Andranik’s recent run of four wins after a single loss signals a sharp turnaround, and the model’s 65% home-win probability reflects that momentum. Their home form shows an average of 1.8 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded against similar opponents, while Noah II, playing away, averages 1.33 scored and 2.33 conceded. This disparity gives the model a clear edge to the home side, and the predicted result is a home win.
The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total being three goals at 22%. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 2-0 for Andranik, carrying a 10.2% chance. The suggested pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an 83.9% probability of hitting.
Probabilities are 65% for a home win, 21% for a draw, and 14% for an away win. The model also selects the Over 1.5 goal outcome with 83.9% certainty.
Results analysis
Andranik’s recent form, a streak of four wins after a defeat, set the tone for a home victory that the model predicted correctly. The Pythia forecast called a Home win with a 65% probability, and the match finished 3-1 in favour of Andranik, confirming the selection. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, hit with an 83.9% probability. No other selections were listed, so all covered picks were settled. The final score matched the most likely 3-goal outcome, and the result aligned with the pre-match probability, underscoring the model’s accuracy in this encounter.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Andranik win✓ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Noah II win✗ Miss
14.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Andranik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
2.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.13
1.07
2.29
0.86
2.00
1.25
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.83
0.33
1.33
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (10)
1.60
0.90
1.80
0.80
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (14)
3.14
0.86
3.67
0.67
2.75
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Noah II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.97
1.53
1.60
0.93
2.33
vs Stronger (13)
0.77
2.23
1.33
2.33
0.29
2.14
vs Similar (12)
1.50
1.58
1.67
0.83
1.33
2.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.80
2.20
1.67
1.67
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
83.9%
Under 1.5
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.2%
Under 2.5
37.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
40.0%
Under 3.5
60.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.2%
No
43.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
10.2%
2-1
9.8%
1-1
9.6%
1-0
8.2%
3-0
7.6%
3-1 ✓
7.4%
0-0
4.9%
2-2
4.7%
Andranik goals ↓
Noah II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.9%
3.0%
1.9%
0.6%
0.1%
1
8.2%
9.6%
4.2%
1.4%
0.3%
2
10%
9.8%
4.7%
1.5%
0.4%
3
7.6%
7.4%
3.5%
1.1%
0.3%
4
4.3%
4.1%
2.0%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Andranik goals (down), columns = Noah II goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Sardarapat
2.53
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Syunik
2.21
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Van II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Shirak II
0.60
Andranik is 1.17 points better than Noah II in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.03).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Syunik
2.76
Sardarapat
2.70
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Pyunik II
1.43
Ararat II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Van II
1.10
Mika
1.07
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Andranik is 1.23 goals better than Noah II in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 1.30).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Sardarapat
0.60
Hayq
0.80
Syunik
0.90
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Banants II
1.80
Noah II
1.93
Ararat II
1.93
Van II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Andranik is 0.93 goals better than Noah II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 1.93).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Andranik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.40
1.14
0.14
0.94
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.00
0.83
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (10)
1.10
0.40
1.20
0.20
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (14)
1.43
0.21
1.67
0.00
1.25
0.38
Clean sheet %
73% (+48pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Noah II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.00
0.53
0.73
0.47
1.27
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.23
0.50
1.33
0.29
1.14
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.83
0.50
0.33
0.33
1.33
vs Weaker (5)
1.00
0.80
0.67
0.33
1.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Andranik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Andranik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
0.60
1.14
0.71
1.19
0.50
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.40
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.86
0.50
2.00
0.67
1.75
0.38
Clean sheet %
53% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Noah II) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Noah II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.97
1.00
0.87
0.47
1.07
vs Stronger (13)
0.38
1.00
0.83
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (12)
1.08
0.75
1.17
0.50
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (5)
0.80
1.40
1.00
1.33
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Andranik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Noah II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (23)
€2m
SYU (23)
€2m
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
Andranik's squad is €1m more valuable than Noah II's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (9)
€1m
SAR (7)
€1m
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
Andranik and Noah II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SYU (6)
€0m
AND (8)
€0m
SAR (4)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
Andranik and Noah II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
SAR (12)
€1m
SYU (8)
€0m
AND (11)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
Andranik and Noah II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Sardarapat
BKMA II
Hayq
Syunik
Pyunik II
Ararat II
Araks Ararat
Banants II
Bentonit Ijevan
Mika
Ararat-Armenia II
Van II
Lernayin Artsakh
Shirak II