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Alloa vs Montrose Result & Analysis

Date: 13/04/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 0-0
A
Alloa
Vs
35%
27%
38%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Montrose
Montrose
Scotland: League One
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Alloa win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied 47.9% · @ 1.92
Edge
-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.0%
Avg Implied 25.1% · @ 3.66
Edge
+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Montrose win✗ Miss
37.7%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.41
Edge
+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

A
Alloa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-521W41W21W34L30W52W12L02L11D51WH·ANN13/02H·COV17/02A·HAM24/02A·MON02/03H·KEL09/03A·EDI16/03A·KEL19/03H·QUE23/03H·ANN30/03A·STI06/04
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
1.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.531.531.271.871.80
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.421.741.501.501.332.00
vs Weaker (11)2.181.181.600.802.671.50
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MontroseMontrose

Last 10 – goals for & against
70-720W30W42W03L32W43W41W11D01L17LA·STI06/02H·EDI10/02H·KEL17/02A·FAL20/02A·QUE24/02H·ALL02/03A·COV09/03H·ANN16/03A·STI23/03H·FAL30/03
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.731.671.601.931.871.40
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.532.111.442.671.601.60
vs Weaker (11)2.090.911.830.832.401.00
Clean sheet %17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%7%014%124%222%316%49%57%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
79.8%
Under 1.5
20.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.63-1.9%
Under 2.5
44.5%
@ 2.20+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
33.2%
Under 3.5
66.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
59.8%
No
40.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.7%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
8.2%
0-1
6.9%
1-0
6.7%
0-0 ✓
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
0-2
6.0%
Alloa goals ↓
Montrose goals →
01234
06.6%6.9%6.0%3.0%1.1%
16.7%13%8.5%4.2%1.6%
25.6%8.2%6.1%3.0%1.1%
32.6%3.9%2.9%1.4%0.5%
40.9%1.4%1.0%0.5%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alloa goals (down), columns = Montrose goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Alloa is 0.08 points better than Montrose in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.47).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Alloa is 0.06 goals better than Montrose in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.61).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Alloa is 0.06 goals better than Montrose in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.58).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

A
Alloa

For 6.0 · Against 4.8 · Total 10.8

ðŸšĐ Corners

1602623778464925288865685141210117161411A·STIH·ANNH·QUEA·KELA·EDIH·KELA·MONA·HAMH·COVH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.0 · Total 2.3

ðŸŸĻ Cards

5021221223111323203224025A·STIH·ANNH·QUEA·KELA·EDIH·KELA·MONA·HAMH·COVH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.2 · Against 8.0 · Total 16.2

⚠ïļ Fouls

23011511910101586133748952511101620202319101214721A·STIH·ANNH·QUEA·KELA·EDIH·KELA·MONA·HAMH·COVH·ANN
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

MontroseMontrose

For 4.5 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

1304655582425534573813110101367891094H·FALA·STIH·ANNA·COVH·ALLA·QUEA·FALH·KELH·EDIA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

70211234111311121111223372423224H·FALA·STIH·ANNA·COVH·ALLA·QUEA·FALH·KELH·EDIA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.0 · Against 8.2 · Total 19.2

⚠ïļ Fouls

27071387136131184131413131471239420151924122726211513H·FALA·STIH·ANNA·COVH·ALLA·QUEA·FALH·KELH·EDIA·STI
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Alloa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.79.79.83.33.33.219.018.419.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (37)10.19.910.33.13.13.018.518.119.0
vs Weaker (13)8.89.38.23.83.93.820.319.121.7
% over line54%58%50%46%50%42%28%15%42%
% under line46%42%50%54%50%58%72%85%58%
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MontroseMontrose

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.210.79.64.24.44.021.522.220.9
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (37)10.310.610.14.04.03.921.822.121.5
vs Weaker (13)9.811.18.25.05.64.320.822.319.2
% over line54%64%44%60%64%56%44%48%40%
% under line46%36%56%40%36%44%56%52%60%
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.4
Hamilton
10.5
Falkirk
10.4
Stirling
10.3
Montrose
10.2
Queen of Sth
10.0
Cove Rangers
9.9
Edinburgh City
9.8
Annan Athletic
9.8
Alloa
9.7

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.6
Montrose
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Stirling
3.9
Queen of Sth
3.7
Hamilton
3.6
Kelty Hearts
3.5
Edinburgh City
3.5
Alloa
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Falkirk
21.8
Kelty Hearts
21.8
Montrose
21.5
Annan Athletic
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.5
Hamilton
20.5
Stirling
20.0
Edinburgh City
19.8
Alloa
19.0
Cove Rangers
18.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.1%
Under 9.5
48.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.9%
Under 3.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
30.2%
Under 21.5
69.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W10W00D22D10W12L00D01L11D30WH·ANN13/02H·COV17/02A·HAM24/02A·MON02/03H·KEL09/03A·EDI16/03A·KEL19/03H·QUE23/03H·ANN30/03A·STI06/04
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.470.400.730.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.370.740.400.500.331.00
vs Weaker (11)1.000.550.600.201.330.83
Clean sheet %53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MontroseMontrose

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W30W20W02L01L22D30W01L00D13LA·STI06/02H·EDI10/02H·KEL17/02A·FAL20/02A·QUE24/02H·ALL02/03A·COV09/03H·ANN16/03A·STI23/03H·FAL30/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.900.770.931.000.870.53
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.681.000.781.440.600.60
vs Weaker (11)1.270.361.170.331.400.40
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D31W21W12L20W40W12L01L00D21WH·ANN13/02H·COV17/02A·HAM24/02A·MON02/03H·KEL09/03A·EDI16/03A·KEL19/03H·QUE23/03H·ANN30/03A·STI06/04
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.871.070.871.130.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)1.051.001.101.001.001.00
vs Weaker (11)1.180.641.000.601.330.67
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Montrose) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

MontroseMontrose

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W00D22D01L31W21W11D10W01L04LA·STI06/02H·EDI10/02H·KEL17/02A·FAL20/02A·QUE24/02H·ALL02/03A·COV09/03H·ANN16/03A·STI23/03H·FAL30/03
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.900.670.931.000.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (19)0.841.110.671.221.001.00
vs Weaker (11)0.820.550.670.501.000.60
Clean sheet %43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Montrose over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls91.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards86.6%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls82.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.579.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards73.8%-------✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners72.4%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
4
ALL wins
2
Draws
2
MON wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Alloa vs Montrose · H/A from ALL
DateH/AGameScore
02/03/24AMontrose Vs ALL4-3
23/12/23HALL Vs Montrose2-2
07/10/23AMontrose Vs ALL2-1
29/04/23AMontrose Vs ALL0-4
25/02/23HALL Vs Montrose1-0
03/12/22AMontrose Vs ALL0-0
17/09/22HALL Vs Montrose2-1
30/04/22HALL Vs Montrose4-1

A
Alloa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
06/04/24AStirling Vs ALL1-5
30/03/24HALL Vs Annan Athletic1-1
23/03/24HALL Vs Queen of Sth0-2
19/03/24AKelty Hearts Vs ALL2-1
16/03/24AEdinburgh City Vs ALL2-5
09/03/24HALL Vs Kelty Hearts3-0
02/03/24AMontrose Vs ALL4-3
24/02/24AHamilton Vs ALL1-2
17/02/24HALL Vs Cove Rangers4-1
13/02/24HALL Vs Annan Athletic2-1

MontroseMontrose

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/03/24HMON Vs Falkirk1-7
23/03/24AStirling Vs MON1-0
16/03/24HMON Vs Annan Athletic1-1
09/03/24ACove Rangers Vs MON1-4
02/03/24HMON Vs Alloa4-3
24/02/24AQueen of Sth Vs MON2-3
20/02/24AFalkirk Vs MON3-0
17/02/24HMON Vs Kelty Hearts4-2
10/02/24HMON Vs Edinburgh City3-0
06/02/24AStirling Vs MON0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

A
Alloa
Scotland: League One
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLLDW1.60
HomeWWWLD1.62
AwayWLWLW1.58
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %48%46%50%
AVG goals2.922.503.38
Over 1.5 %78%65%92%
Over 2.5 %56%46%67%
Over 3.5 %30%31%29%
Scored1.521.271.79
Conceded1.401.231.58
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet26%31%21%
Corners9.749.739.75
Cards3.263.313.21
Montrose
Montrose
Scotland: League One
Recent: 6 Wins / 1 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDLL1.32
HomeWWWDL1.32
AwayWLWWL1.32
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%36%36%
AVG goals3.303.603.00
Over 1.5 %80%84%76%
Over 2.5 %62%64%60%
Over 3.5 %40%40%40%
Scored1.541.561.52
Conceded1.762.041.48
BTTS60%60%60%
Clean Sheet16%20%12%
Corners10.1810.729.64
Cards4.244.444.04

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FalkirkFalkirk3690
75%
2.5
9628+68
3.4
83%
72%
47%
11.4
78%
4.2
64%
21.9
42%
6
2132.70.8
-
2
H
Hamilton
3674
61%
2.1
7328+45
2.8
75%
56%
33%
10.1
64%
3.2
44%
19.9
33%
0
0002.00.8
-
3
A
Alloa
3656
44%
1.6
6055+5
3.2
81%
64%
36%
10.0
58%
3.7
56%
19.8
36%
0
0001.71.5
-
4MontroseMontrose3653
42%
1.5
5857+1
3.2
75%
56%
39%
10.0
53%
3.8
53%
20.6
36%
0
0001.61.6
-
5Cove RangersCove Rangers3649
39%
1.4
5863-5
3.4
78%
64%
53%
10.1
56%
2.9
33%
18.3
28%
0
0001.61.8
-
6Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3644
33%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
61%
44%
10.8
56%
3.7
42%
21.7
53%
1
1001.31.8
-
7
QO
Queen of Sth
3641
31%
1.1
4653-7
2.8
75%
50%
33%
10.1
58%
3.7
50%
21.9
53%
0
0001.31.5
-
8Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3639
25%
1.1
5568-13
3.4
97%
72%
42%
9.8
50%
4.4
69%
21.3
44%
0
0001.51.9
-
9StirlingStirling3639
28%
1.1
3958-19
2.7
67%
53%
36%
10.7
72%
3.9
53%
20.9
44%
0
0001.11.6
-
10Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3614
8%
0.4
3898-60
3.8
92%
75%
53%
10.2
61%
3.9
47%
21.6
53%
0
0001.12.7
-
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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