Pythia gives Almeria a 49% win probability against Malaga in the Spain: Segunda División on 2026-06-20, with 22% for the draw and 29% for Malaga. The model estimates around 3.9 total goals, with 6+ the most likely total (21%) and 2-1 the most likely scoreline (8.3%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 1.5 (91%), Over 19.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 21.5 fouls (82%).
Results analysis
Almeria finished 1-2 against Malaga (Away win). Pythia had modelled a 49% home win, 22% draw and 29% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (91%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 3.5 cards (78%), Over 2.5 (75%), BTTS Yes (74%). Missed: Over 19.5 fouls (91%), Over 21.5 fouls (82%), Under 11.5 corners (74%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Almeria win✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Malaga win✓ Hit
29.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Almeria
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.50
2.40
1.40
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
1.52
1.71
2.20
1.70
0.91
1.73
vs Weaker (9)
2.44
1.00
2.80
0.80
2.00
1.25
Clean sheet %
17% (-15pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.10
1.80
1.07
2.07
1.13
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
2.00
1.07
1.85
1.08
2.14
1.07
vs Weaker (2)
1.50
1.50
2.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
91.1%
Under 1.5
8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
75.3%
Under 2.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
55.5%
Under 3.5
44.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
73.8%
No
26.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1
8.3%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
7.1%
1-2 ✓
6.4%
3-1
6.1%
3-2
5.3%
2-0
4.8%
2-3
4.0%
Almeria goals ↓
Malaga goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.7%
2.6%
2.9%
1.6%
0.7%
1
3.6%
8.2%
6.4%
3.6%
1.5%
2
4.8%
8.3%
7.1%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.6%
6.1%
5.3%
3.0%
1.3%
4
2.0%
3.4%
2.9%
1.7%
0.7%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Almeria goals (down), columns = Malaga goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Racing Santander
1.95
Deportivo La Coruna
1.83
Malaga
1.76
Almeria
1.72
Burgos
1.71
Las Palmas
1.68
Castellón
1.66
Eibar
1.60
AD Ceuta FC
1.45
Sporting Gijon
1.45
Cordoba
1.45
Albacete
1.40
FC Andorra
1.38
Granada CF
1.14
Real Sociedad II
1.12
Leganes
1.10
Valladolid
1.10
Cadiz
1.02
Mirandes
0.95
Huesca
0.90
Cultural Leonesa
0.88
Zaragoza
0.86
Almeria is 0.04 points worse than Malaga in terms of average points per game (1.72 vs 1.76).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Racing Santander
2.14
Almeria
1.87
Malaga
1.72
Castellón
1.66
Deportivo La Coruna
1.55
FC Andorra
1.48
Sporting Gijon
1.43
Cordoba
1.36
Albacete
1.33
Las Palmas
1.32
Real Sociedad II
1.24
Eibar
1.24
AD Ceuta FC
1.21
Granada CF
1.19
Burgos
1.14
Mirandes
1.12
Valladolid
1.05
Leganes
1.02
Huesca
0.98
Cadiz
0.98
Cultural Leonesa
0.93
Zaragoza
0.83
Almeria is 0.15 goals better than Malaga in terms of goals scored per game (1.87 vs 1.72).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Burgos
0.79
Eibar
0.95
Las Palmas
0.95
Deportivo La Coruna
1.05
Malaga
1.17
Leganes
1.21
Castellón
1.25
Sporting Gijon
1.29
FC Andorra
1.29
Albacete
1.31
Granada CF
1.33
Valladolid
1.36
Zaragoza
1.40
Real Sociedad II
1.45
Racing Santander
1.45
Cordoba
1.45
Cadiz
1.45
Almeria
1.48
AD Ceuta FC
1.50
Huesca
1.50
Cultural Leonesa
1.62
Mirandes
1.64
Almeria is 0.30 goals worse than Malaga in terms of goals conceded per game (1.48 vs 1.17).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
FC Andorra
61%
Cordoba
58%
Las Palmas
56%
Castellón
55%
Racing Santander
52%
Almeria
52%
Malaga
52%
Leganes
51%
Deportivo La Coruna
51%
AD Ceuta FC
51%
Granada CF
50%
Valladolid
50%
Cultural Leonesa
50%
Eibar
49%
Zaragoza
49%
Burgos
46%
Cadiz
46%
Huesca
46%
Sporting Gijon
46%
Real Sociedad II
44%
Mirandes
43%
Albacete
42%
Almeria is 0.0 percentage points better than Malaga in terms of average possession (52% vs 52%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Almeria
For 3.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.5 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 11.8 · Total 26.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Malaga
For 4.6 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.7 · Against 13.3 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Almeria
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.9
8.8
5.5
5.4
5.6
27.0
27.3
26.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
8.5
8.5
8.5
6.1
5.9
6.2
28.2
29.4
27.0
vs Weaker (16)
11.1
12.8
9.4
4.2
4.2
4.2
24.4
22.9
25.9
% over line
50%
56%
44%
78%
84%
72%
88%
88%
88%
% under line
50%
44%
56%
22%
16%
28%
12%
12%
12%
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.5
9.6
5.2
5.0
5.3
25.0
25.3
24.6
vs Stronger (2)
13.0
12.0
14.0
4.5
6.0
3.0
28.0
25.0
31.0
vs Similar (43)
8.9
8.3
9.6
5.1
4.9
5.3
24.6
25.2
23.9
vs Weaker (5)
8.4
9.0
8.0
5.8
6.0
5.7
27.0
26.0
27.7
% over line
48%
46%
50%
70%
69%
71%
68%
69%
67%
% under line
52%
54%
50%
30%
31%
29%
32%
31%
33%
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Albacete
10.9
Cordoba
10.8
Racing Santander
10.3
Zaragoza
10.0
Castellón
9.9
Sporting Gijon
9.7
Huesca
9.6
Cadiz
9.5
Leganes
9.5
Eibar
9.4
Almeria
9.3
Deportivo La Coruna
9.3
Mirandes
9.2
FC Andorra
9.2
Real Sociedad II
9.1
Granada CF
9.1
Malaga
9.0
Valladolid
9.0
AD Ceuta FC
8.9
Cultural Leonesa
8.7
Burgos
8.4
Las Palmas
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Racing Santander
6.4
Zaragoza
6.1
Castellón
6.0
Real Sociedad II
5.8
Burgos
5.8
Cordoba
5.7
Mirandes
5.7
Granada CF
5.6
FC Andorra
5.5
Almeria
5.5
Cultural Leonesa
5.4
Valladolid
5.4
Eibar
5.3
Malaga
5.3
AD Ceuta FC
5.3
Huesca
5.2
Deportivo La Coruna
5.2
Leganes
5.2
Sporting Gijon
5.1
Cadiz
5.0
Las Palmas
4.6
Albacete
4.6
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Cordoba
29.4
Real Sociedad II
28.4
Valladolid
28.3
Racing Santander
27.8
Granada CF
27.8
Mirandes
27.8
Castellón
27.7
AD Ceuta FC
27.6
Zaragoza
27.6
FC Andorra
27.3
Burgos
27.1
Las Palmas
27.0
Almeria
27.0
Leganes
26.9
Cultural Leonesa
26.0
Cadiz
25.6
Eibar
25.5
Huesca
25.1
Malaga
25.0
Deportivo La Coruna
24.6
Sporting Gijon
22.3
Albacete
21.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
48.9%
Under 9.5
51.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.2%
Under 3.5
21.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Under
Over 21.5
81.7%
Under 21.5
18.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Almeria
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.07
0.47
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.62
0.90
0.50
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (9)
1.33
0.56
1.40
0.40
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Malaga) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Malaga
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.43
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.81
0.41
0.85
0.46
0.79
0.36
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Almeria) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Almeria over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Almeria over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Malaga over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 10. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
91.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
90.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
90.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
81.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
BTTS Yes
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 11. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RS (37)
€82m
ALM (35)
€69m
DLC (33)
€58m
LP (36)
€53m
MAL (32)
€35m
VAL (35)
€35m
SG (29)
€33m
GC (31)
€31m
FA (30)
€26m
CAS (40)
€24m
MIR (32)
€23m
BUR (33)
€21m
CAD (32)
€21m
LEG (28)
€20m
COR (29)
€18m
ZAR (36)
€18m
CL (33)
€17m
EIB (31)
€16m
HUE (33)
€16m
ALB (28)
€15m
ACF (30)
€14m
Almeria's squad is €33m more valuable than Malaga's (€69m vs €35m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DLC (10)
€43m
RS (14)
€42m
ALM (13)
€37m
MAL (11)
€24m
VAL (15)
€20m
SG (12)
€20m
LP (17)
€19m
CAS (20)
€16m
GC (12)
€15m
FA (13)
€12m
LEG (12)
€10m
CAD (14)
€10m
MIR (13)
€9m
ACF (15)
€9m
BUR (11)
€8m
HUE (12)
€8m
CL (12)
€8m
EIB (12)
€7m
ZAR (13)
€6m
COR (9)
€6m
ALB (7)
€4m
Almeria's attack is €13m more valuable than Malaga's (€37m vs €24m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALM (6)
€22m
RS (6)
€17m
LP (3)
€9m
ZAR (8)
€7m
MIR (6)
€7m
BUR (9)
€7m
VAL (6)
€6m
GC (7)
€6m
ALB (9)
€5m
COR (6)
€5m
MAL (8)
€4m
DLC (6)
€4m
SG (5)
€4m
CAD (6)
€4m
FA (5)
€4m
HUE (8)
€4m
LEG (4)
€4m
EIB (6)
€3m
ACF (5)
€2m
CAS (4)
€2m
CL (6)
€2m
Almeria's midfield is €18m more valuable than Malaga's (€22m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LP (16)
€25m
RS (17)
€24m
DLC (17)
€11m
GC (12)
€11m
SG (12)
€10m
FA (12)
€10m
ALM (16)
€9m
VAL (14)
€9m
CL (15)
€7m
MIR (13)
€7m
MAL (13)
€7m
BUR (13)
€7m
COR (14)
€7m
CAD (12)
€6m
CAS (16)
€6m
LEG (12)
€6m
EIB (13)
€6m
ALB (12)
€6m
HUE (13)
€5m
ZAR (15)
€4m
ACF (10)
€3m
Almeria's defence is €2m more valuable than Malaga's (€9m vs €7m).
Spain: Segunda División 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Spain: Segunda División stats & trends →