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Altrincham vs Aldershot Result & Analysis

Date: 26/03/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Altrincham
Altrincham
Vs
62%
23%
15%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Referee: A Miller
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Altrincham win✓ Hit
62.2%
Avg Implied 52.0% · @ 1.78
Edge
+10.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.6%
Avg Implied 25.4% · @ 3.65
Edge
-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win✗ Miss
15.2%
Avg Implied 22.6% · @ 4.09
Edge
-7.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AltrinchamAltrincham

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-505L22D10W02L30W00D50W40W02L10WA·SOL29/01H·WOK05/02A·KIN12/02A·BOR15/02H·DAG26/02A·MAI05/03H·WEY08/03H·EAS12/03A·SOU19/03H·CHE22/03
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.531.671.871.331.202.00
vs Stronger (20)1.601.451.821.271.331.67
vs Similar (10)1.402.102.001.501.002.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D10W13L13L00D14L02L03L04LA·CHE22/01H·SOU25/01A·WEY29/01H·BAR05/02A·GRI12/02H·DOV22/02A·WRE26/02H·STO05/03H·KIN19/03A·TOR22/03
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
2.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.071.730.801.801.331.67
vs Stronger (21)0.861.950.802.100.911.82
vs Similar (9)1.561.220.801.202.501.25
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%12%18%24%6%014%124%222%316%410%58%6+
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
80.2%
Under 1.5
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
56.5%
@ 1.89+7.0%
Under 2.5
43.5%
@ 1.85-7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
34.1%
Under 3.5
65.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.1%
No
46.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.8%
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
1-0 ✓
9.7%
3-0
7.3%
3-1
6.7%
0-0
6.2%
2-2
4.5%
Altrincham goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
01234
06.2%3.8%2.2%0.7%0.2%
19.7%11%4.5%1.4%0.3%
211%9.9%4.5%1.4%0.3%
37.3%6.7%3.1%0.9%0.2%
43.7%3.4%1.6%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Altrincham goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Stockport
2.14
Wrexham
2.00
Solihull
1.98
Halifax
1.91
Notts County
1.86
Grimsby
1.75
Chesterfield
1.68
Dag and Red
1.66
Bromley
1.52
Boreham Wood
1.52
Torquay
1.50
Yeovil
1.34
Southend
1.32
Altrincham
1.25
Woking
1.20
Wealdstone
1.20
Maidenhead
1.16
Barnet
1.14
Eastleigh
1.05
Aldershot
0.98
King’s Lynn
0.77
Weymouth
0.64
Dover Athletic
0.30
Altrincham is 0.27 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.25 vs 0.98).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Wrexham
2.07
Stockport
1.98
Solihull
1.89
Notts County
1.84
Dag and Red
1.82
Chesterfield
1.57
Grimsby
1.55
Torquay
1.50
Halifax
1.41
Altrincham
1.41
Bromley
1.39
Woking
1.34
Barnet
1.34
Eastleigh
1.18
Wealdstone
1.16
Boreham Wood
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
King’s Lynn
1.07
Aldershot
1.05
Southend
1.02
Yeovil
0.98
Weymouth
0.91
Dover Athletic
0.84
Altrincham is 0.36 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.41 vs 1.05).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Halifax
0.80
Stockport
0.86
Boreham Wood
0.91
Solihull
1.02
Grimsby
1.05
Wrexham
1.05
Yeovil
1.05
Chesterfield
1.16
Notts County
1.18
Bromley
1.20
Dag and Red
1.20
Torquay
1.23
Woking
1.39
Southend
1.39
Wealdstone
1.48
Maidenhead
1.52
Altrincham
1.57
Aldershot
1.66
Eastleigh
1.68
King’s Lynn
1.80
Weymouth
2.00
Barnet
2.02
Dover Athletic
2.30
Altrincham is 0.09 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.66).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AltrinchamAltrincham

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-404L02L10W01L20W00D40W20W02L00DA·SOL29/01H·WOK05/02A·KIN12/02A·BOR15/02H·DAG26/02A·MAI05/03H·WEY08/03H·EAS12/03A·SOU19/03H·CHE22/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.600.970.730.730.471.20
vs Stronger (20)0.600.800.730.640.441.00
vs Similar (10)0.601.300.751.000.501.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W00D02L02L00D01L02L01L03LA·CHE22/01H·SOU25/01A·WEY29/01H·BAR05/02A·GRI12/02H·DOV22/02A·WRE26/02H·STO05/03H·KIN19/03A·TOR22/03
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.1
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.330.930.471.000.200.87
vs Stronger (21)0.291.100.401.200.181.00
vs Similar (9)0.440.560.600.600.250.50
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Altrincham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AltrinchamAltrincham

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L20W00D01L10W00D10W20W00D10WA·SOL29/01H·WOK05/02A·KIN12/02A·BOR15/02H·DAG26/02A·MAI05/03H·WEY08/03H·EAS12/03A·SOU19/03H·CHE22/03
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.930.701.130.600.730.80
vs Stronger (20)1.000.651.090.640.890.67
vs Similar (10)0.800.801.250.500.501.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D01L10W11D11D00D13L00D02L01LA·CHE22/01H·SOU25/01A·WEY29/01H·BAR05/02A·GRI12/02H·DOV22/02A·WRE26/02H·STO05/03H·KIN19/03A·TOR22/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.800.330.801.130.80
vs Stronger (21)0.570.860.400.900.730.82
vs Similar (9)1.110.670.200.602.250.75
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Altrincham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards89.3%-------✗ Miss
Over 1.580.2%-------✗ Miss
Under 4.5 cards77.7%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
STO (25)
€10m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
GRI (18)
€4m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
Altrincham and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
STO (8)
€3m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
GRI (8)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Altrincham and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
STO (6)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
SOU (2)
€0m
GRI (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Altrincham and Aldershot have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
STO (11)
€4m
BAR (9)
€3m
GRI (9)
€2m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
Altrincham and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
ALT wins
1
Draws
2
ALD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Altrincham vs Aldershot · H/A from ALT
DateH/AGameScore
04/12/21AAldershot Vs ALT2-2
13/03/21AAldershot Vs ALT2-1
14/11/20HALT Vs Aldershot1-2

AltrinchamAltrincham

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/22HALT Vs Chesterfield1-0
19/03/22ASouthend Vs ALT2-0
12/03/22HALT Vs Eastleigh4-0
08/03/22HALT Vs Weymouth5-0
05/03/22AMaidenhead Vs ALT0-0
26/02/22HALT Vs Dag and Red3-0
15/02/22ABoreham Wood Vs ALT2-0
12/02/22AKing’s Lynn Vs ALT0-1
05/02/22HALT Vs Woking2-2
29/01/22ASolihull Vs ALT5-0

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
22/03/22ATorquay Vs ALD4-0
19/03/22HALD Vs King’s Lynn0-3
05/03/22HALD Vs Stockport0-2
26/02/22AWrexham Vs ALD4-1
22/02/22HALD Vs Dover Athletic0-0
12/02/22AGrimsby Vs ALD3-1
05/02/22HALD Vs Barnet1-3
29/01/22AWeymouth Vs ALD0-1
25/01/22HALD Vs Southend1-1
22/01/22AChesterfield Vs ALD0-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Altrincham
Altrincham
England: National League
Recent: 5 Wins / 2 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWLW1.12
HomeDWWWW1.35
AwayLWLDL0.88
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %30%38%21%
AVG goals2.983.042.92
Over 1.5 %80%77%83%
Over 2.5 %54%58%50%
Over 3.5 %38%38%38%
Scored1.361.651.04
Conceded1.621.381.88
BTTS52%50%54%
Clean Sheet22%31%12%
Corners---
Cards3.023.082.96
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 1 Wins / 3 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLLL0.98
HomeDLDLL0.73
AwayDWLLL1.25
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %26%15%38%
AVG goals2.902.813.00
Over 1.5 %76%85%67%
Over 2.5 %56%50%62%
Over 3.5 %36%31%42%
Scored1.181.001.38
Conceded1.721.811.62
BTTS54%58%50%
Clean Sheet22%15%29%
Corners---
Cards4.044.123.96

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1StockportStockport4494
68%
2.1
8738+49
2.8
75%
61%
25%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
10
3342.00.9
-
2WrexhamWrexham4488
59%
2.0
9146+45
3.1
80%
52%
34%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
77
1523392.11.0
-
3SolihullSolihull4487
57%
2.0
8345+38
2.9
77%
55%
34%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.91.0
-
4HalifaxHalifax4484
57%
1.9
6235+27
2.2
66%
34%
20%
-
0%
3.3
45%
-
0%
0
0001.40.8
-
5Notts CountyNotts County4482
55%
1.9
8152+29
3.0
82%
52%
34%
-
0%
4.3
61%
-
0%
6
2221.81.2
-
6GrimsbyGrimsby4477
52%
1.8
6846+22
2.6
64%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.0
45%
-
0%
4
1021.51.0
-
7ChesterfieldChesterfield4474
45%
1.7
6951+18
2.7
75%
45%
39%
-
0%
3.7
45%
-
0%
6
3121.61.2
-
8
DA
Dag and Red		4473
50%
1.7
8053+27
3.0
80%
61%
32%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.81.2
-
9Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4467
41%
1.5
4940+9
2.0
61%
30%
16%
-
0%
3.1
32%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
-
10BromleyBromley4467
41%
1.5
6153+8
2.6
75%
43%
27%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
4
1121.41.2
-
11
T
Torquay		4466
41%
1.5
6654+12
2.7
80%
55%
30%
-
0%
3.4
50%
-
0%
0
0001.51.2
-
12YeovilYeovil4459
34%
1.3
4346-3
2.0
70%
39%
7%
-
0%
4.3
66%
-
0%
0
0001.01.0
-
13SouthendSouthend4458
36%
1.3
4561-16
2.4
68%
41%
23%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
1
0001.01.4
-
14AltrinchamAltrincham4455
34%
1.2
6269-7
3.0
80%
52%
39%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.6
-
15WokingWoking4453
36%
1.2
5961-2
2.7
73%
48%
32%
-
0%
4.3
57%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4453
32%
1.2
5165-14
2.6
70%
52%
30%
-
0%
3.4
48%
-
0%
0
0001.21.5
-
17
M
Maidenhead		4451
30%
1.2
4867-19
2.6
73%
45%
32%
-
0%
3.2
32%
-
0%
0
0001.11.5
-
18BarnetBarnet4450
30%
1.1
5989-30
3.4
84%
64%
41%
-
0%
3.5
48%
-
0%
4
0131.32.0
-
19EastleighEastleigh4446
27%
1.0
5274-22
2.9
73%
50%
30%
-
0%
3.9
59%
-
0%
1
0001.21.7
-
20AldershotAldershot4443
25%
1.0
4673-27
2.7
77%
52%
32%
-
0%
4.2
61%
-
0%
0
0001.01.7
-
21
KL
King’s Lynn		4434
18%
0.8
4779-32
2.9
70%
52%
32%
-
0%
3.4
45%
-
0%
0
0001.11.8
-
22
W
Weymouth		4428
14%
0.6
4088-48
2.9
80%
50%
32%
-
0%
2.7
41%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
23
DA
Dover Athletic		4413
5%
0.3
37101-64
3.1
73%
59%
39%
-
0%
3.2
48%
-
0%
0
0000.82.3
-
England: National League 2021/22 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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