Ammanford AFC, still rattled after a 0-5 loss to Cardiff MET, faces Caernarfon Town, who are returning from a 2-3 defeat to The New Saints. The model sees Caernarfon as the clear favourite, assigning a 77% chance of victory and a 15% chance of a draw, while Ammanford’s home win probability sits at only 8%. The expected total goals is 3.4, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most probable scoreline is 0-2 for Caernarfon, with a 11.7% probability. Ammanford averages 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded at home against stronger opposition, whereas Caernarfon, playing away against weaker sides, averages 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Suggested picks include Home under 3.5 goals (99.3%), Home under 2.5 2H goals (98.5%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.4%), Away +2 handicap (97.8%), Under 7.5 (97.7%), Home under 2.5 goals (95.9%), Home under 1.5 HT goals (94.4%), and Under 6.5 (94.1%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ammanford AFC win
7.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
15.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town win
77.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ammanford AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.20
1.53
1.20
1.60
1.20
vs Stronger (22)
1.77
1.23
1.55
1.18
2.00
1.27
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.12
1.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.30
2.12
1.50
1.71
1.07
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
2.75
1.00
3.50
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (24)
2.12
1.12
2.29
1.21
1.90
1.00
vs Weaker (2)
2.00
0.50
-
-
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.1%
Under 1.5
13.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.3%
Under 2.5
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.5%
Under 3.5
55.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-2
11.7%
0-3
10.3%
1-2
8.8%
0-1
8.1%
1-3
7.8%
1-1
7.3%
0-4
6.9%
1-4
5.2%
Ammanford AFC goals ↓
Caernarfon Town goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.0%
8.1%
12%
10%
6.9%
1
1.8%
7.3%
8.8%
7.8%
5.2%
2
0.9%
2.5%
3.3%
2.9%
2.0%
3
0.2%
0.6%
0.8%
0.7%
0.5%
4
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ammanford AFC goals (down), columns = Caernarfon Town goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Ammanford AFC is 1.67 points worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 2.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Ammanford AFC is 1.83 goals worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 2.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Ammanford AFC is 0.83 goals worse than Caernarfon Town in terms of goals conceded per game (2.33 vs 1.50).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ammanford AFC or Draw
22.9%
Avg Implied -
8%
15%
77%
covers Ammanford AFC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC or Caernarfon Town
84.6%
Avg Implied -
8%
15%
77%
covers Ammanford AFC + Caernarfon Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Caernarfon Town
92.5%
Avg Implied -
8%
15%
77%
covers Draw + Caernarfon Town
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5
Over
53.0%
Under
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5
Over
17.5%
Under
82.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 3.5
Over
0.7%
Under
99.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5
Over
93.0%
Under
7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5
Over
49.6%
Under
50.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 3.5
Over
27.7%
Under
72.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ammanford AFC, so a minus line means Ammanford AFC give that many goals of a start and Caernarfon Town receive them. At -1, Ammanford AFC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ammanford AFC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ammanford AFC)
Ammanford AFC -2
0.5%
Draw -2
1.7%
Caernarfon Town +2
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ammanford AFC)
Ammanford AFC -1
2.2%
Draw -1
5.3%
Caernarfon Town +1
92.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ammanford AFC)
Ammanford AFC +1
22.9%
Draw +1
20.4%
Caernarfon Town -1
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ammanford AFC)
Ammanford AFC +2
43.2%
Draw +2
21.7%
Caernarfon Town -2
35.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ammanford AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (22)
0.68
0.45
0.55
0.45
0.82
0.45
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
0.75
1.00
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.60
1.06
0.75
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (24)
0.88
0.54
1.14
0.57
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
79.1%
Under 0.5
20.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
52.5%
Under 1.5
47.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
17.3%
Under 2.5
82.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.2%
Under
94.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.2%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 HT
Over
68.7%
Under
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 HT
Over
34.5%
Under
65.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 HT
Over
15.5%
Under
84.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ammanford AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (22)
1.09
0.77
1.00
0.73
1.18
0.82
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Caernarfon Town) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Caernarfon Town
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.70
1.06
0.75
1.14
0.64
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
1.50
0.50
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (24)
1.25
0.58
1.14
0.64
1.40
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
86.0%
Under 0.5
14.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
54.8%
Under 1.5
45.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
30.4%
Under 2.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
35.9%
Under
64.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
10.2%
Under
89.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 0.5 2H
Over
77.2%
Under
22.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 1.5 2H
Over
40.5%
Under
59.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Caernarfon Town over/under 2.5 2H
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 3.5 goals
99.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
94.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
84.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
84.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
79.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 2H goals
77.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away win
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 1.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
72.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Ammanford AFC's squad is €1m less valuable than Caernarfon Town's (€0m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Ammanford AFC and Caernarfon Town have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Ammanford AFC and Caernarfon Town have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Ammanford AFC and Caernarfon Town have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Barry Town
The New Saints
GAP Connah S Quay FC
Cardiff MET
Llandudno
Penybont
Colwyn Bay
Airbus UK
Cambrian & Clydach
Briton Ferry
Haverfordwest County AFC
Flint Town United
Trefelin
Holywell