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Altrincham vs Southend Result & Analysis

Date: 25/03/2023
Time: 15:00
Final 1-0
Altrincham
Altrincham
Vs
40%
29%
31%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Referee: S Copeland
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Altrincham win✓ Hit
39.9%
Avg Implied 33.9% · @ 2.72
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.7%
Avg Implied 27.5% · @ 3.36
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Southend win✗ Miss
31.4%
Avg Implied 38.6% · @ 2.39
Edge
-7.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AltrinchamAltrincham

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-412L12L31W42W41W11D04L02L21W23LH·WRE04/02H·BRO14/02H·WOK18/02A·BAR21/02H·SOL25/02A·YEO28/02A·WEA04/03A·SCU07/03A·YOR14/03A·EAS18/03
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.671.801.711.211.622.31
vs Stronger (14)1.642.211.431.571.862.86
vs Similar (16)1.691.442.000.861.441.89
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %7% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-421W21W10W04L21W01L12L01L01L12LA·MAI07/02H·HAL14/02H·GAT18/02A·NOT21/02A·TOR25/02H·BAR03/03H·CHE07/03A·WRE11/03A·BOR14/03H·ALD18/03
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.4
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.301.071.380.941.211.21
vs Stronger (15)1.001.200.831.001.111.33
vs Similar (13)1.770.771.780.781.750.75
vs Weaker (2)0.502.001.002.000.002.00
Clean sheet %40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%26%9%017%126%222%314%47%55%6+
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.8%
Under 1.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
48.5%
@ 1.89-1.0%
Under 2.5
51.5%
@ 1.85+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
26.7%
Under 3.5
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
54.2%
No
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.7%
1-0 ✓
9.0%
2-1
8.7%
0-0
8.6%
0-1
7.7%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
7.2%
0-2
5.4%
Altrincham goals ↓
Southend goals →
01234
08.6%7.7%5.4%2.2%0.7%
19.0%14%7.6%3.1%0.9%
27.2%8.7%5.3%2.1%0.7%
33.3%4.1%2.5%1.0%0.3%
41.2%1.4%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Altrincham goals (down), columns = Southend goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Wrexham
2.41
Notts County
2.33
Chesterfield
1.83
Woking
1.78
Barnet
1.61
Boreham Wood
1.57
Bromley
1.54
Southend
1.50
Eastleigh
1.46
Dag and Red
1.37
Oldham
1.33
Halifax
1.33
Gateshead
1.30
Wealdstone
1.30
Solihull
1.26
Dorking
1.24
Altrincham
1.22
Aldershot
1.15
York
1.11
Maidenhead
1.09
Torquay
1.04
Yeovil
0.87
Scunthorpe
0.74
Maidstone
0.54
Altrincham is 0.28 points worse than Southend in terms of average points per game (1.22 vs 1.50).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Notts County
2.54
Wrexham
2.52
Chesterfield
1.76
Barnet
1.63
Woking
1.54
Bromley
1.48
Altrincham
1.48
Gateshead
1.46
Dorking
1.46
Aldershot
1.39
Oldham
1.37
Solihull
1.35
Dag and Red
1.33
Torquay
1.26
Southend
1.24
Wealdstone
1.24
Eastleigh
1.22
York
1.20
Boreham Wood
1.13
Scunthorpe
1.07
Halifax
1.07
Maidenhead
1.02
Maidstone
0.98
Yeovil
0.76
Altrincham is 0.24 goals better than Southend in terms of goals scored per game (1.48 vs 1.24).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Boreham Wood
0.87
Notts County
0.91
Wrexham
0.93
Southend
0.98
Halifax
1.04
Woking
1.04
Chesterfield
1.13
Bromley
1.15
Eastleigh
1.24
Yeovil
1.30
Gateshead
1.35
York
1.37
Oldham
1.39
Solihull
1.43
Maidenhead
1.43
Barnet
1.46
Dag and Red
1.57
Wealdstone
1.57
Aldershot
1.65
Torquay
1.74
Altrincham
1.78
Scunthorpe
1.89
Dorking
1.98
Maidstone
2.26
Altrincham is 0.80 goals worse than Southend in terms of goals conceded per game (1.78 vs 0.98).

⏱️ Possession

Avg possession %
Notts County
58%
Wrexham
56%
Boreham Wood
55%
Yeovil
54%
Chesterfield
48%
Solihull
47%
Southend
46%
Maidenhead
46%
Halifax
45%
Dorking
44%
Altrincham
43%
Oldham
42%
Barnet
40%
Altrincham is 3.0 percentage points worse than Southend in terms of average possession (43% vs 46%).

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AltrinchamAltrincham

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D02L11D12L31W10W02L00D10W12LH·WRE04/02H·BRO14/02H·WOK18/02A·BAR21/02H·SOL25/02A·YEO28/02A·WEA04/03A·SCU07/03A·YOR14/03A·EAS18/03
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.630.870.570.710.691.00
vs Stronger (14)0.501.070.430.860.571.29
vs Similar (16)0.750.690.710.570.780.78
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-211D01L10W02L10W00D01L01L00D10WA·MAI07/02H·HAL14/02H·GAT18/02A·NOT21/02A·TOR25/02H·BAR03/03H·CHE07/03A·WRE11/03A·BOR14/03H·ALD18/03
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.530.430.560.380.500.50
vs Stronger (15)0.400.530.330.330.440.67
vs Similar (13)0.690.310.670.440.750.00
vs Weaker (2)0.500.501.000.000.001.00
Clean sheet %60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Altrincham over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AltrinchamAltrincham

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-312L10W20W30W10W01L02L02L11D11DH·WRE04/02H·BRO14/02H·WOK18/02A·BAR21/02H·SOL25/02A·YEO28/02A·WEA04/03A·SCU07/03A·YOR14/03A·EAS18/03
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.030.931.140.500.941.31
vs Stronger (14)1.141.141.000.711.291.57
vs Similar (16)0.940.751.290.290.671.11
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Southend) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

SouthendSouthend

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W20W00D02L11D01L11D00D01L02LA·MAI07/02H·HAL14/02H·GAT18/02A·NOT21/02A·TOR25/02H·BAR03/03H·CHE07/03A·WRE11/03A·BOR14/03H·ALD18/03
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.770.630.810.560.710.71
vs Stronger (15)0.600.670.500.670.670.67
vs Similar (13)1.080.461.110.331.000.75
vs Weaker (2)0.001.500.002.000.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Altrincham) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Altrincham over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Altrincham over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Southend over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 5.5 cards85.4%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.574.8%-------✗ Miss
Under 3.573.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards72.0%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (32)
€77m
NC (24)
€6m
CHE (24)
€6m
BRO (19)
€4m
BAR (15)
€4m
OLD (21)
€3m
YOR (8)
€1m
EAS (5)
€1m
SOU (3)
€1m
SOL (3)
€0m
ALT (5)
€0m
ALD (4)
€0m
WOK (3)
€0m
YEO (3)
€0m
SCU (2)
€0m
WEA (2)
€0m
HAL (2)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
Altrincham and Southend have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€15m
CHE (9)
€3m
NC (7)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
BRO (5)
€1m
BAR (2)
€0m
YOR (2)
€0m
ALD (3)
€0m
ALT (3)
€0m
SOL (2)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
GAT (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
WOK (1)
€0m
SOU (0)
€0m
WEA (0)
€0m
Altrincham and Southend have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (9)
€23m
NC (7)
€2m
BRO (6)
€1m
CHE (5)
€1m
OLD (7)
€1m
BAR (4)
€1m
YOR (2)
€0m
SOU (2)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
EAS (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
SCU (0)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
ALD (0)
€0m
SOL (0)
€0m
HAL (0)
€0m
WOK (0)
€0m
Altrincham and Southend have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
WRE (14)
€39m
BAR (9)
€3m
CHE (10)
€2m
NC (10)
€2m
BRO (8)
€2m
OLD (7)
€1m
YOR (4)
€1m
EAS (3)
€0m
WOK (2)
€0m
SOL (1)
€0m
SOU (1)
€0m
SCU (1)
€0m
YEO (1)
€0m
WEA (1)
€0m
HAL (1)
€0m
ALD (1)
€0m
ALT (1)
€0m
GAT (0)
€0m
Altrincham and Southend have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

3 previous meetings
0
ALT wins
1
Draws
2
SOU wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Altrincham vs Southend · H/A from ALT
DateH/AGameScore
03/12/22ASouthend Vs ALT2-2
19/03/22ASouthend Vs ALT2-0
27/11/21HALT Vs Southend1-2

AltrinchamAltrincham

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23AEastleigh Vs ALT3-2
14/03/23AYork Vs ALT1-2
07/03/23AScunthorpe Vs ALT2-0
04/03/23AWealdstone Vs ALT4-0
28/02/23AYeovil Vs ALT1-1
25/02/23HALT Vs Solihull4-1
21/02/23ABarnet Vs ALT2-4
18/02/23HALT Vs Woking3-1
14/02/23HALT Vs Bromley1-2
04/02/23HALT Vs Wrexham1-2

SouthendSouthend

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
18/03/23HSOU Vs Aldershot1-2
14/03/23ABoreham Wood Vs SOU1-0
11/03/23AWrexham Vs SOU1-0
07/03/23HSOU Vs Chesterfield1-2
03/03/23HSOU Vs Barnet0-1
25/02/23ATorquay Vs SOU1-2
21/02/23ANotts County Vs SOU4-0
18/02/23HSOU Vs Gateshead1-0
14/02/23HSOU Vs Halifax2-1
07/02/23AMaidenhead Vs SOU1-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Altrincham
Altrincham
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 1 Draws / 5 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDLLWL1.34
HomeLLLWW1.76
AwayDLLWL0.92
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %36%52%20%
AVG goals3.122.843.40
Over 1.5 %82%76%88%
Over 2.5 %58%56%60%
Over 3.5 %42%32%52%
Scored1.441.681.20
Conceded1.681.162.20
BTTS62%64%60%
Clean Sheet14%20%8%
Corners---
Cards3.023.442.60
Southend
Southend
England: National League
Recent: 4 Wins / 0 Draws / 6 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLLLL1.34
HomeWWLLL1.50
AwayWLWLL1.14
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %38%43%32%
AVG goals2.262.112.45
Over 1.5 %68%64%73%
Over 2.5 %44%39%50%
Over 3.5 %16%11%23%
Scored1.101.141.05
Conceded1.160.961.41
BTTS38%36%41%
Clean Sheet36%43%27%
Corners---
Cards3.723.713.73

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1WrexhamWrexham46111
74%
2.4
11643+73
3.5
87%
70%
48%
-
0%
2.6
30%
-
0%
77
1523392.50.9
56%
2Notts CountyNotts County46107
70%
2.3
11742+75
3.5
91%
70%
50%
-
0%
3.5
50%
-
0%
6
2222.50.9
58%
3ChesterfieldChesterfield4684
54%
1.8
8152+29
2.9
80%
59%
35%
-
0%
4.0
57%
-
0%
6
3121.81.1
48%
4WokingWoking4682
52%
1.8
7148+23
2.6
78%
43%
26%
-
0%
4.2
59%
-
0%
0
0001.51.0
-
5BarnetBarnet4674
46%
1.6
7567+8
3.1
85%
50%
33%
-
0%
3.6
52%
-
0%
4
0131.61.5
40%
6Boreham WoodBoreham Wood4672
41%
1.6
5240+12
2.0
65%
22%
13%
-
0%
3.3
52%
-
0%
0
0001.10.9
55%
7BromleyBromley4671
39%
1.5
6853+15
2.6
80%
48%
24%
-
0%
3.7
54%
-
0%
4
1121.51.2
-
8SouthendSouthend4669
43%
1.5
5745+12
2.2
70%
41%
15%
-
0%
4.0
63%
-
0%
1
0001.21.0
46%
9EastleighEastleigh4667
41%
1.5
5657-1
2.5
63%
41%
26%
-
0%
3.8
50%
-
0%
1
0001.21.2
-
10
DA
Dag and Red		4663
39%
1.4
6172-11
2.9
78%
50%
28%
-
0%
2.9
41%
-
0%
0
0001.31.6
-
11HalifaxHalifax4661
35%
1.3
4948+1
2.1
61%
30%
20%
-
0%
3.6
48%
-
0%
0
0001.11.0
45%
12OldhamOldham4661
35%
1.3
6364-1
2.8
80%
50%
28%
-
0%
3.3
48%
-
0%
3
1111.41.4
42%
13GatesheadGateshead4660
33%
1.3
6762+5
2.8
87%
54%
33%
-
0%
3.3
41%
-
0%
0
0001.51.3
-
14WealdstoneWealdstone4660
35%
1.3
5772-15
2.8
74%
59%
35%
-
0%
4.0
67%
-
0%
0
0001.21.6
-
15SolihullSolihull4658
33%
1.3
6266-4
2.8
83%
52%
26%
-
0%
3.3
37%
-
0%
0
0001.31.4
47%
16
D
Dorking		4657
35%
1.2
6791-24
3.4
85%
70%
52%
-
0%
3.7
52%
-
0%
0
0001.52.0
44%
17AltrinchamAltrincham4656
30%
1.2
6882-14
3.3
85%
63%
48%
-
0%
3.0
43%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
43%
18AldershotAldershot4653
30%
1.2
6476-12
3.0
87%
57%
28%
-
0%
3.2
41%
-
0%
0
0001.41.7
-
19YorkYork4651
28%
1.1
5563-8
2.6
80%
50%
20%
-
0%
3.4
46%
-
0%
1
0011.21.4
-
20
M
Maidenhead		4650
28%
1.1
4766-19
2.5
70%
43%
22%
-
0%
3.2
39%
-
0%
0
0001.01.4
46%
21
T
Torquay		4648
26%
1.0
5880-22
3.0
72%
50%
35%
-
0%
4.0
59%
-
0%
0
0001.31.7
-
22YeovilYeovil4640
15%
0.9
3560-25
2.1
65%
30%
17%
-
0%
3.6
50%
-
0%
0
0000.81.3
54%
23ScunthorpeScunthorpe4634
17%
0.7
4987-38
3.0
87%
52%
37%
-
0%
3.2
43%
-
0%
0
0001.11.9
-
24
M
Maidstone		4625
11%
0.5
45104-59
3.2
85%
63%
41%
-
0%
3.2
41%
-
0%
0
0001.02.3
-
England: National League 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: National League stats & trends →

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