Andranik is the clear favourite to win at home against Shirak II, with the model predicting a home win. This is largely due to Andranik's strong recent form, having won their last four games, including a convincing 4-0 victory over Ararat II. The model also notes that Andranik scores an average of 3.55 goals at home against weaker opponents, conceding just 0.82 goals.
The expected total number of goals is 4.6, with the most likely score being 3-1, occurring 8% of the time. Andranik's home scoring and conceding statistics are impressive, while Shirak II's away form is less encouraging, scoring an average of 0.86 goals and conceding 5.86 goals against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is Over 1.5, which is predicted to occur 94.5% of the time. The suggested picks include Over 1.5, Over 2.5, and Home win, with the latter two selections having probabilities of 83.2% and 82.4% respectively. Andranik is expected to win 82%, draw 11%, and lose 7% of the time. Over 1.5 is the model's selection with a probability of 94.5%, while Over 2.5 has a probability of 83.2% and Home win has a probability of 82.4%.
Results analysis
The win extends Andranik's 5-game winning run, as they dominated Shirak II 4-0 at home. The model correctly predicted a home win, with a pre-match probability of 82%. The predicted score was a high-scoring affair, with the most likely total goals being 6+, but the actual result was a comfortable 4-0 victory for Andranik. The model's selection of home win was correct, as it was the favourite going into the match. The suggested picks also largely came in, with over 1.5 goals (94.5%) and over 2.5 goals (83.2%) both hitting. The model's selection of home win also hit, as did the suggested pick of home win, which shared the same probability of 82.4%.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Andranik win✓ Hit
82.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
11.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Shirak II win✗ Miss
6.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Andranik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.4
Avg scored
3.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.67
0.97
3.00
0.93
2.38
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
2.00
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.33
vs Similar (13)
2.77
0.92
3.17
1.00
2.43
0.86
vs Weaker (12)
3.33
0.58
3.67
0.67
3.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak II
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
3.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.97
1.13
2.27
1.13
3.67
vs Stronger (14)
0.71
4.36
0.71
3.00
0.71
5.71
vs Similar (13)
1.54
1.62
1.67
1.50
1.43
1.71
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.00
2.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-16pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (30%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
94.5%
Under 1.5
5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
83.2%
Under 2.5
16.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
66.6%
Under 3.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
3-1
8.0%
3-0
7.7%
4-1
7.0%
2-1
6.8%
4-0 ✓
6.8%
2-0
6.6%
5-1
4.9%
5-0
4.7%
Andranik goals ↓
Shirak II goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
1.5%
0.7%
0.6%
0.2%
0.1%
1
3.4%
4.3%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
2
6.6%
6.8%
3.5%
1.2%
0.3%
3
7.7%
8.0%
4.2%
1.4%
0.4%
4
6.8%
7.0%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Andranik goals (down), columns = Shirak II goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
BKMA II
2.37
Hayq
2.27
Andranik
2.20
Pyunik II
1.47
Olympia Yerevan
1.30
Ararat II
1.27
Araks Ararat
1.23
Banants II
1.20
Noah II
1.03
Bentonit Ijevan
0.97
Mika
0.93
Ararat-Armenia II
0.80
Lernayin Artsakh
0.79
Sardarapat 2
0.74
Shirak II
0.60
Andranik is 1.60 points better than Shirak II in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 0.60).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
BKMA II
2.57
Andranik
2.53
Hayq
1.97
Ararat-Armenia II
1.53
Banants II
1.53
Olympia Yerevan
1.50
Ararat II
1.43
Pyunik II
1.43
Noah II
1.30
Araks Ararat
1.27
Shirak II
1.13
Bentonit Ijevan
1.10
Mika
1.07
Sardarapat 2
0.85
Lernayin Artsakh
0.76
Andranik is 1.40 goals better than Shirak II in terms of goals scored per game (2.53 vs 1.13).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Hayq
0.80
Andranik
1.00
BKMA II
1.03
Pyunik II
1.43
Bentonit Ijevan
1.63
Araks Ararat
1.70
Olympia Yerevan
1.79
Banants II
1.80
Ararat II
1.93
Noah II
1.93
Mika
2.00
Ararat-Armenia II
2.07
Lernayin Artsakh
2.45
Shirak II
2.97
Sardarapat 2
3.15
Andranik is 1.97 goals better than Shirak II in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 2.97).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Andranik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
0.43
1.36
0.14
1.25
0.69
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
0.80
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (13)
1.54
0.46
1.50
0.33
1.57
0.57
vs Weaker (12)
1.58
0.25
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
70% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak II
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
1.60
0.47
1.07
0.53
2.13
vs Stronger (14)
0.21
2.57
0.29
1.57
0.14
3.57
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.77
0.67
0.67
0.86
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Andranik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Andranik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
0.53
1.64
0.79
1.12
0.31
vs Stronger (5)
0.80
1.20
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (13)
1.23
0.46
1.67
0.67
0.86
0.29
vs Weaker (12)
1.75
0.33
2.00
0.67
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Shirak II) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Shirak II
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.37
0.67
1.20
0.60
1.53
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
1.79
0.43
1.43
0.57
2.14
vs Similar (13)
0.77
0.85
1.00
0.83
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.50
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
27% (+1pp vs league)
This opponent (Andranik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Andranik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Andranik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Shirak II over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
94.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
83.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home win
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (29)
€1m
HAY (13)
€1m
BI (16)
€0m
OY (15)
€0m
BI (16)
€0m
MIK (21)
€0m
AI (11)
€0m
PI (13)
€0m
SI (8)
€0m
BI (9)
€0m
LA (8)
€0m
NI (4)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Andranik's squad is €1m more valuable than Shirak II's (€1m vs €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (10)
€1m
HAY (8)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
SI (1)
€0m
MIK (4)
€0m
OY (2)
€0m
PI (1)
€0m
NI (1)
€0m
BI (2)
€0m
LA (1)
€0m
AI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Andranik and Shirak II have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (8)
€0m
BI (6)
€0m
MIK (10)
€0m
AI (5)
€0m
OY (4)
€0m
SI (4)
€0m
BI (5)
€0m
PI (4)
€0m
LA (4)
€0m
BI (3)
€0m
HAY (1)
€0m
NI (0)
€0m
S2 (0)
€0m
Andranik and Shirak II have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AND (11)
€0m
OY (9)
€0m
HAY (4)
€0m
BI (8)
€0m
AI (6)
€0m
BI (7)
€0m
PI (8)
€0m
MIK (7)
€0m
SI (3)
€0m
BI (4)
€0m
NI (3)
€0m
LA (3)
€0m
S2 (2)
€0m
Andranik and Shirak II have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Armenia: First League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Armenia: First League stats & trends →