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Aluminij vs Primorje Result & Analysis

Date: 12/05/2023
Time: 16:00
Final 0-1
Aluminij
Aluminij
Vs
54%
27%
19%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Primorje
Primorje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✗ Miss
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Primorje win✓ Hit
18.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-422D20W11D40W40W11D20W20W31W31WH·RUD03/03A·BRI11/03H·NAF17/03A·TRI24/03H·FUŽ01/04A·BIS10/04H·BEL16/04A·DEK21/04H·DOB29/04A·BIL03/05
Avg total
3.0
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
0.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.000.711.930.642.070.79
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.800.601.710.711.880.50
vs Weaker (13)2.230.852.140.572.331.17
Clean sheet %50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PrimorjePrimorje

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W11D22D14L00D20W01L32W01L42WH·BIS04/03A·BEL12/03H·DEK19/03A·DOB26/03H·BIL01/04A·RUD10/04A·KRK14/04H·KRŠ22/04A·ILI29/04H·ROG03/05
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.431.391.641.711.211.07
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)1.351.351.541.691.151.00
vs Weaker (2)2.502.003.002.002.002.00
Clean sheet %21% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%13%20%27%10%018%127%221%313%47%54%6+
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
71.9%
Under 1.5
28.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
45.0%
Under 2.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.7%
Under 3.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.5%
No
52.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-0
12.4%
2-0
10.9%
0-0
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
0-1 ✓
6.1%
3-0
5.9%
3-1
5.1%
Aluminij goals ↓
Primorje goals →
01234
09.6%6.1%3.1%0.9%0.2%
112%13%5.1%1.5%0.3%
211%9.4%4.1%1.2%0.3%
35.9%5.1%2.2%0.6%0.1%
42.4%2.0%0.9%0.3%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Primorje goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Aluminij is 0.77 points better than Primorje in terms of average points per game (2.13 vs 1.37).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Aluminij is 0.53 goals better than Primorje in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.40).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Aluminij is 0.57 goals better than Primorje in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.33).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W11D10W20W00D00D10W30W21WH·RUD03/03A·BRI11/03H·NAF17/03A·TRI24/03H·FUŽ01/04A·BIS10/04H·BEL16/04A·DEK21/04H·DOB29/04A·BIL03/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.890.251.070.210.710.29
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)0.530.130.860.140.250.12
vs Weaker (13)1.310.381.290.291.330.50
Clean sheet %75% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PrimorjePrimorje

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-420W00D11D14L00D10W01L12L00D02LH·BIS04/03A·BEL12/03H·DEK19/03A·DOB26/03H·BIL01/04A·RUD10/04A·KRK14/04H·KRŠ22/04A·ILI29/04H·ROG03/05
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.0
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.610.680.500.860.710.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.580.620.460.770.690.46
vs Weaker (2)1.001.501.002.001.001.00
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-311D10W00D30W20W11D20W10W01L10WH·RUD03/03A·BRI11/03H·NAF17/03A·TRI24/03H·FUŽ01/04A·BIS10/04H·BEL16/04A·DEK21/04H·DOB29/04A·BIL03/05
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.110.460.860.431.360.50
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (15)1.270.470.860.571.620.38
vs Weaker (13)0.920.460.860.291.000.67
Clean sheet %61% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Primorje) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

PrimorjePrimorje

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
40-400D11D11D00D00D10W00D20W01L40WH·BIS04/03A·BEL12/03H·DEK19/03A·DOB26/03H·BIL01/04A·RUD10/04A·KRK14/04H·KRŠ22/04A·ILI29/04H·ROG03/05
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.820.711.140.860.500.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (26)0.770.731.080.920.460.54
vs Weaker (2)1.500.502.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Primorje over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Over 1.571.9%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
Aluminij's squad is €3m more valuable than Primorje's (€4m vs €1m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
Aluminij's attack is €1m more valuable than Primorje's (€2m vs €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
Aluminij and Primorje have a similar midfield value (both €1m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
Aluminij's defence is €1m more valuable than Primorje's (€2m vs €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
ALU wins
0
Draws
0
PRI wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs Primorje · H/A from ALU
DateH/AGameScore
30/10/22APrimorje Vs ALU0-1

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/23ABilje Vs ALU1-3
29/04/23HALU Vs Dob3-1
21/04/23ADekani Vs ALU0-2
16/04/23HALU Vs Beltinci2-0
10/04/23ABistrica Vs ALU1-1
01/04/23HALU Vs Fužinar4-0
24/03/23ATriglav Vs ALU0-4
17/03/23HALU Vs Nafta1-1
11/03/23ABrinje-Grosuplje Vs ALU0-2
03/03/23HALU Vs Rudar2-2

PrimorjePrimorje

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
03/05/23HPRI Vs Rogaška4-2
29/04/23AIlirija Vs PRI1-0
22/04/23HPRI Vs Krško3-2
14/04/23AKrka Vs PRI1-0
10/04/23ARudar Vs PRI0-2
01/04/23HPRI Vs Bilje0-0
26/03/23ADob Vs PRI4-1
19/03/23HPRI Vs Dekani2-2
12/03/23ABeltinci Vs PRI1-1
04/03/23HPRI Vs Bistrica2-0

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.25
HomeDDWWW2.00
AwayWWDWW2.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %68%57%79%
AVG goals2.712.572.86
Over 1.5 %71%71%71%
Over 2.5 %50%50%50%
Over 3.5 %46%43%50%
Scored2.001.932.07
Conceded0.710.640.79
BTTS46%43%50%
Clean Sheet50%50%50%
Corners---
Cards---
Primorje
Primorje
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLWLW1.32
HomeWDDWW1.21
AwayDLWLL1.43
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%29%36%
AVG goals2.823.362.29
Over 1.5 %71%79%64%
Over 2.5 %46%64%29%
Over 3.5 %36%50%21%
Scored1.431.641.21
Conceded1.391.711.07
BTTS57%64%50%
Clean Sheet21%14%29%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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