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Aluminij vs Rogaška Result & Analysis

Date: 25/11/2022
Time: 15:00
Final 1-2
Aluminij
Aluminij
Vs
36%
36%
29%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Rogaška
Rogaška
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aluminij win✗ Miss
35.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
35.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Rogaška win✓ Hit
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-431W10W22D41W23L40W10W00D20W32WH·BIS23/09A·FUŽ28/09A·BEL02/10H·DEK07/10A·DOB14/10H·BIL21/10A·PRI30/10H·KRK04/11H·KRŠ13/11A·ILI19/11
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.820.711.750.381.891.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.500.621.330.671.600.60
vs Weaker (9)2.110.782.000.202.251.50
Clean sheet %53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-520W31W10W30W21W11D20W21W10W53WA·BIS19/09H·BEL25/09A·DEK02/10H·DOB08/10A·BIL16/10H·PRI22/10A·KRK28/10H·KRŠ05/11H·ILI12/11H·RUD19/11
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
0.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.820.762.331.221.250.25
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.570.861.751.501.330.00
vs Weaker (10)2.000.702.801.001.200.40
Clean sheet %47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

7%14%21%28%18%027%128%216%37%43%51%6+
The model estimates around 1.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
54.9%
Under 1.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
26.8%
Under 2.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
10.8%
Under 3.5
89.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
36.3%
No
63.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
17.9%
1-1
14.7%
1-0
14.6%
0-1
12.6%
2-0
7.6%
2-1
6.4%
0-2
5.8%
1-2 ✓
5.6%
Aluminij goals ↓
Rogaška goals →
01234
018%13%5.8%1.6%0.3%
115%15%5.6%1.6%0.3%
27.6%6.4%2.7%0.7%0.2%
32.4%2.0%0.9%0.2%0.0%
40.6%0.5%0.2%0.1%0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aluminij goals (down), columns = Rogaška goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Rogaška
2.27
Aluminij
2.13
Ilirija
1.80
Krka
1.77
Beltinci
1.47
Primorje
1.37
Nafta
1.37
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.27
Bilje
1.23
Bistrica
1.23
Dekani
1.17
Triglav
1.17
Rudar
1.07
Fužinar
1.03
Krško
0.80
Dob
0.70
Aluminij is 0.13 points worse than Rogaška in terms of average points per game (2.13 vs 2.27).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Aluminij
1.93
Ilirija
1.83
Rogaška
1.73
Nafta
1.67
Beltinci
1.57
Krka
1.53
Primorje
1.40
Rudar
1.37
Bilje
1.33
Fužinar
1.30
Bistrica
1.30
Dob
1.23
Krško
1.20
Triglav
1.10
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.00
Dekani
0.90
Aluminij is 0.20 goals better than Rogaška in terms of goals scored per game (1.93 vs 1.73).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Rogaška
0.77
Aluminij
0.77
Krka
0.93
Dekani
0.97
Ilirija
1.00
Brinje-Grosuplje
1.23
Primorje
1.33
Bistrica
1.33
Nafta
1.43
Beltinci
1.50
Rudar
1.70
Triglav
1.73
Bilje
1.77
Fužinar
1.87
Krško
1.97
Dob
2.10
Aluminij and Rogaška are level in goals conceded per game (both 0.77).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-210W00D01L21W21W10W00D00D20W11DH·BIS23/09A·FUŽ28/09A·BEL02/10H·DEK07/10A·DOB14/10H·BIL21/10A·PRI30/10H·KRK04/11H·KRŠ13/11A·ILI19/11
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.710.240.880.120.560.33
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.250.120.670.000.000.20
vs Weaker (9)1.110.331.000.201.250.50
Clean sheet %76% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W11D10W20W10W01L20W10W10W23LA·BIS19/09H·BEL25/09A·DEK02/10H·DOB08/10A·BIL16/10H·PRI22/10A·KRK28/10H·KRŠ05/11H·ILI12/11H·RUD19/11
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.880.471.110.780.620.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)0.570.430.750.750.330.00
vs Weaker (10)1.100.501.400.800.800.20
Clean sheet %65% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AluminijAluminij

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-321W10W21W20W02L30W10W00D00D21WH·BIS23/09A·FUŽ28/09A·BEL02/10H·DEK07/10A·DOB14/10H·BIL21/10A·PRI30/10H·KRK04/11H·KRŠ13/11A·ILI19/11
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.120.470.880.251.330.67
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.250.500.670.671.600.40
vs Weaker (9)1.000.441.000.001.001.00
Clean sheet %59% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Rogaška) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

RogaškaRogaška

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-310W20W00D10W11D10W00D11D00D30WA·BIS19/09H·BEL25/09A·DEK02/10H·DOB08/10A·BIL16/10H·PRI22/10A·KRK28/10H·KRŠ05/11H·ILI12/11H·RUD19/11
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.2
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.940.291.220.440.620.12
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (7)1.000.431.000.751.000.00
vs Weaker (10)0.900.201.400.200.400.20
Clean sheet %76% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Aluminij) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Aluminij over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aluminij over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Rogaška over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Under 3.589.2%-------✓ Hit
Under 2.573.2%-------✗ Miss

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (24)
€4m
BRI (24)
€3m
NAF (18)
€2m
TRI (19)
€2m
BEL (17)
€2m
ILI (15)
€1m
DEK (18)
€1m
BIL (17)
€1m
RUD (17)
€1m
KRK (12)
€1m
BIS (14)
€1m
PRI (10)
€1m
KRŠ (13)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (9)
€2m
NAF (8)
€1m
BRI (7)
€1m
BEL (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
ILI (7)
€1m
BIL (5)
€1m
KRK (5)
€0m
BIS (6)
€0m
DEK (3)
€0m
KRŠ (4)
€0m
RUD (3)
€0m
PRI (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BRI (7)
€1m
ALU (5)
€1m
RUD (8)
€1m
TRI (5)
€0m
DEK (6)
€0m
BEL (3)
€0m
PRI (2)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
NAF (2)
€0m
ILI (2)
€0m
BIL (4)
€0m
KRK (1)
€0m
KRŠ (1)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ALU (10)
€2m
BRI (10)
€1m
NAF (8)
€1m
TRI (7)
€1m
KRK (6)
€1m
BEL (6)
€1m
BIL (8)
€1m
DEK (9)
€1m
RUD (6)
€0m
ILI (6)
€0m
KRŠ (8)
€0m
PRI (5)
€0m
BIS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

1 previous meeting
1
ALU wins
0
Draws
0
ROG wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Aluminij vs Rogaška · H/A from ALU
DateH/AGameScore
13/08/22ARogaška Vs ALU0-1

AluminijAluminij

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/11/22AIlirija Vs ALU2-3
13/11/22HALU Vs Krško2-0
04/11/22HALU Vs Krka0-0
30/10/22APrimorje Vs ALU0-1
21/10/22HALU Vs Bilje4-0
14/10/22ADob Vs ALU3-2
07/10/22HALU Vs Dekani4-1
02/10/22ABeltinci Vs ALU2-2
28/09/22AFužinar Vs ALU0-1
23/09/22HALU Vs Bistrica3-1

RogaškaRogaška

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
19/11/22HROG Vs Rudar5-3
12/11/22HROG Vs Ilirija1-0
05/11/22HROG Vs Krško2-1
28/10/22AKrka Vs ROG0-2
22/10/22HROG Vs Primorje1-1
16/10/22ABilje Vs ROG1-2
08/10/22HROG Vs Dob3-0
02/10/22ADekani Vs ROG0-1
25/09/22HROG Vs Beltinci3-1
19/09/22ABistrica Vs ROG0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aluminij
Aluminij
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 7 Wins / 2 Draws / 1 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWDWW2.29
HomeWWWDW2.12
AwayWDLWW2.44
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%62%78%
AVG goals2.532.122.89
Over 1.5 %53%50%56%
Over 2.5 %47%38%56%
Over 3.5 %47%38%56%
Scored1.821.751.89
Conceded0.710.381.00
BTTS41%25%56%
Clean Sheet53%62%44%
Corners---
Cards---
Rogaška
Rogaška
Slovenia: 2. SNL
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallDWWWW2.35
HomeWDWWW2.22
AwayWWWWW2.50
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%67%75%
AVG goals2.593.561.50
Over 1.5 %65%78%50%
Over 2.5 %41%67%12%
Over 3.5 %24%44%0%
Scored1.822.331.25
Conceded0.761.220.25
BTTS47%67%25%
Clean Sheet47%22%75%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1RogaškaRogaška3068
70%
2.3
5223+29
2.5
67%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.8
-
2AluminijAluminij3064
63%
2.1
5823+35
2.7
70%
50%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2121.90.8
-
3IlirijaIlirija3054
53%
1.8
5530+25
2.8
77%
50%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.81.0
-
4KrkaKrka3053
47%
1.8
4628+18
2.5
70%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.50.9
-
5BeltinciBeltinci3044
40%
1.5
4745+2
3.1
90%
60%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.61.5
-
6NaftaNafta3041
37%
1.4
5043+7
3.1
83%
60%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.4
-
7PrimorjePrimorje3041
33%
1.4
4240+2
2.7
70%
43%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.3
-
8Brinje-GrosupljeBrinje-Grosuplje3038
37%
1.3
3037-7
2.2
73%
23%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
3
1111.01.2
-
9BistricaBistrica3037
30%
1.2
3940-1
2.6
80%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.31.3
-
10BiljeBilje3037
33%
1.2
4053-13
3.1
77%
63%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1011.31.8
-
11DekaniDekani3035
23%
1.2
2729-2
1.9
53%
27%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.91.0
-
12TriglavTriglav3035
33%
1.2
3352-19
2.8
80%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.11.7
-
13RudarRudar3032
23%
1.1
4151-10
3.1
83%
57%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0101.41.7
-
14FužinarFužinar3031
27%
1.0
3956-17
3.2
80%
63%
50%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.31.9
-
15KrškoKrško3024
20%
0.8
3659-23
3.2
80%
67%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.22.0
-
16DobDob3021
13%
0.7
3763-26
3.3
87%
70%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.22.1
-
Slovenia: 2. SNL 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Slovenia: 2. SNL stats & trends →

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