Amed’s recent loss to Kocaelispor has left the home side rattled, while Trabzonspor’s 0-4 defeat at Ferencvarosi TC suggests defensive frailties at home. The model therefore favours a home win, assigning a 47% chance to Amed, 27% to a draw and 26% to Trabzonspor. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most likely total of two goals at 25%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.8% probability. Amed’s home form shows they average 2.09 goals scored and concede 1.27 against weaker opposition, whereas Trabzonspor’s away form is similar, scoring 2.09 and conceding 1.27. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.6%), Under 6.5 (98.5% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.5% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.9% with a 9% edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (95.7% with a 6% edge), Home under 3.5 goals (93.6%) and Away under 2.5 HT goals (93.4% with a 1% edge).
Results analysis
Amed’s win extends their recent run, while Trabzonspor come off two straight defeats. The final score was 2-1, confirming a home win, the very result the model predicted. The pre-match favourite was Home win with a 45% probability, and the model’s call was correct. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.6%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.5%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.9%, Home under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.3%, Under 5.5 hit at 95.7%, Home under 3.5 goals hit at 93.6%, and Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 93.4%. The model’s selections performed strongly across the board.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Amed win✓ Hit
45.1%
Avg Implied 27.4% · @ 3.42
Edge
+17.8%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.62
1xBet
3.60
Unibet
3.55
Marathonbet
3.46
Superbet
3.45
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied 26.0% · @ 3.60
Edge
+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.74
Dafabet
3.70
Pinnacle
3.69
10Bet
3.65
Trabzonspor win✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 46.6% · @ 2.01
Edge
-18.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.06
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
2.05
Dafabet
2.04
SBO
2.01
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Amed
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.97
1.07
2.43
0.57
1.56
1.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
1.37
1.00
1.88
0.50
1.00
1.36
vs Weaker (11)
3.00
1.18
3.17
0.67
2.80
1.80
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Trabzonspor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trabzonspor
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.80
1.30
1.57
1.29
2.00
1.31
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
2.00
2.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.67
1.44
1.50
1.50
1.80
1.40
vs Weaker (19)
1.84
1.16
1.50
1.00
2.09
1.27
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Amed) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
@ 1.20-0.4%
Under 1.5
22.2%
@ 4.27+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
Under
Pinnacle
4.49
Superbet
4.45
10Bet
4.33
Betfair
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.68-3.7%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 2.17+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.73
Betano
1.72
Pinnacle
1.71
Marathonbet
1.68
Superbet
1.68
Under
Pinnacle
2.22
SBO
2.21
Betfair
2.20
10Bet
2.20
Superbet
2.20
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
@ 2.67-4.6%
Under 3.5
69.6%
@ 1.44+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.80
BetVictor
2.75
Pinnacle
2.73
Betfair
2.70
Superbet
2.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.48
10Bet
1.48
Superbet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Betfair
1.44
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.7%
@ 1.57-2.3%
No
43.3%
@ 2.26+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Superbet
1.60
BetVictor
1.57
Unibet
1.57
No
Betfair
2.45
10Bet
2.30
1xBet
2.28
William Hil
2.25
BetVictor
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%@ 6.58+6.1%
2-1 ✓
9.3%@ 10.68+5.1%
1-0
8.6%@ 11.43+4.7%
2-0
7.8%@ 17.97+5.3%
0-0
7.4%@ 12.40+3.7%
1-2
7.0%@ 7.87+1.3%
0-1
6.2%@ 8.33+0.8%
2-2
5.6%@ 11.55+1.7%
Amed goals ↓
Trabzonspor goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
6.2%
4.4%
1.8%
0.5%
1
8.6%
13%
7.0%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.8%
9.3%
5.6%
2.2%
0.7%
3
4.1%
4.9%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.2%
0.5%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Amed goals (down), columns = Trabzonspor goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Galatasaray
2.26
Fenerbahçe
2.18
Trabzonspor
2.03
Beşiktaş
1.76
Başakşehir
1.68
Göztepe
1.62
Samsunspor
1.50
Rizespor
1.21
Konyaspor
1.18
Gaziantep FK
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.09
Alanyaspor
1.09
Amed
1.05
Kasımpaşa
1.03
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.00
Eyüpspor
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.96
Çorum FK
0.95
Amed is 0.98 points worse than Trabzonspor in terms of average points per game (1.05 vs 2.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Fenerbahçe
2.26
Galatasaray
2.26
Trabzonspor
1.79
Beşiktaş
1.74
Başakşehir
1.71
Samsunspor
1.35
Rizespor
1.35
Gaziantep FK
1.26
Konyaspor
1.26
Göztepe
1.24
Alanyaspor
1.21
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.06
Amed
1.03
Eyüpspor
0.97
Kasımpaşa
0.97
Erzurumspor FK
0.94
Çorum FK
0.93
Kocaelispor
0.76
Amed is 0.76 goals worse than Trabzonspor in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.79).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Galatasaray
0.88
Göztepe
0.94
Başakşehir
1.03
Fenerbahçe
1.09
Kocaelispor
1.12
Trabzonspor
1.15
Beşiktaş
1.18
Alanyaspor
1.21
Samsunspor
1.32
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1.38
Eyüpspor
1.41
Kasımpaşa
1.44
Konyaspor
1.47
Rizespor
1.53
Gaziantep FK
1.71
Amed
1.71
Erzurumspor FK
1.88
Çorum FK
1.89
Amed is 0.56 goals worse than Trabzonspor in terms of goals conceded per game (1.71 vs 1.15).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Galatasaray
62%
Fenerbahçe
59%
Beşiktaş
56%
Trabzonspor
55%
Başakşehir
54%
Samsunspor
54%
Konyaspor
52%
Rizespor
50%
Gaziantep FK
50%
Kocaelispor
50%
Alanyaspor
48%
Eyüpspor
48%
Kasımpaşa
44%
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
43%
Göztepe
38%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Amed
For 8.1 · Against 3.2 · Total 11.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Trabzonspor
For 5.6 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 3.3 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.7 · Against 17.0 · Total 28.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Amed
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
10.1
8.1
4.5
4.4
4.7
22.3
20.5
24.0
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
9.2
9.9
8.5
4.8
4.7
4.9
22.5
20.5
24.7
vs Weaker (21)
8.8
10.4
7.6
4.2
3.9
4.4
22.0
20.3
23.3
% over line
37%
46%
28%
64%
62%
65%
51%
42%
60%
% under line
63%
54%
72%
36%
38%
35%
49%
58%
40%
This opponent (Trabzonspor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trabzonspor
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.7
10.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
26.6
26.4
26.8
vs Stronger (5)
12.0
13.5
10.5
5.6
6.0
5.0
27.0
28.5
25.5
vs Similar (12)
10.5
10.7
10.4
5.1
5.7
4.5
26.1
24.0
28.6
vs Weaker (33)
9.2
8.5
9.8
3.3
2.9
3.6
26.8
27.3
26.4
% over line
49%
45%
52%
48%
48%
48%
81%
85%
78%
% under line
51%
55%
48%
52%
52%
52%
19%
15%
22%
This opponent (Amed) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Fenerbahçe
11.1
Beşiktaş
10.3
Başakşehir
9.7
Samsunspor
9.7
Trabzonspor
9.6
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
9.6
Konyaspor
9.6
Gaziantep FK
9.5
Göztepe
9.4
Rizespor
9.3
Çorum FK
9.2
Amed
9.0
Galatasaray
8.9
Kasımpaşa
8.9
Eyüpspor
8.9
Erzurumspor FK
8.5
Kocaelispor
8.3
Alanyaspor
7.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Gaziantep FK
5.8
Fenerbahçe
5.6
Çorum FK
5.0
Kasımpaşa
5.0
Konyaspor
5.0
Başakşehir
5.0
Göztepe
5.0
Beşiktaş
5.0
Eyüpspor
4.9
Amed
4.9
Alanyaspor
4.9
Kocaelispor
4.8
Erzurumspor FK
4.7
Trabzonspor
4.7
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4.5
Galatasaray
4.5
Samsunspor
4.4
Rizespor
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Gaziantep FK
28.9
Kasımpaşa
27.7
Kocaelispor
27.4
Alanyaspor
27.1
Başakşehir
26.9
Göztepe
26.6
Eyüpspor
26.6
Trabzonspor
26.4
Samsunspor
26.2
Rizespor
26.1
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
25.5
Beşiktaş
25.4
Fenerbahçe
25.3
Konyaspor
24.8
Galatasaray
23.5
Erzurumspor FK
23.5
Çorum FK
23.0
Amed
22.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
58.4%
@ 1.87+8.6%
Under 9.5
41.6%
@ 1.86-8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Pinnacle
1.87
Betano
1.87
10Bet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Bet365
1.90
1xBet
1.89
Betano
1.87
Superbet
1.85
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
67.6%
@ 1.47+4.7%
Under 3.5
32.4%
@ 2.48-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.49
Betano
1.44
Under
Betano
2.67
Superbet
2.30
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
72.9%
Under 21.5
27.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Amed or Draw✓ Hit
75.2%
Avg Implied 52.8% · @ 1.78
Edge
+22.4%
45%
27%
28%
covers Amed + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.82
Betano
1.82
William Hil
1.80
Bet365
1.80
SBO
1.80
Amed or Trabzonspor✓ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied 74.6% · @ 1.26
Edge
-3.1%
45%
27%
28%
covers Amed + Trabzonspor
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Draw or Trabzonspor✗ Miss
53.3%
Avg Implied 72.6% · @ 1.29
Edge
-19.3%
45%
27%
28%
covers Draw + Trabzonspor
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.33
1xBet
1.32
Superbet
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Bet365
1.30
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Amed over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.5%
@ 1.32+7.1%
Under
22.5%
@ 3.13-7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.20
Superbet
3.15
Amed over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.9%
@ 2.59+7.9%
Under
56.1%
@ 1.46-7.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.74
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Marathonbet
2.61
1xBet
2.61
Under
Pinnacle
1.49
10Bet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Superbet
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Amed over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.9%
@ 6.18+3.8%
Under
81.1%
@ 1.09-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
7.00
1xBet
6.60
Marathonbet
6.60
Betfair
6.00
BetVictor
6.00
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Amed over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
@ 14.83-0.0%
Under
93.6%
@ 1.02+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
Trabzonspor over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
64.1%
@ 1.16-15.9%
Under
35.9%
@ 4.64+15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Bet365
1.18
Superbet
1.17
10Bet
1.17
BetVictor
1.15
Under
Betfair
5.00
1xBet
4.80
BetVictor
4.75
Superbet
4.65
10Bet
4.50
Trabzonspor over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
27.3%
@ 1.83-23.6%
Under
72.7%
@ 1.90+23.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.86
1xBet
1.86
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
2.00
Betfair
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
10Bet
1.90
Trabzonspor over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 3.64-17.1%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.25+17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.75
Betfair
3.75
BetVictor
3.70
Pinnacle
3.66
1xBet
3.65
Under
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Trabzonspor over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 8.38-9.1%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.05+9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
Betfair
8.50
1xBet
8.40
Marathonbet
8.40
Superbet
7.90
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Amed, so a minus line means Amed give that many goals of a start and Trabzonspor receive them. At -1, Amed must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Amed win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Amed)Actual: Trabzonspor
Amed -2
9.5%
@ 17.25+4.2%
Draw -2
14.5%
@ 9.65+5.0%
Trabzonspor +2
76.0%
@ 1.07-9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
20.00
Bet365
19.00
Superbet
15.00
10Bet
15.00
Draw
Betfair
11.00
Bet365
11.00
Superbet
8.60
10Bet
8.00
Away
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
Handicap -1 (Amed)Actual: Draw
Amed -1
24.0%
@ 7.38+11.8%
Draw -1
22.7%
@ 5.15+5.1%
Trabzonspor +1
53.3%
@ 1.29-16.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Marathonbet
7.40
Unibet
7.00
10Bet
6.50
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.35
Betfair
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Unibet
4.90
Away
10Bet
1.30
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Handicap +1 (Amed)Actual: Amed
Amed +1
75.2%
@ 1.77+24.5%
Draw +1
15.2%
@ 3.79-8.4%
Trabzonspor -1
9.6%
@ 3.50-16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.80
Unibet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.77
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
3.84
Superbet
3.80
10Bet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Away
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.50
10Bet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
Superbet
3.45
Handicap +2 (Amed)Actual: Amed
Amed +2
90.4%
@ 1.25+18.3%
Draw +2
6.9%
@ 5.71-8.9%
Trabzonspor -2
2.7%
@ 7.43-9.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
Draw
Marathonbet
6.00
Bet365
6.00
Betfair
6.00
10Bet
5.50
Superbet
5.45
Away
Betfair
8.50
Bet365
8.00
10Bet
7.50
Marathonbet
7.30
Superbet
6.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Amed
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.53
1.00
0.21
0.81
0.81
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.42
0.62
0.12
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (11)
1.64
0.73
1.50
0.33
1.80
1.20
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Trabzonspor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trabzonspor
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.70
0.50
0.79
0.69
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
1.00
1.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
0.56
0.78
0.50
1.25
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (19)
0.53
0.63
0.25
0.50
0.73
0.73
Clean sheet %
47% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Amed) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.9%
@ 1.31-1.2%
Under 0.5
30.1%
@ 3.22+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Bet365
1.33
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Under
William Hil
3.30
Betfair
3.30
BetVictor
3.25
Superbet
3.25
Bet365
3.25
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.9%
@ 2.47-2.8%
Under 1.5
65.1%
@ 1.50+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.60
Betfair
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
Bet365
2.50
1xBet
2.47
Under
Superbet
1.53
Pinnacle
1.52
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
William Hil
1.50
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.3%
@ 5.91-1.4%
Under 2.5
85.7%
@ 1.10+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.00
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Under
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Amed over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.2%
@ 2.18-7.5%
Under
64.8%
@ 1.62+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.28
Betano
2.22
Superbet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.16
1xBet
2.16
Under
10Bet
1.67
Pinnacle
1.64
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Amed over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.6%
@ 7.30-4.1%
Under
91.4%
@ 1.06+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.10
1xBet
8.00
10Bet
7.00
Superbet
6.80
Betano
6.60
Under
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
Amed over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.5%
@ 18.25-3.8%
Under
98.5%
@ 1.01+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Trabzonspor over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.5%
@ 1.76+1.8%
Under
45.5%
@ 1.96-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.82
Pinnacle
1.79
10Bet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.75
1xBet
1.75
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
10Bet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.94
Trabzonspor over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
19.5%
@ 4.88+0.5%
Under
80.5%
@ 1.14-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.10
1xBet
5.10
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Superbet
4.65
Under
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
Trabzonspor over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.6%
@ 12.25-1.1%
Under
93.4%
@ 1.02+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Amed
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.53
1.43
0.36
0.75
0.69
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (19)
0.89
0.58
1.25
0.38
0.64
0.73
vs Weaker (11)
1.36
0.45
1.67
0.33
1.00
0.60
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Trabzonspor) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Trabzonspor
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
0.60
1.07
0.50
1.31
0.69
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (9)
1.11
0.67
1.00
0.25
1.20
1.00
vs Weaker (19)
1.32
0.53
1.25
0.50
1.36
0.55
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Amed) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
80.7%
@ 1.18+1.7%
Under 0.5
19.3%
@ 4.43-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.15
Under
10Bet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.55
1xBet
4.55
Betano
4.40
Superbet
4.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.3%
@ 1.88-3.3%
Under 1.5
53.7%
@ 1.85+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.88
Marathonbet
1.88
Under
10Bet
1.91
Betano
1.88
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.86
William Hil
1.83
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
25.1%
@ 3.75+0.4%
Under 2.5
74.9%
@ 1.23-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
4.00
William Hil
3.80
Superbet
3.80
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Under
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Amed over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
45.4%
@ 1.84-5.0%
Under
54.6%
@ 1.87+5.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
Superbet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Betano
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Amed over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.9%
@ 5.09-6.3%
Under
88.1%
@ 1.13+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.50
1xBet
5.30
Superbet
5.10
Betano
4.80
10Bet
4.75
Under
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
Amed over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 13.25-4.4%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.02+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
10.50
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
Trabzonspor over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
65.5%
@ 1.53+4.8%
Under
34.5%
@ 2.36-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.42
1xBet
2.34
Superbet
2.32
Trabzonspor over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
28.3%
@ 3.47+1.6%
Under
71.7%
@ 1.26-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.48
10Bet
3.40
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
Trabzonspor over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
6.8%
@ 8.97-3.5%
Under
93.2%
@ 1.04+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.30
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Superbet
1.02
Betano
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Bet365
1.01
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.8%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.9%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
1xBet
1.02
+9.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.3%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
BetVictor
1.03
+5.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
93.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
-
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
93.4%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+1.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
93.2%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+3.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
91.5%
1.25
Pinnacle
1.28
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.25
+17.1%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.4%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Superbet
1.07
10Bet
1.07
1xBet
1.04
Marathonbet
1.04
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
90.4%
1.25
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Unibet
1.26
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.22
+18.3%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.9%
1.16
10Bet
1.18
Pinnacle
1.18
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+8.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.1%
1.13
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Superbet
1.13
1xBet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.10
+6.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.7%
1.10
Betano
1.13
Superbet
1.13
William Hil
1.12
Bet365
1.12
10Bet
1.11
+1.4%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
81.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.11
Betfair
1.10
Bet365
1.10
10Bet
1.10
-3.8%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.7%
1.18
Bet365
1.20
Betano
1.20
William Hil
1.20
Superbet
1.19
10Bet
1.15
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
80.5%
1.14
Superbet
1.16
Betano
1.16
10Bet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.12
1xBet
1.12
-0.5%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
77.8%
1.20
Betano
1.24
Pinnacle
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
10Bet
1.20
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
77.5%
1.32
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Unibet
1.33
Superbet
1.33
Bet365
1.33
+7.1%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
76.0%
1.07
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
10Bet
1.07
Betfair
1.06
-
-9.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
74.9%
1.23
Betano
1.27
10Bet
1.25
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
William Hil
1.22
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
72.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
71.7%
1.26
Betano
1.29
10Bet
1.28
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Superbet
1.25
-1.6%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
71.5%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Superbet
1.28
Betano
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
-3.1%
✓ Hit
Over 8.5 corners
70.5%
1.51
Unibet
1.57
Superbet
1.54
Betano
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Marathonbet
1.47
+9.6%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Amed
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dia Saba33%
Gökhan Gül33%
Yira Collins Sor33%
Gift Orban33%
Mbaye Diagne0%
Lumbardh Dellova0%
Rayan Raveloson0%
David Robert Bates0%
Alban Lafont0%
Umut Meraş0%
Mehmet Yeşil0%
Samuel Ballet0%
Ermal Krasniqi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lumbardh Dellova33%
Rayan Raveloson33%
Alban Lafont33%
Umut Meraş33%
Samuel Ballet33%
Ermal Krasniqi33%
Gift Orban33%
Mbaye Diagne0%
Dia Saba0%
David Robert Bates0%
Gökhan Gül0%
Mehmet Yeşil0%
Yira Collins Sor0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lumbardh Dellova33%
Mehmet Yeşil33%
Samuel Ballet33%
Gift Orban33%
Mbaye Diagne0%
Dia Saba0%
Rayan Raveloson0%
David Robert Bates0%
Gökhan Gül0%
Alban Lafont0%
Umut Meraş0%
Yira Collins Sor0%
Ermal Krasniqi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mbaye Diagne33%
Yira Collins Sor33%
Dia Saba0%
Lumbardh Dellova0%
Rayan Raveloson0%
David Robert Bates0%
Gökhan Gül0%
Alban Lafont0%
Umut Meraş0%
Mehmet Yeşil0%
Samuel Ballet0%
Ermal Krasniqi0%
Gift Orban0%
Trabzonspor
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mohamed Salah67%
Noah Saviolo33%
Stefan Savić0%
André Onana0%
Paul Onuachu0%
Ozan Tufan0%
Mustafa Eskihellaç0%
Melih Kabasakal0%
Aral Şimşir0%
Sidny Lopes Cabral0%
Chibuike Nwaiwu0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Stefan Savić67%
Chibuike Nwaiwu67%
Mohamed Salah33%
Sidny Lopes Cabral33%
André Onana0%
Paul Onuachu0%
Ozan Tufan0%
Mustafa Eskihellaç0%
Melih Kabasakal0%
Aral Şimşir0%
Noah Saviolo0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefan Savić0%
Mohamed Salah0%
André Onana0%
Paul Onuachu0%
Ozan Tufan0%
Mustafa Eskihellaç0%
Melih Kabasakal0%
Aral Şimşir0%
Sidny Lopes Cabral0%
Chibuike Nwaiwu0%
Noah Saviolo0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mohamed Salah33%
Paul Onuachu33%
Stefan Savić0%
André Onana0%
Ozan Tufan0%
Mustafa Eskihellaç0%
Melih Kabasakal0%
Aral Şimşir0%
Sidny Lopes Cabral0%
Chibuike Nwaiwu0%
Noah Saviolo0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (29)
€345m
FEN (39)
€332m
BEŞ (34)
€202m
TRA (31)
€168m
BAŞ (32)
€77m
GÖZ (26)
€61m
SAM (30)
€50m
ÇF (28)
€47m
RIZ (24)
€44m
ALA (29)
€38m
KON (26)
€33m
KAS (31)
€31m
GF (28)
€28m
AME (22)
€27m
EF (26)
€26m
KOC (26)
€24m
GS (19)
€15m
EYÜ (24)
€14m
Amed's squad is €141m less valuable than Trabzonspor's (€27m vs €168m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (9)
€173m
FEN (14)
€162m
BEŞ (11)
€70m
TRA (11)
€67m
BAŞ (13)
€40m
GÖZ (10)
€30m
SAM (12)
€20m
AME (7)
€15m
KAS (13)
€14m
GF (14)
€14m
KON (10)
€13m
RIZ (8)
€12m
ÇF (9)
€12m
EF (9)
€10m
ALA (11)
€9m
KOC (8)
€9m
EYÜ (10)
€5m
GS (4)
€4m
Amed's attack is €52m less valuable than Trabzonspor's (€15m vs €67m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
GAL (7)
€72m
FEN (7)
€62m
BEŞ (9)
€50m
TRA (9)
€38m
GÖZ (7)
€19m
ALA (9)
€18m
ÇF (7)
€14m
SAM (6)
€12m
BAŞ (6)
€10m
KOC (8)
€9m
GF (5)
€8m
EF (4)
€7m
RIZ (4)
€7m
GS (6)
€5m
KAS (7)
€4m
KON (4)
€4m
AME (4)
€3m
EYÜ (4)
€2m
Amed's midfield is €35m less valuable than Trabzonspor's (€3m vs €38m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FEN (18)
€108m
GAL (13)
€100m
BEŞ (14)
€82m
TRA (11)
€63m
BAŞ (13)
€28m
RIZ (12)
€25m
ÇF (12)
€21m
SAM (12)
€18m
KON (12)
€16m
KAS (11)
€12m
GÖZ (9)
€12m
ALA (9)
€11m
AME (11)
€9m
EF (13)
€8m
KOC (10)
€7m
EYÜ (10)
€7m
GF (9)
€6m
GS (9)
€5m
Amed's defence is €53m less valuable than Trabzonspor's (€9m vs €63m).
Turkey: Süper Lig 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Turkey: Süper Lig stats & trends →
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Galatasaray
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Beşiktaş
Fenerbahçe
Kocaelispor
Rizespor
Kasımpaşa
Başakşehir
Samsunspor
Alanyaspor
Gaziantep FK
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Çorum FK
Erzurumspor FK
Konyaspor