Ammanford AFC’s recent form has dipped after a 0-5 loss to Cardiff MET, yet their home attack averages 1.55 goals while conceding 1.18 against stronger opposition. Holywell, still on a five-match losing streak, averages only one goal scored and three conceded away, yet their away side has been weaker than their opponents. The model projects a high-scoring encounter with an expected 3.6 goals, most likely total of three goals at 21%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 9.6% chance. Home win is the favourite, with a 44% probability, draw 23%, and away win 33%. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (96.8%), Under 6.5 (92.5%), Away under 3.5 goals (91.0%), Over 1.5 (88.5%), Home under 3.5 goals (86.7%), Home over 0.5 goals (85.7%), Under 5.5 (84.1%), and Home +2 handicap (83.3%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ammanford AFC win
43.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Holywell win
32.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ammanford AFC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.57
1.20
1.53
1.20
1.60
1.20
vs Stronger (22)
1.77
1.23
1.55
1.18
2.00
1.27
vs Similar (8)
1.00
1.12
1.50
1.25
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.17
2.00
2.79
1.57
1.62
2.38
vs Stronger (11)
2.55
1.36
3.17
0.83
1.80
2.00
vs Similar (15)
2.27
2.20
2.86
2.00
1.75
2.38
vs Weaker (4)
0.75
3.00
0.00
3.00
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
88.5%
Under 1.5
11.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
70.1%
Under 2.5
29.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
49.0%
Under 3.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
70.6%
No
29.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
9.6%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
7.3%
2-2
7.1%
3-1
5.5%
2-0
5.1%
3-2
4.6%
1-0
4.3%
Ammanford AFC goals ↓
Holywell goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.5%
3.6%
3.8%
2.1%
0.9%
1
4.3%
9.6%
7.3%
4.1%
1.7%
2
5.1%
8.5%
7.1%
4.0%
1.7%
3
3.3%
5.5%
4.6%
2.6%
1.1%
4
1.6%
2.7%
2.2%
1.3%
0.5%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ammanford AFC goals (down), columns = Holywell goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Barry Town
3.00
The New Saints
2.67
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.50
Penybont
2.00
Llandudno
2.00
Cardiff MET
2.00
Caernarfon Town
2.00
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Airbus UK
1.50
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Briton Ferry
1.17
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.50
Ammanford AFC
0.33
Flint Town United
0.17
Trefelin
0.17
Holywell
0.00
Ammanford AFC is 0.33 points better than Holywell in terms of average points per game (0.33 vs 0.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Barry Town
2.83
GAP Connah S Quay FC
2.83
The New Saints
2.67
Cardiff MET
2.67
Caernarfon Town
2.50
Llandudno
2.17
Airbus UK
1.83
Penybont
1.67
Holywell
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.33
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Flint Town United
1.00
Briton Ferry
0.83
Ammanford AFC
0.67
Haverfordwest County AFC
0.33
Trefelin
0.33
Ammanford AFC is 0.83 goals worse than Holywell in terms of goals scored per game (0.67 vs 1.50).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
The New Saints
0.50
GAP Connah S Quay FC
0.67
Penybont
0.83
Llandudno
1.17
Barry Town
1.17
Cardiff MET
1.17
Cambrian & Clydach
1.33
Airbus UK
1.50
Caernarfon Town
1.50
Colwyn Bay
1.67
Briton Ferry
1.67
Flint Town United
1.83
Haverfordwest County AFC
2.00
Ammanford AFC
2.33
Trefelin
2.83
Holywell
4.33
Ammanford AFC is 2.00 goals better than Holywell in terms of goals conceded per game (2.33 vs 4.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ammanford AFC or Draw
67.1%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
33%
covers Ammanford AFC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC or Holywell
76.6%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
33%
covers Ammanford AFC + Holywell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Holywell
56.3%
Avg Implied -
44%
23%
33%
covers Draw + Holywell
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5
Over
85.7%
Under
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5
Over
30.9%
Under
69.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 3.5
Over
13.3%
Under
86.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5
Over
81.3%
Under
18.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5
Over
50.0%
Under
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5
Over
23.7%
Under
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 3.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ammanford AFC, so a minus line means Ammanford AFC give that many goals of a start and Holywell receive them. At -1, Ammanford AFC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ammanford AFC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ammanford AFC)
Ammanford AFC -2
11.4%
Draw -2
13.4%
Holywell +2
75.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ammanford AFC)
Ammanford AFC -1
24.8%
Draw -1
18.9%
Holywell +1
56.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ammanford AFC)
Ammanford AFC +1
67.1%
Draw +1
16.2%
Holywell -1
16.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ammanford AFC)
Ammanford AFC +2
83.3%
Draw +2
9.9%
Holywell -2
6.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ammanford AFC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.40
vs Stronger (22)
0.68
0.45
0.55
0.45
0.82
0.45
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.62
0.75
1.00
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.87
1.50
0.71
0.69
1.00
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
0.36
1.83
0.00
0.60
0.80
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.20
1.43
1.29
0.88
1.12
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ammanford AFC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.93
0.60
0.93
0.80
vs Stronger (22)
1.09
0.77
1.00
0.73
1.18
0.82
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.25
0.25
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Holywell) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Holywell
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.13
1.29
0.86
0.94
1.38
vs Stronger (11)
1.27
1.00
1.33
0.83
1.20
1.20
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.00
1.43
0.71
0.88
1.25
vs Weaker (4)
0.50
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.67
2.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Ammanford AFC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ammanford AFC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ammanford AFC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Holywell over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
96.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
92.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
86.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
BTTS Yes
70.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
70.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (25)
€3m
HCA (23)
€1m
PEN (18)
€1m
CB (20)
€1m
CT (16)
€1m
BF (19)
€1m
BT (14)
€1m
GCS (9)
€1m
FTU (10)
€1m
CM (11)
€1m
C&C (4)
€0m
LLA (3)
€0m
HOL (3)
€0m
AA (3)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
Ammanford AFC and Holywell have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (10)
€1m
PEN (8)
€1m
BF (7)
€0m
GCS (5)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CB (5)
€0m
CT (3)
€0m
CM (5)
€0m
FTU (2)
€0m
BT (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
LLA (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Ammanford AFC and Holywell have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (7)
€1m
CB (7)
€0m
HCA (7)
€0m
CT (4)
€0m
BT (5)
€0m
PEN (3)
€0m
CM (2)
€0m
FTU (3)
€0m
BF (2)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
TRE (1)
€0m
AA (2)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
AU (0)
€0m
C&C (0)
€0m
LLA (0)
€0m
Ammanford AFC and Holywell have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
TNS (8)
€1m
HCA (9)
€1m
CT (9)
€1m
BF (10)
€0m
PEN (7)
€0m
BT (7)
€0m
CB (8)
€0m
FTU (5)
€0m
CM (4)
€0m
C&C (4)
€0m
GCS (2)
€0m
LLA (2)
€0m
AU (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
HOL (1)
€0m
TRE (0)
€0m
Ammanford AFC and Holywell have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Wales: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: Premier League stats & trends →