Almeria’s recent slump of two straight defeats is tempered by a solid home record, scoring 2.2 goals and conceding 1.7 against similar opposition, while Cadiz struggles on the road, averaging only 1.13 goals scored and 1.93 conceded. The model therefore names a home win as the clear favourite, assigning a 66% chance to Almeria’s victory. The expected total goals hover at 3.8, with the most likely total being three, and the single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Almeria, a 9.2% probability. The draw sits at 19% and the away win at 15%. Suggested selections include Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 96.6% with a 4% edge, Away under 3.5 goals at 96.5%, Under 7.5 at 96.2%, Home +2 handicap at 93.8%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.1% with a 3% edge, Home over 0.5 goals at 92.2% with an 8% edge, and Home under 2.5 HT goals at 91.5% with a 2% edge. All probabilities are expressed as percentages.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Almeria win
65.8%
Avg Implied 61.9% · @ 1.50
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Dafabet
1.55
Betano
1.55
10Bet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
1xBet
1.51
Draw
18.8%
Avg Implied 22.3% · @ 4.15
Edge
-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.42
Pinnacle
4.34
Marathonbet
4.30
Dafabet
4.30
Bet365
4.20
Cadiz win
15.4%
Avg Implied 15.8% · @ 5.86
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
6.43
Marathonbet
6.25
Pinnacle
6.13
Unibet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Almeria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.47
2.60
1.40
1.00
1.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.50
1.68
2.20
1.70
0.92
1.67
vs Weaker (8)
2.62
0.88
3.40
0.80
1.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Cadiz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cadiz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.73
1.00
1.53
1.13
1.93
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
1.07
1.73
1.00
1.53
1.13
1.93
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
13% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
89.7%
@ 1.21+12.6%
Under 1.5
10.3%
@ 4.06-12.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
Under
Marathonbet
4.15
1xBet
4.15
BetVictor
4.10
Unibet
4.10
Betano
4.00
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
72.5%
@ 1.72+17.6%
Under 2.5
27.5%
@ 2.09-17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
Under
1xBet
2.18
Marathonbet
2.14
Betano
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Betfair
2.10
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
51.9%
@ 2.75+18.0%
Under 3.5
48.1%
@ 1.41-18.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.91
BetVictor
2.88
Betano
2.85
10Bet
2.80
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.45
10Bet
1.42
Unibet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.41
Marathonbet
1.40
Both teams to score
Yes
65.4%
@ 1.78+13.6%
No
34.6%
@ 1.92-13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
William Hil
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Betano
1.80
Unibet
1.79
BetVictor
1.78
No
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.94
10Bet
1.93
Marathonbet
1.92
BetVictor
1.91
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
9.2%@ 7.22+3.1%
1-1
7.9%@ 7.29+1.9%
3-1
7.8%@ 10.71+3.7%
2-0
7.6%@ 6.85+1.2%
3-0
6.5%@ 10.13+2.1%
2-2
5.5%@ 14.83+2.6%
1-0
5.2%@ 6.63-1.4%
4-1
5.0%@ 20.30+2.8%
Almeria goals ↓
Cadiz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.0%
2.1%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
1
5.2%
7.9%
4.3%
1.7%
0.5%
2
7.6%
9.2%
5.5%
2.2%
0.7%
3
6.5%
7.8%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
4
4.1%
5.0%
3.0%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Almeria goals (down), columns = Cadiz goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Girona
1.96
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Mallorca
1.70
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
Oviedo
1.58
Cordoba
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Tenerife
1.34
Sabadell
1.16
Granada CF
1.14
Celta de Vigo II
1.14
Eldense
1.13
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Valladolid
1.10
Leganes
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Almeria is 0.69 points better than Cadiz in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.02).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Girona
1.87
Almeria
1.87
Castellón
1.66
Mallorca
1.62
Oviedo
1.51
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Tenerife
1.28
Eibar
1.24
Real Sociedad II
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Sabadell
1.10
Celta de Vigo II
1.09
Eldense
1.08
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Cadiz
0.98
Almeria is 0.89 goals better than Cadiz in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 0.98).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Girona
0.92
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Mallorca
1.06
Oviedo
1.14
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
FC Andorra
1.29
Sporting Gijon
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Tenerife
1.35
Valladolid
1.36
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Sabadell
1.56
Celta de Vigo II
1.58
Eldense
1.59
Almeria is 0.03 goals worse than Cadiz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.45).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Almeria
52%
Leganes
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Eibar
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Albacete
42%
Almeria is 6.3 percentage points better than Cadiz in terms of average possession (52% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Almeria
For 4.6 · Against 5.4 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.1 · Against 12.5 · Total 25.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Cadiz
For 3.7 · Against 4.6 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 5.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 12.3 · Total 24.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almeria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.8
8.8
5.5
5.6
5.4
26.7
26.8
26.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (35)
9.3
9.4
9.1
6.1
6.1
6.0
27.1
27.4
26.8
vs Weaker (15)
9.2
10.8
7.9
4.1
4.0
4.2
25.8
25.0
26.4
% over line
50%
57%
44%
76%
87%
67%
90%
87%
92%
% under line
50%
43%
56%
24%
13%
33%
10%
13%
8%
This opponent (Cadiz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cadiz
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.9
8.9
4.6
5.2
4.0
25.5
26.0
25.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (48)
9.4
9.9
8.9
4.8
5.2
4.3
25.5
26.0
25.0
vs Weaker (2)
10.0
-
10.0
0.5
-
0.5
25.0
-
25.0
% over line
46%
50%
42%
62%
75%
50%
81%
88%
75%
% under line
54%
50%
58%
38%
25%
50%
19%
12%
25%
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.8
Cordoba
10.6
Mallorca
10.1
Castellón
10.0
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Cadiz
9.5
Almeria
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Real Sociedad II
9.4
Eibar
9.3
Eldense
9.3
Oviedo
9.3
Girona
9.2
Granada CF
9.2
Tenerife
9.1
Valladolid
9.1
FC Andorra
8.9
AD Ceuta FC
8.8
Sabadell
8.7
Burgos
8.5
Las Palmas
8.1
Celta de Vigo II
7.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.9
Valladolid
5.7
Celta de Vigo II
5.7
Cordoba
5.6
Burgos
5.6
Almeria
5.6
Granada CF
5.5
FC Andorra
5.4
Sporting Gijon
5.2
Eibar
5.2
AD Ceuta FC
5.2
Cadiz
5.1
Leganes
5.0
Tenerife
4.8
Sabadell
4.7
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.5
Girona
4.5
Eldense
4.4
Mallorca
4.4
Oviedo
4.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cordoba
29.9
Real Sociedad II
28.8
Valladolid
28.6
Celta de Vigo II
28.3
Castellón
28.1
AD Ceuta FC
27.6
Las Palmas
27.6
FC Andorra
27.6
Sabadell
27.6
Granada CF
27.4
Tenerife
27.1
Almeria
26.6
Burgos
26.5
Leganes
26.0
Cadiz
25.6
Eibar
25.5
Girona
25.4
Oviedo
25.1
Eldense
24.4
Mallorca
24.3
Sporting Gijon
22.6
Albacete
21.9
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.1%
@ 1.89-5.0%
Under 9.5
55.9%
@ 1.82+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.95
Betano
1.93
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Under
Unibet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.84
Betano
1.82
10Bet
1.80
Bet365
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
75.0%
Under 3.5
25.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.2%
Under 21.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Almeria or Draw
84.6%
Avg Implied 84.0% · @ 1.11
Edge
+0.5%
66%
19%
15%
covers Almeria + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
Almeria or Cadiz
81.2%
Avg Implied 78.2% · @ 1.20
Edge
+3.0%
66%
19%
15%
covers Almeria + Cadiz
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.22
SBO
1.19
Draw or Cadiz
34.2%
Avg Implied 37.8% · @ 2.48
Edge
-3.6%
66%
19%
15%
covers Draw + Cadiz
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.59
Marathonbet
2.56
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
Betano
2.50
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Almeria over/under 0.5
Over
92.2%
@ 1.10+8.0%
Under
7.8%
@ 5.86-8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Under
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.00
Unibet
5.80
1xBet
5.80
BetVictor
5.75
Almeria over/under 1.5
Over
72.4%
@ 1.57+13.3%
Under
27.6%
@ 2.27-13.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Betfair
1.57
Under
Pinnacle
2.36
Marathonbet
2.36
Unibet
2.32
BetVictor
2.25
Betfair
2.25
Almeria over/under 2.5
Over
47.0%
@ 2.80+13.9%
Under
53.0%
@ 1.39-13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Betfair
2.88
BetVictor
2.88
10Bet
2.80
Under
Marathonbet
1.43
Betano
1.42
Bet365
1.40
Unibet
1.40
Pinnacle
1.39
Almeria over/under 3.5
Over
25.4%
@ 5.66+9.0%
Under
74.6%
@ 1.11-9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.10
Betfair
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Marathonbet
5.55
Betano
5.30
Under
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Cadiz over/under 0.5
Over
70.1%
@ 1.59+11.8%
Under
29.9%
@ 2.22-11.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
Under
Betano
2.27
10Bet
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Bet365
2.25
Pinnacle
2.24
Cadiz over/under 1.5
Over
34.0%
@ 3.91+10.3%
Under
66.0%
@ 1.21-10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.21
Marathonbet
4.05
Bet365
4.00
BetVictor
4.00
Betfair
4.00
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Cadiz over/under 2.5
Over
12.2%
@ 11.24+3.7%
Under
87.8%
@ 1.04-3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
13.00
Marathonbet
12.25
1xBet
12.20
Betfair
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
Cadiz over/under 3.5
Over
3.4%
@ 34.00-96.6%
Under
96.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Almeria, so a minus line means Almeria give that many goals of a start and Cadiz receive them. At -1, Almeria must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Almeria win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Almeria)
Almeria -2
26.2%
@ 4.33+5.6%
Draw -2
19.1%
@ 4.34-1.5%
Cadiz +2
54.7%
@ 1.52-4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.50
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Marathonbet
4.20
Unibet
3.95
Draw
Marathonbet
4.60
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.33
10Bet
4.33
Unibet
3.95
Away
Unibet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.52
10Bet
1.50
Betfair
1.50
Bet365
1.50
Handicap -1 (Almeria)
Almeria -1
45.3%
@ 2.33+6.7%
Draw -1
20.5%
@ 3.52-5.1%
Cadiz +1
34.2%
@ 2.51-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.40
Betfair
2.30
Marathonbet
2.27
Unibet
2.18
Draw
Bet365
3.75
Marathonbet
3.56
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.40
10Bet
3.40
Away
Marathonbet
2.56
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.50
Bet365
2.50
10Bet
2.45
Handicap +1 (Almeria)
Almeria +1
84.6%
@ 1.11+4.6%
Draw +1
9.3%
@ 6.83-3.7%
Cadiz -1
6.1%
@ 12.57-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
Draw
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Unibet
7.00
Marathonbet
4.80
Away
Betfair
15.00
Bet365
15.00
Unibet
13.00
Marathonbet
7.30
Handicap +2 (Almeria)
Almeria +2
93.9%
@ 1.02+0.6%
Draw +2
4.3%
@ 19.00-0.7%
Cadiz -2
1.9%
@ 54.00+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
21.00
Bet365
17.00
Away
Betfair
67.00
Bet365
41.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Almeria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.57
1.20
0.40
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.68
0.70
0.50
0.58
0.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.62
0.25
2.20
0.20
0.67
0.33
Clean sheet %
53% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Cadiz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cadiz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.33
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.40
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.33
1.13
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.4%
@ 1.32+2.8%
Under 0.5
26.6%
@ 3.18-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
BetVictor
3.25
William Hil
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
38.7%
@ 2.50+1.5%
Under 1.5
61.3%
@ 1.48-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.63
Betfair
2.63
Betano
2.62
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.47
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Unibet
1.49
BetVictor
1.49
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
16.1%
@ 6.09+0.9%
Under 2.5
83.9%
@ 1.10-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Bet365
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Betfair
6.00
Betano
5.90
Under
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Almeria over/under 0.5 HT
Over
56.7%
@ 1.59-1.7%
Under
43.3%
@ 2.24+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.62
Pinnacle
1.58
10Bet
1.57
Unibet
1.53
Under
Pinnacle
2.32
Unibet
2.30
10Bet
2.25
1xBet
2.16
Betano
2.15
Almeria over/under 1.5 HT
Over
23.5%
@ 3.90-0.2%
Under
76.5%
@ 1.21+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.94
Betano
3.90
10Bet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Almeria over/under 2.5 HT
Over
9.0%
@ 9.25-1.0%
Under
91.0%
@ 1.03+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
9.50
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Cadiz over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.8%
@ 2.86+1.4%
Under
66.2%
@ 1.37-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.09
10Bet
2.88
Unibet
2.80
Betano
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Under
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.37
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Cadiz over/under 1.5 HT
Over
7.0%
@ 9.50-2.8%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.03+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
10.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
Cadiz over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Almeria
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
1.40
1.00
0.40
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.86
1.00
1.50
1.20
0.33
0.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
0.62
1.20
0.60
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
37% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Cadiz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Cadiz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (30)
0.67
0.80
0.53
0.80
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
83.4%
@ 1.19+4.9%
Under 0.5
16.6%
@ 4.34-4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
Under
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Betano
4.35
Bet365
4.33
William Hil
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.6%
@ 1.91+3.8%
Under 1.5
47.4%
@ 1.82-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.00
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.91
Unibet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
Betano
1.87
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
27.8%
@ 3.91+4.0%
Under 2.5
72.2%
@ 1.22-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.33
Bet365
4.00
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Almeria over/under 0.5 2H
Over
68.5%
@ 1.41+2.6%
Under
31.5%
@ 2.73-2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.43
10Bet
1.40
Betano
1.40
Under
Betano
2.80
10Bet
2.75
1xBet
2.65
Almeria over/under 1.5 2H
Over
32.3%
@ 2.86-0.1%
Under
67.7%
@ 1.37+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.00
10Bet
2.88
Betano
2.80
Marathonbet
2.76
Under
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.38
10Bet
1.36
1xBet
1.33
Almeria over/under 2.5 2H
Over
11.3%
@ 7.03-1.9%
Under
88.7%
@ 1.07+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.80
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Cadiz over/under 0.5 2H
Over
43.1%
@ 2.25+1.8%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.58-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.31
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.22
10Bet
2.15
Under
Betano
1.62
10Bet
1.62
1xBet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.53
Cadiz over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.7%
@ 7.67-1.3%
Under
89.3%
@ 1.05+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.90
1xBet
8.10
10Bet
7.00
Betano
6.70
Under
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Cadiz over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.9%
@ 12.50-4.6%
Under
97.1%
@ 1.01+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.6%
Away under 3.5 goals
96.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
96.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
93.9%
1.02
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
+0.6%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+2.8%
Home over 0.5 goals
92.2%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.10
1xBet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
+8.0%
Under 6.5
91.3%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-3.9%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
91.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
10Bet
1.03
-
-
-
+1.0%
Over 1.5
89.7%
1.21
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.25
Bet365
1.22
10Bet
1.22
BetVictor
1.20
+12.6%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.3%
1.05
Betano
1.09
10Bet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+1.3%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
88.7%
1.07
Betano
1.10
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
-
-
+1.9%
Over 19.5 fouls
88.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
87.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
Betfair
1.03
-
-
-3.7%
Home or Draw
84.6%
1.11
Betano
1.15
BetVictor
1.13
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.12
William Hil
1.12
+0.5%
Home +1 handicap
84.6%
1.11
Bet365
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Betfair
1.08
-
+4.6%
Under 2.5 HT goals
83.9%
1.10
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Bet365
1.11
Betfair
1.11
BetVictor
1.08
-0.9%
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.4%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.15
+4.9%
Under 5.5
82.1%
1.04
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.05
BetVictor
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-8.3%
Home or Away
81.2%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Betano
1.22
SBO
1.19
+3.0%
Over 21.5 fouls
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
78.1%
1.28
Unibet
1.37
Betano
1.28
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-
+6.6%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
76.5%
1.21
Betano
1.23
10Bet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
-
+0.2%
Over 3.5 cards
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
74.6%
1.11
Betano
1.14
Bet365
1.12
Betfair
1.11
Unibet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-9.0%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.4%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Bet365
1.33
10Bet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
+2.8%
Over 2.5
72.5%
1.72
Pinnacle
1.77
Betano
1.75
SBO
1.74
Bet365
1.73
10Bet
1.73
+17.6%
Home over 1.5 goals
72.4%
1.57
Bet365
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.59
Betfair
1.57
+13.3%
Under 2.5 2H goals
72.2%
1.22
Betano
1.27
Bet365
1.22
1xBet
1.21
Marathonbet
1.21
William Hil
1.20
-4.0%
Away over 0.5 goals
70.1%
1.59
Pinnacle
1.65
Betfair
1.62
Betano
1.60
Unibet
1.60
1xBet
1.57
+11.8%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Almeria
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Federico Bonini33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Miguel de la Fuente0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adrián Embarba33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Miguel de la Fuente0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Miguel de la Fuente33%
Nicolás Melamed33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Stefan Džodić0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Miguel de la Fuente33%
Stefan Džodić33%
Andrés Fernández0%
Léo Baptistão0%
Federico Bonini0%
Álex Muñoz0%
Mikel Vesga0%
Adrián Embarba0%
Jorge Pulido0%
Nicolás Melamed0%
Brian Cipenga0%
Daijiro Chirino0%
Marcos Luna0%
Quim Junyent0%
Cadiz · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Iuri Tabatadze28%
Brian Ocampo17%
Lucas Pérez14%
Sergio Arribas12%
Pelayo Fernández10%
Alvaro Garcia-Pascual10%
Antonio Cordero10%
Joaquín González9%
Efe Ugiagbe9%
Dawda Camara9%
Roger Martí7%
Jose Antonio de la Rosa7%
Javier Ontiveros7%
Moussa Diakité6%
Jorge Moreno5%
Suso4%
Youssouf Diarra4%
Álex Fernández3%
Sergio Ortuño3%
Rominigue Kouamé0%
David Gil0%
Iza Carcelén0%
Iker Recio0%
Mario Climent0%
Alfred Caicedo0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Victor Wehbi Aznar0%
Jeronimo Domina0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Juan Díaz0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Rominigue Kouamé50%
Mario Climent43%
Iker Recio38%
Alfred Caicedo36%
David Gil25%
Jeronimo Domina25%
Jose Antonio de la Rosa24%
Brian Ocampo23%
Moussa Diakité22%
Jorge Moreno21%
Iza Carcelén20%
Joaquín González18%
Bojan Kovačević17%
Iuri Tabatadze17%
Sergio Ortuño16%
Suso15%
Lucas Pérez14%
Roger Martí14%
Youssouf Diarra14%
Dawda Camara12%
Pelayo Fernández10%
Alvaro Garcia-Pascual10%
Raúl Pereira10%
Antonio Cordero10%
Efe Ugiagbe9%
Juan Díaz9%
Javier Ontiveros7%
Álex Fernández3%
Sergio Arribas0%
Victor Wehbi Aznar0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sergio Arribas12%
Alvaro Garcia-Pascual12%
Suso11%
Sergio Ortuño11%
Iza Carcelén10%
Mario Climent10%
Joaquín González9%
Jose Antonio de la Rosa7%
Javier Ontiveros7%
Brian Ocampo7%
Jorge Moreno5%
Youssouf Diarra4%
Álex Fernández3%
Iker Recio3%
Lucas Pérez0%
Rominigue Kouamé0%
David Gil0%
Roger Martí0%
Iuri Tabatadze0%
Dawda Camara0%
Alfred Caicedo0%
Pelayo Fernández0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Victor Wehbi Aznar0%
Moussa Diakité0%
Jeronimo Domina0%
Efe Ugiagbe0%
Antonio Cordero0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Juan Díaz0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alvaro Garcia-Pascual20%
Dawda Camara12%
Antonio Cordero10%
Javier Ontiveros7%
Brian Ocampo7%
Iuri Tabatadze6%
Roger Martí4%
Youssouf Diarra4%
Jose Antonio de la Rosa3%
Moussa Diakité3%
Suso0%
Lucas Pérez0%
Rominigue Kouamé0%
David Gil0%
Álex Fernández0%
Iza Carcelén0%
Sergio Ortuño0%
Iker Recio0%
Jorge Moreno0%
Sergio Arribas0%
Joaquín González0%
Mario Climent0%
Alfred Caicedo0%
Pelayo Fernández0%
Bojan Kovačević0%
Victor Wehbi Aznar0%
Jeronimo Domina0%
Efe Ugiagbe0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Raúl Pereira0%
Juan Díaz0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (28)
€114m
ALM (26)
€54m
MAL (26)
€48m
OVI (23)
€30m
LEG (26)
€30m
LP (27)
€30m
SG (23)
€28m
CAD (29)
€27m
VAL (29)
€26m
RSI (25)
€23m
CAS (28)
€21m
ALB (27)
€18m
BUR (22)
€17m
GC (18)
€17m
COR (26)
€16m
EIB (24)
€15m
FA (26)
€15m
TEN (28)
€12m
ACF (22)
€10m
SAB (28)
€8m
CDV (22)
€8m
ELD (20)
€7m
Almeria's squad is €27m more valuable than Cadiz's (€54m vs €27m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (12)
€64m
ALM (11)
€38m
MAL (11)
€23m
RSI (10)
€15m
OVI (11)
€15m
SG (8)
€14m
LP (12)
€14m
LEG (11)
€14m
CAD (12)
€11m
CAS (10)
€11m
VAL (11)
€10m
ALB (10)
€8m
BUR (7)
€8m
EIB (8)
€7m
GC (5)
€6m
FA (10)
€6m
ACF (10)
€5m
TEN (13)
€5m
COR (9)
€4m
CDV (9)
€4m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (8)
€3m
Almeria's attack is €27m more valuable than Cadiz's (€38m vs €11m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (7)
€28m
MAL (5)
€9m
LEG (5)
€8m
VAL (6)
€6m
OVI (4)
€6m
SG (5)
€5m
ALM (4)
€4m
COR (5)
€4m
ALB (7)
€4m
TEN (5)
€4m
RSI (6)
€4m
BUR (6)
€4m
CAD (5)
€3m
EIB (6)
€3m
GC (3)
€3m
CAS (6)
€3m
LP (5)
€3m
FA (5)
€3m
SAB (6)
€2m
ACF (4)
€1m
ELD (3)
€1m
CDV (3)
€1m
Almeria's midfield is €1m more valuable than Cadiz's (€4m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GIR (9)
€22m
MAL (10)
€16m
LP (10)
€13m
CAD (12)
€12m
ALM (11)
€11m
VAL (12)
€10m
OVI (8)
€10m
SG (10)
€9m
GC (10)
€9m
LEG (10)
€8m
CAS (12)
€8m
COR (12)
€7m
FA (11)
€7m
BUR (9)
€6m
ALB (10)
€5m
EIB (10)
€5m
RSI (9)
€4m
TEN (10)
€3m
SAB (11)
€3m
ELD (9)
€3m
ACF (8)
€3m
CDV (10)
€2m
Almeria and Cadiz have a similar defence value (both €11m).
Spain: Segunda División 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →
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Granada CF
Castellón
Leganes
Sporting Gijon
Mallorca
Tenerife
Las Palmas
Eibar
Sabadell
Girona
Celta de Vigo II
Burgos
Real Sociedad II
Oviedo
FC Andorra
Cordoba
Valladolid
Eldense
Albacete
AD Ceuta FC