Andranik are clear favourites, their model rating reflecting a 77% chance of victory. The team’s home form is dominant, scoring an average of 4.17 goals and conceding only 0.5 against weaker opposition, while Mika’s away record is weaker, with just 1.07 goals scored and 2.29 conceded against stronger teams. The expected total of 4.2 goals signals a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 3-1 for Andranik, with an 8.2% probability. The model also predicts a 6+ total goals outcome at 24%. Home win probability sits at 77%, draw at 14%, and away win at 9%. Suggested picks include Away under 3.5 goals (97.7%), Home +2 handicap (96.8%), Home over 0.5 goals (95.5%), Under 7.5 (93.8%), Over 1.5 (92.5%), Home or Draw (91.0%), Home +1 handicap (91.0%), and Away under 2.5 goals (90.8%). Andranik’s recent return from a loss and Mika’s fresh win give context, but the venue advantage and statistical edge keep the home side firmly ahead.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Andranik win
76.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
14.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Mika win
9.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Andranik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.1
Avg scored
3.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.70
1.03
3.14
1.07
2.31
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (14)
2.50
1.07
3.00
1.50
2.12
0.75
vs Weaker (11)
3.82
0.55
4.17
0.50
3.40
0.60
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mika
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.97
1.20
1.87
1.27
2.07
vs Stronger (26)
1.19
2.19
1.23
2.15
1.15
2.23
vs Similar (4)
1.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
91.8%
Under 1.5
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
77.0%
Under 2.5
23.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
57.8%
Under 3.5
42.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
62.3%
No
37.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
3-0
7.9%
2-0
7.9%
4-1
6.2%
1-1
6.0%
4-0
5.9%
1-0
4.7%
Andranik goals ↓
Mika goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.3%
1.3%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
1
4.7%
6.0%
2.9%
1.0%
0.3%
2
7.9%
8.2%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.9%
8.3%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
4
5.9%
6.2%
3.3%
1.1%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Andranik goals (down), columns = Mika goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Andranik is 1.27 points better than Mika in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 0.93).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Andranik is 1.47 goals better than Mika in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 1.07).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Andranik is 1.00 goals better than Mika in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Andranik or Draw
90.6%
Avg Implied -
76%
14%
9%
covers Andranik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Andranik or Mika
85.6%
Avg Implied -
76%
14%
9%
covers Andranik + Mika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Mika
23.8%
Avg Implied -
76%
14%
9%
covers Draw + Mika
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Andranik over/under 0.5
Over
95.1%
Under
4.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5
Over
80.2%
Under
19.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5
Over
57.9%
Under
42.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 3.5
Over
35.5%
Under
64.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 0.5
Over
65.0%
Under
35.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5
Over
28.2%
Under
71.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5
Over
9.0%
Under
91.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Andranik, so a minus line means Andranik give that many goals of a start and Mika receive them. At -1, Andranik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Andranik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Andranik)
Andranik -2
37.5%
Draw -2
20.1%
Mika +2
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Andranik)
Andranik -1
57.6%
Draw -1
18.5%
Mika +1
23.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Andranik)
Andranik +1
90.6%
Draw +1
6.1%
Mika -1
3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Andranik)
Andranik +2
96.7%
Draw +2
2.4%
Mika -2
0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Andranik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
0.50
1.21
0.29
1.25
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (14)
1.29
0.57
1.17
0.67
1.38
0.50
vs Weaker (11)
1.73
0.27
1.67
0.00
1.80
0.60
Clean sheet %
67% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mika
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.87
0.60
0.87
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (26)
0.42
0.96
0.54
1.00
0.31
0.92
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Andranik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Andranik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.53
1.93
0.79
1.06
0.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (14)
1.21
0.50
1.83
0.83
0.75
0.25
vs Weaker (11)
2.09
0.27
2.50
0.50
1.60
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Mika) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Mika
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.10
0.60
1.00
1.00
1.20
vs Stronger (26)
0.77
1.23
0.69
1.15
0.85
1.31
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Andranik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Mika over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Away under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
95.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
94.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
91.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
90.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 1.5 goals
80.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home win
76.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Andranik's squad is €1m more valuable than Mika's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Andranik and Mika have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Andranik and Mika have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Andranik and Mika have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympia Yerevan
BKMA II
Pyunik II
Lernayin Artsakh
Bentonit Ijevan
Banants II
Noah II
Araks Ararat
Shirak II
Sardarapat 2
Ararat-Armenia II
Hayq
Ararat II