PythiaFootballBETA
Almeria’s recent slump, ending with a 0-1 loss to Tenerife, has left the squad eager for a home win, and the model’s 71 % home-win probability underscores that urgency. Valladolid, on the other hand, has suffered five consecutive defeats, conceding an average of 2.14 goals away, so the model sees the visitors as the clear underdog. The predicted outcome is a home victory, and the expected total of 4.1 goals signals a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being 6 + goals at 23 % probability. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 for Almeria, carrying an 8.3 % chance.
Almeria’s home form shows they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.7 conceded against similar opposition, while Valladolid’s away form averages 1.21 scored and 2.14 conceded, reinforcing the home advantage. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls (93.3 %), Over 1.5 goals (92.4 % miss), Over 2.5 cards (91.2 %), Over 21.5 fouls (86.0 %), Over 3.5 cards (79.8 %), Over 2.5 goals (78.2 % edge 17 %), Under 11.5 corners (76.0 %), and Over 23.5 fouls (74.9 %). The home win probability is 71 %, the draw 16 %, and the away win 13 %.
Almería’s win over Valladolid was a tidy 1-0, extending their recent run after a defeat to Tenerife. The model’s pre-match favourite, Home win, was correct, with a 71 % probability. The final score matched the predicted 1-0 outcome. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 19.5 fouls hit at 93.3 %, Over 2.5 cards hit at 91.2 %, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 86.0 %, Over 3.5 cards hit at 79.8 %, Under 11.5 corners hit at 76.0 % and Over 23.5 fouls hit at 74.9 %. Over 1.5 missed at 92.4 %, Over 2.5 missed at 78.2 %, and the 17 % edge pick also missed. The model’s overall assessment was spot on.
Almeria| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.93 | 1.57 | 2.50 | 1.36 | 1.44 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.87 | 1.78 | 2.50 | 1.70 | 1.38 | 1.85 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.14 | 0.86 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 1.67 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 17% (-15pp vs league) | |||||
Valladolid| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 1.53 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.13 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 1.07 | 1.55 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 2.14 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
| Valladolid goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 1 | 4.1% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 8.3% | 5.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| 3 | 6.5% | 8.1% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 4.7% | 5.8% | 3.6% | 1.5% | 0.5% |
AlmeriaValladolidAlmeria| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.6 | 10.1 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 26.6 | 26.7 | 26.6 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (36) | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 6.5 | 27.6 | 28.6 | 26.7 |
| vs Weaker (14) | 10.7 | 12.0 | 8.8 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 23.7 | 21.9 | 26.2 |
| % over line | 54% | 58% | 50% | 74% | 79% | 69% | 85% | 83% | 88% |
| % under line | 46% | 42% | 50% | 26% | 21% | 31% | 15% | 17% | 12% |
Valladolid| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 28.4 | 28.8 | 27.9 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 9.0 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 21.0 | 25.5 | 16.5 |
| vs Similar (43) | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 28.9 | 28.9 | 29.0 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 4.5 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 31.5 | 35.0 | 28.0 |
| % over line | 43% | 48% | 38% | 66% | 68% | 64% | 84% | 84% | 83% |
| % under line | 57% | 52% | 62% | 34% | 32% | 36% | 16% | 16% | 17% |
Almeria| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 0.60 | 1.14 | 0.50 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.87 | 0.74 | 1.10 | 0.70 | 0.69 | 0.77 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.14 | 0.14 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Valladolid| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.77 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.52 | 0.76 | 0.33 | 0.47 | 0.71 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+19pp vs league) | |||||
Almeria| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.00 | 0.97 | 1.36 | 0.86 | 0.69 | 1.06 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.00 | 1.04 | 1.40 | 1.00 | 0.69 | 1.08 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.00 | 0.71 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
Valladolid| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.77 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.47 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (29) | 0.55 | 0.79 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.50 | 1.07 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 0.00 | 0.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 93.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 92.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 2.5 cards | 91.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 86.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 3.5 cards | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 | 78.2% | 1.52 | - | - | - | - | - | +17.2% | ✗ Miss |
| Under 11.5 corners | 76.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 74.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Home win | 70.9% | 1.38 | - | - | - | - | - | +4.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 28/05/23 | H | 0-0 | |
| 05/09/22 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/04/22 | A | 2-2 | |
| 20/11/21 | H | 3-1 | |
| 18/03/18 | A | 2-1 | |
| 15/10/17 | H | 1-1 | |
| 07/05/17 | H | 0-3 |
Almeria| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 09/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/05/26 | H | 4-2 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-4 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 05/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 02/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 29/03/26 | H | 5-1 |
Valladolid| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 16/05/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 09/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 25/04/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 13/04/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 31/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Racing Santander | 42 | 82 | 60% | 2.0 | 90 | 61 | +29 | 3.6 | 86% | 71% | 55% | 10.4 | 62% | 6.5 | 88% | 27.4 | 86% | 82 | 42 | 17 | 24 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 2 |  Malaga | 46 | 81 | 50% | 1.8 | 79 | 54 | +25 | 2.9 | 76% | 57% | 28% | 8.9 | 46% | 5.4 | 72% | 24.9 | 70% | 35 | 24 | 4 | 7 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 3 | Almeria | 46 | 79 | 50% | 1.7 | 86 | 68 | +18 | 3.3 | 83% | 70% | 41% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.7 | 80% | 26.8 | 89% | 69 | 37 | 22 | 9 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 4 |  Deportivo La Coruna | 42 | 77 | 52% | 1.8 | 65 | 44 | +21 | 2.6 | 83% | 50% | 21% | 9.3 | 43% | 5.3 | 78% | 24.2 | 74% | 58 | 43 | 4 | 11 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 51% |
| 5 |  Las Palmas | 44 | 74 | 45% | 1.7 | 58 | 42 | +16 | 2.3 | 70% | 43% | 18% | 8.1 | 34% | 4.5 | 61% | 27.5 | 89% | 53 | 19 | 9 | 25 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 56% |
| 6 |  Castellón | 44 | 73 | 45% | 1.7 | 73 | 55 | +18 | 2.9 | 77% | 50% | 41% | 9.9 | 50% | 6.1 | 88% | 28.4 | 95% | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 7 |  Burgos | 42 | 72 | 48% | 1.7 | 48 | 33 | +15 | 1.9 | 55% | 31% | 14% | 8.4 | 33% | 5.9 | 85% | 27.5 | 86% | 21 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 46% |
| 8 |  Eibar | 42 | 67 | 45% | 1.6 | 52 | 40 | +12 | 2.2 | 62% | 48% | 17% | 9.3 | 43% | 5.5 | 83% | 25.5 | 79% | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 49% |
| 9 |  Sporting Gijon | 42 | 61 | 43% | 1.5 | 60 | 54 | +6 | 2.7 | 67% | 55% | 31% | 9.9 | 55% | 5.3 | 76% | 22.2 | 55% | 33 | 20 | 4 | 10 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 46% |
| 10 |  Cordoba | 42 | 61 | 40% | 1.5 | 57 | 61 | -4 | 2.8 | 81% | 60% | 33% | 10.7 | 62% | 5.8 | 88% | 30.0 | 88% | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 58% |
| 11 |  AD Ceuta FC | 42 | 61 | 40% | 1.5 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 2.7 | 74% | 55% | 26% | 8.9 | 43% | 5.3 | 83% | 27.6 | 93% | 14 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 51% |
| 12 |  Albacete | 42 | 59 | 38% | 1.4 | 56 | 55 | +1 | 2.6 | 69% | 50% | 29% | 10.6 | 62% | 4.6 | 71% | 22.1 | 48% | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 42% |
| 13 |  FC Andorra | 42 | 58 | 38% | 1.4 | 62 | 54 | +8 | 2.8 | 74% | 52% | 29% | 9.1 | 45% | 5.7 | 90% | 28.1 | 81% | 26 | 12 | 4 | 10 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 61% |
| 14 |  Granada CF | 42 | 48 | 29% | 1.1 | 50 | 56 | -6 | 2.5 | 64% | 43% | 29% | 9.2 | 40% | 5.7 | 80% | 27.6 | 88% | 31 | 15 | 6 | 11 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 50% |
| 15 |  Real Sociedad II | 42 | 47 | 29% | 1.1 | 52 | 61 | -9 | 2.7 | 69% | 45% | 26% | 9.2 | 43% | 6.1 | 81% | 29.1 | 93% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 44% |
| 16 |  Leganes | 42 | 46 | 26% | 1.1 | 43 | 51 | -8 | 2.2 | 69% | 45% | 14% | 9.5 | 48% | 5.4 | 81% | 27.0 | 88% | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 17 | Valladolid | 42 | 46 | 29% | 1.1 | 44 | 57 | -13 | 2.4 | 62% | 43% | 24% | 8.8 | 40% | 5.9 | 79% | 28.9 | 86% | 35 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 50% |
| 18 |  Cadiz | 42 | 43 | 26% | 1.0 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 2.4 | 67% | 52% | 21% | 9.6 | 48% | 5.2 | 70% | 26.0 | 86% | 21 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 19 |  Mirandes | 42 | 40 | 24% | 1.0 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 2.8 | 76% | 57% | 31% | 9.3 | 45% | 5.9 | 85% | 27.7 | 81% | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 43% |
| 20 |  Huesca | 42 | 38 | 21% | 0.9 | 41 | 63 | -22 | 2.5 | 69% | 43% | 19% | 9.8 | 50% | 5.1 | 83% | 25.5 | 83% | 16 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 46% |
| 21 |  Cultural Leonesa | 42 | 37 | 21% | 0.9 | 39 | 68 | -29 | 2.5 | 69% | 50% | 24% | 8.7 | 38% | 5.0 | 64% | 25.0 | 79% | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 22 |  Zaragoza | 42 | 36 | 19% | 0.9 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 2.2 | 67% | 33% | 19% | 10.2 | 60% | 6.5 | 90% | 28.3 | 86% | 18 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 49% |