4
3.8
3.7
4.0
19.6
20.0
19.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
10.7
10.7
10.7
3.5
3.3
3.8
18.9
19.3
18.6
vs Weaker (20)
9.7
9.4
9.9
4.3
4.3
4.3
20.7
21.1
20.3
% over line
62%
68%
56%
58%
52%
64%
34%
36%
32%
% under line
38%
32%
44%
42%
48%
36%
66%
64%
68%
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.7
10.9
3.0
2.9
3.1
20.9
20.5
21.2
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
10.6
10.1
11.1
2.9
2.8
2.9
21.5
21.2
21.8
vs Weaker (18)
9.8
9.2
10.6
3.4
3.3
3.6
19.9
19.7
20.1
% over line
51%
36%
65%
34%
33%
35%
44%
50%
39%
% under line
49%
64%
35%
66%
67%
65%
56%
50%
61%
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
11.2
Arbroath
11.1
Kelty Hearts
10.8
Alloa
10.3
Annan Athletic
10.0
Cove Rangers
10.0
Inverness CT
9.8
Montrose
9.8
Queen of Sth
9.8
Stenhousemuir
9.6
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.2
Queen of Sth
3.9
Alloa
3.8
Dumbarton
3.7
Montrose
3.7
Stenhousemuir
3.7
Arbroath
3.5
Kelty Hearts
3.3
Inverness CT
3.3
Cove Rangers
2.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Stenhousemuir
22.6
Queen of Sth
21.4
Annan Athletic
20.9
Kelty Hearts
20.8
Montrose
20.6
Arbroath
20.4
Alloa
19.6
Inverness CT
19.6
Dumbarton
19.0
Cove Rangers
18.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
56.3%
Under 9.5
43.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
50.7%
Under 3.5
49.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
41.2%
Under 21.5
58.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
A
Alloa
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.33
0.67
0.87
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.59
0.00
0.62
0.78
0.56
vs Weaker (13)
0.85
0.54
0.71
0.71
1.00
0.33
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.36
0.36
0.69
0.69
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.44
0.72
0.14
0.71
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (11)
0.73
0.27
0.67
0.00
0.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
A
Alloa
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.60
0.73
0.47
0.87
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.65
0.53
0.38
0.25
0.89
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.69
1.14
0.71
0.83
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Kelty Hearts) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Kelty Hearts
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.83
0.71
0.71
0.62
0.94
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (18)
0.72
1.00
0.71
1.00
0.73
1.00
vs Weaker (11)
0.55
0.64
0.67
0.50
0.40
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kelty Hearts over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 25.5 fouls
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 5.5 cards
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 3.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
71.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League One 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kelty Hearts
Arbroath
Inverness CT
Cove Rangers
Stenhousemuir
Montrose
Annan Athletic
Dumbarton