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Alloa vs Queen of Sth Result & Analysis

Date: 23/03/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 0-2
A
Alloa
Vs
44%
28%
28%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
QO
Queen of Sth
Scotland: League One
Referee: -

ðŸŽŊ 1. Model Analysis

Alloa win✗ Miss
44.1%
Avg Implied 50.4% · @ 1.83
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.8%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.72
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth win✓ Hit
28.1%
Avg Implied 24.8% · @ 3.72
Edge
+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš― 2. Goal Analysis

A
Alloa

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L32W10W21W41W21W34L30W52W12LH·FAL27/01A·ANN03/02H·STI10/02H·ANN13/02H·COV17/02A·HAM24/02A·MON02/03H·KEL09/03A·EDI16/03A·KEL19/03
Avg total
4.2
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.631.601.471.271.801.93
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.551.801.501.501.602.10
vs Weaker (10)1.801.201.400.802.201.60
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QO
Queen of Sth

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L11D20W02L00D11D23L22D12L14LA·FAL06/01H·ALL13/01A·COV27/01H·HAM03/02A·KEL10/02A·EDI17/02H·MON24/02H·STI02/03A·ANN09/03H·FAL16/03
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.371.631.621.941.071.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.251.901.452.271.001.44
vs Weaker (10)1.601.102.001.201.201.00
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.68-5.1%
Under 2.5
49.4%
@ 2.11+5.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
55.2%
No
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.3%
2-1
9.2%
1-0
9.1%
0-0
7.9%
2-0
7.8%
1-2
7.1%
0-1
6.7%
2-2
5.4%
Alloa goals ↓
Queen of Sth goals →
01234
07.9%6.7%4.7%1.8%0.5%
19.1%13%7.1%2.8%0.8%
27.8%9.2%5.4%2.1%0.6%
34.0%4.7%2.7%1.1%0.3%
41.5%1.8%1.0%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Alloa goals (down), columns = Queen of Sth goals (across).

💊 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Alloa is 0.42 points better than Queen of Sth in terms of average points per game (1.56 vs 1.14).

⚔ïļ Attack

Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Alloa is 0.39 goals better than Queen of Sth in terms of goals scored per game (1.67 vs 1.28).

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Alloa is 0.06 goals worse than Queen of Sth in terms of goals conceded per game (1.53 vs 1.47).

⏱ïļ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

ðŸŽē 4. Props Analysis

A
Alloa

For 6.3 · Against 5.1 · Total 11.4

ðŸšĐ Corners

16084649252888656873537121011716141115810A·KELA·EDIH·KELA·MONA·HAMH·COVH·ANNH·STIA·ANNH·FAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.2

ðŸŸĻ Cards

7021223111321343123224025473A·KELA·EDIH·KELA·MONA·HAMH·COVH·ANNH·STIA·ANNH·FAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.9 · Against 8.5 · Total 17.4

⚠ïļ Fouls

270158613374895251110121015121272319101214721222719A·KELA·EDIH·KELA·MONA·HAMH·COVH·ANNH·STIA·ANNH·FAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

QO
Queen of Sth

For 4.2 · Against 5.4 · Total 9.6

ðŸšĐ Corners

15055510773544682664423101514881481063H·FALA·ANNH·STIH·MONA·EDIA·KELH·HAMA·COVH·ALLA·FAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 1.7 · Total 3.8

ðŸŸĻ Cards

804124411322312122125282551343H·FALA·ANNH·STIH·MONA·EDIA·KELH·HAMA·COVH·ALLA·FAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 9.3 · Total 21.1

⚠ïļ Fouls

28011995121314131510151311412910109720142527252815212016H·FALA·ANNH·STIH·MONA·EDIA·KELH·HAMA·COVH·ALLA·FAL
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total

A
Alloa

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)9.89.89.83.33.53.119.018.219.6
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (38)9.99.710.23.13.33.018.618.019.1
vs Weaker (12)9.210.08.53.94.23.720.219.021.3
% over line56%58%54%48%54%42%30%17%42%
% under line44%42%46%52%46%58%70%83%58%
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QO
Queen of Sth

SplitCornersCardsFouls
TotHmeAwyTotHmeAwyTotHmeAwy
Overall (50)10.09.011.13.83.83.820.220.719.7
vs Stronger (0)---------
vs Similar (38)10.09.210.93.53.43.619.519.919.1
vs Weaker (12)10.18.311.84.85.24.522.623.721.5
% over line56%42%71%56%58%54%38%35%42%
% under line44%58%29%44%42%46%62%65%58%
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

ðŸšĐ Total Corners

Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.5
Hamilton
10.7
Falkirk
10.5
Stirling
10.4
Montrose
10.1
Annan Athletic
10.0
Queen of Sth
10.0
Edinburgh City
9.8
Cove Rangers
9.8
Alloa
9.8

ðŸŸĻ Total Cards

Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.5
Montrose
4.3
Falkirk
4.2
Stirling
3.9
Queen of Sth
3.8
Hamilton
3.7
Kelty Hearts
3.5
Edinburgh City
3.4
Alloa
3.3
Cove Rangers
3.2

⚠ïļ Total Fouls

Match total fouls / game
Falkirk
22.0
Montrose
21.7
Kelty Hearts
21.6
Hamilton
20.8
Stirling
20.6
Queen of Sth
20.2
Annan Athletic
20.2
Edinburgh City
19.6
Cove Rangers
19.0
Alloa
19.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
60.9%
Under 9.5
39.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
49.8%
Under 3.5
50.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
29.1%
Under 21.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

ðŸĨ… 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖ïļ 7. Handicap

⏱ïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L21W00D10W10W00D22D10W12L00DH·FAL27/01A·ANN03/02H·STI10/02H·ANN13/02H·COV17/02A·HAM24/02A·MON02/03H·KEL09/03A·EDI16/03A·KEL19/03
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.670.400.270.801.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.550.750.400.400.701.10
vs Weaker (10)0.700.500.400.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QO
Queen of Sth

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-200D11D10W00D00D00D10W11D02L00DA·FAL06/01H·ALL13/01A·COV27/01H·HAM03/02A·KEL10/02A·EDI17/02H·MON24/02H·STI02/03A·ANN09/03H·FAL16/03
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.730.750.880.640.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.850.750.821.000.890.44
vs Weaker (10)0.400.700.600.600.200.80
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱ïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

A
Alloa

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L11D10W11D31W21W12L20W40W12LH·FAL27/01A·ANN03/02H·STI10/02H·ANN13/02H·COV17/02A·HAM24/02A·MON02/03H·KEL09/03A·EDI16/03A·KEL19/03
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.931.071.001.000.87
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)1.001.051.101.100.901.00
vs Weaker (10)1.100.701.000.801.200.60
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Queen of Sth) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

QO
Queen of Sth

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-401L00D10W02L00D11D13L11D10W14LA·FAL06/01H·ALL13/01A·COV27/01H·HAM03/02A·KEL10/02A·EDI17/02H·MON24/02H·STI02/03A·ANN09/03H·FAL16/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.670.900.881.060.430.71
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (20)0.401.150.641.270.111.00
vs Weaker (10)1.200.401.400.601.000.20
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Alloa) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸĨ… 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Alloa over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Alloa over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Queen of Sth over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

ðŸ”Ĩ 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 25.5 fouls92.0%-------✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls83.7%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards83.5%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners72.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.5%-------✓ Hit
Under 21.5 fouls70.9%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards70.8%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔ïļ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸ›Ąïļ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

ðŸĪ 15. Games History

H2H record

8 previous meetings
5
ALL wins
2
Draws
1
QOS wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Alloa vs Queen of Sth · H/A from ALL
DateH/AGameScore
13/01/24AQueen of Sth Vs ALL1-1
11/11/23HALL Vs Queen of Sth1-0
05/08/23AQueen of Sth Vs ALL3-4
08/04/23HALL Vs Queen of Sth1-2
07/01/23AQueen of Sth Vs ALL1-2
12/11/22HALL Vs Queen of Sth5-1
01/10/22AQueen of Sth Vs ALL1-1
13/03/21AQueen of Sth Vs ALL2-3

A
Alloa

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/03/24AKelty Hearts Vs ALL2-1
16/03/24AEdinburgh City Vs ALL2-5
09/03/24HALL Vs Kelty Hearts3-0
02/03/24AMontrose Vs ALL4-3
24/02/24AHamilton Vs ALL1-2
17/02/24HALL Vs Cove Rangers4-1
13/02/24HALL Vs Annan Athletic2-1
10/02/24HALL Vs Stirling1-0
03/02/24AAnnan Athletic Vs ALL2-3
27/01/24HALL Vs Falkirk0-5

QO
Queen of Sth

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
16/03/24HQOS Vs Falkirk1-4
09/03/24AAnnan Athletic Vs QOS2-1
02/03/24HQOS Vs Stirling2-2
24/02/24HQOS Vs Montrose2-3
17/02/24AEdinburgh City Vs QOS1-1
10/02/24AKelty Hearts Vs QOS0-0
03/02/24HQOS Vs Hamilton0-2
27/01/24ACove Rangers Vs QOS0-2
13/01/24HQOS Vs Alloa1-1
06/01/24AFalkirk Vs QOS1-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

A
Alloa
Scotland: League One
Recent: 7 Wins / 0 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWWL1.56
HomeLWWWW1.71
AwayWWLWL1.42
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.942.543.31
Over 1.5 %76%62%88%
Over 2.5 %58%50%65%
Over 3.5 %32%33%31%
Scored1.501.331.65
Conceded1.441.211.65
BTTS54%50%58%
Clean Sheet28%33%23%
Corners9.789.759.81
Cards3.303.503.12
QO
Queen of Sth
Scotland: League One
Recent: 1 Wins / 4 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLDLL1.30
HomeDLLDL1.27
AwayLWDDL1.33
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%38%38%
AVG goals3.063.272.83
Over 1.5 %78%81%75%
Over 2.5 %60%65%54%
Over 3.5 %40%46%33%
Scored1.441.621.25
Conceded1.621.651.58
BTTS64%69%58%
Clean Sheet14%15%12%
Corners10.008.9611.12
Cards3.803.813.79

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value ₮mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1FalkirkFalkirk3690
75%
2.5
9628+68
3.4
83%
72%
47%
11.4
78%
4.2
64%
21.9
42%
6
2132.70.8
-
2
H
Hamilton
3674
61%
2.1
7328+45
2.8
75%
56%
33%
10.1
64%
3.2
44%
19.9
33%
0
0002.00.8
-
3
A
Alloa
3656
44%
1.6
6055+5
3.2
81%
64%
36%
10.0
58%
3.7
56%
19.8
36%
0
0001.71.5
-
4MontroseMontrose3653
42%
1.5
5857+1
3.2
75%
56%
39%
10.0
53%
3.8
53%
20.6
36%
0
0001.61.6
-
5Cove RangersCove Rangers3649
39%
1.4
5863-5
3.4
78%
64%
53%
10.1
56%
2.9
33%
18.3
28%
0
0001.61.8
-
6Kelty HeartsKelty Hearts3644
33%
1.2
4863-15
3.1
78%
61%
44%
10.8
56%
3.7
42%
21.7
53%
1
1001.31.8
-
7
QO
Queen of Sth
3641
31%
1.1
4653-7
2.8
75%
50%
33%
10.1
58%
3.7
50%
21.9
53%
0
0001.31.5
-
8Annan AthleticAnnan Athletic3639
25%
1.1
5568-13
3.4
97%
72%
42%
9.8
50%
4.4
69%
21.3
44%
0
0001.51.9
-
9StirlingStirling3639
28%
1.1
3958-19
2.7
67%
53%
36%
10.7
72%
3.9
53%
20.9
44%
0
0001.11.6
-
10Edinburgh CityEdinburgh City3614
8%
0.4
3898-60
3.8
92%
75%
53%
10.2
61%
3.9
47%
21.6
53%
0
0001.12.7
-
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →

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