PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

Altrincham vs Aldershot Result & Analysis

Date: 03/10/2023
Time: 19:45
Final 2-1
Altrincham
Altrincham
Vs
54%
24%
22%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Referee: R Aspinall

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Altrincham win✓ Hit
53.9%
Avg Implied 52.6% · @ 1.75
Edge
+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.7%
Avg Implied 24.1% · @ 3.82
Edge
-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aldershot win✗ Miss
22.4%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.94
Edge
-0.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AltrinchamAltrincham

Last 10 – goals for & against
60-611D21W33D12L03L00D22D61W10W21WH·BOR19/08H·CHE26/08A·FYL28/08H·BRO02/09A·BAR09/09A·WEA16/09H·HAR19/09H·EBB23/09A·MAI26/09A·OXF30/09
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.701.631.861.361.561.88
vs Stronger (16)1.881.751.781.562.002.00
vs Similar (14)1.501.502.001.001.221.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-411D31W03L34L20W11D12L21W11D32WH·YOR19/08H·WEA26/08A·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09H·SOU26/09H·DAG30/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.771.881.561.212.00
vs Stronger (20)1.651.902.001.821.222.00
vs Similar (10)1.401.501.601.001.202.00
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%11%17%22%5%011%122%222%318%411%511%6+
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.0%
Under 1.5
16.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.3%
@ 1.57+3.0%
Under 2.5
37.7%
@ 2.29-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.1%
Under 3.5
59.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.0%
No
38.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.8%
2-1 ✓
9.7%
2-0
7.9%
1-0
7.0%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.0%
2-2
6.0%
3-0
5.2%
Altrincham goals ↓
Aldershot goals →
01234
05.0%4.0%3.0%1.2%0.4%
17.0%11%6.0%2.5%0.8%
27.9%9.7%6.0%2.5%0.8%
35.2%6.4%4.0%1.6%0.5%
42.6%3.2%2.0%0.8%0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Altrincham goals (down), columns = Aldershot goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Chesterfield
2.13
Barnet
1.87
Bromley
1.76
Altrincham
1.67
Solihull
1.65
Gateshead
1.63
Southend
1.63
Halifax
1.54
Aldershot
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Rochdale
1.35
Hartlepool
1.30
Eastleigh
1.28
Maidenhead
1.26
Dag and Red
1.22
Wealdstone
1.22
Woking
1.20
Fylde
1.20
Ebbsfleet
1.17
York
1.15
Boreham Wood
1.13
Kidderminster
1.00
Dorking
0.98
Oxford City
0.72
Altrincham is 0.17 points better than Aldershot in terms of average points per game (1.67 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Chesterfield
2.30
Barnet
1.98
Gateshead
1.91
Altrincham
1.83
Aldershot
1.61
Fylde
1.61
Bromley
1.59
Eastleigh
1.59
Solihull
1.54
Hartlepool
1.52
Southend
1.52
Dag and Red
1.50
Rochdale
1.50
Oldham
1.37
Maidenhead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Boreham Wood
1.28
Ebbsfleet
1.28
Halifax
1.26
York
1.20
Dorking
1.17
Oxford City
1.17
Woking
1.07
Kidderminster
0.87
Altrincham is 0.22 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals scored per game (1.83 vs 1.61).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Southend
0.98
Bromley
1.07
Halifax
1.09
Woking
1.20
Altrincham
1.28
Kidderminster
1.28
Oldham
1.30
Barnet
1.30
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.37
Gateshead
1.39
Rochdale
1.39
Chesterfield
1.41
Maidenhead
1.46
York
1.50
Wealdstone
1.57
Boreham Wood
1.59
Ebbsfleet
1.61
Hartlepool
1.78
Fylde
1.78
Aldershot
1.80
Dorking
1.85
Eastleigh
1.89
Oxford City
2.04
Altrincham is 0.52 goals better than Aldershot in terms of goals conceded per game (1.28 vs 1.80).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Gateshead
61%
Chesterfield
60%
Barnet
57%
Southend
56%
Wealdstone
55%
Rochdale
55%
Dorking
53%
Ebbsfleet
52%
Altrincham
52%
Hartlepool
50%
Aldershot
50%
Woking
49%
Solihull
48%
Oxford City
48%
Halifax
48%
Fylde
47%
Oldham
46%
Kidderminster
46%
York
45%
Eastleigh
44%
Bromley
43%
Boreham Wood
43%
Maidenhead
42%
Altrincham is 1.7 percentage points better than Aldershot in terms of average possession (52% vs 50%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AltrinchamAltrincham

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-410W01L20W11D01L00D21W41W00D10WH·BOR19/08H·CHE26/08A·FYL28/08H·BRO02/09A·BAR09/09A·WEA16/09H·HAR19/09H·EBB23/09A·MAI26/09A·OXF30/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.830.800.930.790.750.81
vs Stronger (16)0.810.750.780.780.860.71
vs Similar (14)0.860.861.200.800.670.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
10-110W10W01L11D00D00D01L10W10W11DH·YOR19/08H·WEA26/08A·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09H·SOU26/09H·DAG30/09
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.700.940.500.290.93
vs Stronger (20)0.700.851.090.730.221.00
vs Similar (10)0.500.400.600.000.400.80
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Altrincham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AltrinchamAltrincham

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L20W13L01L02L00D01L20W10W11DH·BOR19/08H·CHE26/08A·FYL28/08H·BRO02/09A·BAR09/09A·WEA16/09H·HAR19/09H·EBB23/09A·MAI26/09A·OXF30/09
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.830.930.570.811.06
vs Stronger (16)1.061.001.000.781.141.29
vs Similar (14)0.640.640.800.200.560.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aldershot) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

AldershotAldershot

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L21W02L23L20W11D11D11D01L21WH·YOR19/08H·WEA26/08A·EAS28/08H·CHE02/09A·FYL09/09H·GAT16/09A·BAR19/09A·BOR23/09H·SOU26/09H·DAG30/09
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.931.070.941.060.931.07
vs Stronger (20)0.951.050.911.091.001.00
vs Similar (10)0.901.101.001.000.801.20
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Altrincham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aldershot over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.584.0%-------✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards82.4%-------✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards70.7%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
ROC (10)
€2m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
HAR (6)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Altrincham and Aldershot have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CHE (9)
€3m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Altrincham and Aldershot have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
ROC (3)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Altrincham and Aldershot have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
ROC (4)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
HAR (2)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Altrincham and Aldershot have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

6 previous meetings
2
ALT wins
2
Draws
2
ALD wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Altrincham vs Aldershot · H/A from ALT
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/23AAldershot Vs ALT1-1
24/09/22HALT Vs Aldershot1-0
26/03/22HALT Vs Aldershot1-0
04/12/21AAldershot Vs ALT2-2
13/03/21AAldershot Vs ALT2-1
14/11/20HALT Vs Aldershot1-2

AltrinchamAltrincham

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23AOxford City Vs ALT1-2
26/09/23AMaidenhead Vs ALT0-1
23/09/23HALT Vs Ebbsfleet6-1
19/09/23HALT Vs Hartlepool2-2
16/09/23AWealdstone Vs ALT0-0
09/09/23ABarnet Vs ALT3-0
02/09/23HALT Vs Bromley1-2
28/08/23AFylde Vs ALT3-3
26/08/23HALT Vs Chesterfield2-1
19/08/23HALT Vs Boreham Wood1-1

AldershotAldershot

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
30/09/23HALD Vs Dag and Red3-2
26/09/23HALD Vs Southend1-1
23/09/23ABoreham Wood Vs ALD1-2
19/09/23ABarnet Vs ALD2-1
16/09/23HALD Vs Gateshead1-1
09/09/23AFylde Vs ALD0-2
02/09/23HALD Vs Chesterfield3-4
28/08/23AEastleigh Vs ALD3-0
26/08/23HALD Vs Wealdstone3-1
19/08/23HALD Vs York1-1

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Altrincham
Altrincham
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 4 Draws / 2 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDDWWW1.44
HomeDWLDW1.64
AwayDLDWW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%48%28%
AVG goals3.302.963.64
Over 1.5 %84%80%88%
Over 2.5 %66%60%72%
Over 3.5 %46%32%60%
Scored1.661.681.64
Conceded1.641.282.00
BTTS70%68%72%
Clean Sheet10%12%8%
Corners---
Cards3.403.842.96
Aldershot
Aldershot
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLWDW1.24
HomeWLDDW1.20
AwayLLWLW1.28
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%28%36%
AVG goals3.183.043.32
Over 1.5 %92%92%92%
Over 2.5 %56%48%64%
Over 3.5 %28%24%32%
Scored1.481.521.44
Conceded1.701.521.88
BTTS66%76%56%
Clean Sheet18%12%24%
Corners---
Cards3.604.083.12

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1ChesterfieldChesterfield4698
67%
2.1
10665+41
3.7
91%
74%
52%
-
0%
4.0
48%
-
0%
6
3122.31.4
60%
2BarnetBarnet4686
57%
1.9
9160+31
3.3
87%
57%
39%
-
0%
4.2
65%
-
0%
4
0132.01.3
57%
3BromleyBromley4681
48%
1.8
7349+24
2.7
76%
48%
30%
-
0%
3.6
41%
-
0%
4
1121.61.1
43%
4AltrinchamAltrincham4677
48%
1.7
8459+25
3.1
80%
65%
37%
-
0%
3.7
50%
-
0%
0
0001.81.3
52%
5SolihullSolihull4676
46%
1.7
7162+9
2.9
85%
57%
24%
-
0%
4.0
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
48%
6SouthendSouthend4675
46%
1.6
7045+25
2.5
85%
48%
13%
-
0%
3.3
39%
-
0%
1
0001.51.0
56%
7GatesheadGateshead4675
48%
1.6
8864+24
3.3
87%
63%
41%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
0
0001.91.4
61%
8HalifaxHalifax4671
41%
1.5
5850+8
2.3
74%
43%
20%
-
0%
4.2
52%
-
0%
0
0001.31.1
48%
9AldershotAldershot4669
43%
1.5
7483-9
3.4
85%
61%
39%
-
0%
4.5
63%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
50%
10OldhamOldham4663
33%
1.4
6360+3
2.7
78%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.9
52%
-
0%
3
1111.41.3
46%
11RochdaleRochdale4662
35%
1.3
6964+5
2.9
83%
59%
33%
-
0%
4.0
52%
-
0%
2
1111.51.4
55%
12HartlepoolHartlepool4660
37%
1.3
7082-12
3.3
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
1
0001.51.8
50%
13EastleighEastleigh4659
35%
1.3
7387-14
3.5
80%
65%
41%
-
0%
4.1
52%
-
0%
1
0001.61.9
44%
14
M
Maidenhead
4658
33%
1.3
6067-7
2.8
70%
52%
39%
-
0%
4.1
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.5
42%
15
DA
Dag and Red
4656
30%
1.2
6963+6
2.9
74%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
0
0001.51.4
-
16WealdstoneWealdstone4656
33%
1.2
6072-12
2.9
74%
48%
33%
-
0%
4.0
50%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
55%
17WokingWoking4655
33%
1.2
4955-6
2.3
65%
37%
17%
-
0%
4.2
54%
-
0%
0
0001.11.2
49%
18
F
Fylde
4655
33%
1.2
7482-8
3.4
96%
74%
43%
-
0%
3.8
57%
-
0%
0
0001.61.8
47%
19
E
Ebbsfleet
4654
30%
1.2
5974-15
2.9
76%
50%
33%
-
0%
4.5
61%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
52%
20YorkYork4653
26%
1.2
5569-14
2.7
83%
46%
30%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
1
0011.21.5
45%
21Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4652
26%
1.1
5973-14
2.9
80%
57%
33%
-
0%
3.5
39%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
43%
22
K
Kidderminster
4646
24%
1.0
4059-19
2.2
63%
41%
15%
-
0%
3.7
48%
-
0%
0
0000.91.3
46%
23
D
Dorking
4645
26%
1.0
5485-31
3.0
78%
59%
33%
-
0%
3.9
63%
-
0%
0
0001.21.8
53%
24
OC
Oxford City
4633
17%
0.7
5494-40
3.2
83%
65%
43%
-
0%
3.4
41%
-
0%
0
0001.22.0
48%
England: National League 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

← all matches