Lille is expected to win this match, with a recent storyline of coming off a defeat against Auxerre, where they lost 0-2. The model predicts an away win, with a 56% probability, while the home win percentage stands at 18% and the draw percentage at 26%.
The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 12.4%. Angers has a poor home form, conceding an average of 2 goals per match against stronger opponents, while scoring 0.56 goals on average. Lille has a decent away form, scoring 1.83 goals and conceding 0.83 goals against weaker opponents.
The model's selections include Under 3.5 with a 74.2% probability and Over 1.5 with a 73.8% probability.
Results analysis
The win for Lille extends their recent run, while Angers finish coming off a defeat. The final score was 0-2, confirming the away win that the model had picked with a 55 % probability. The prediction was correct. Every model selection turned out true: Under 7.5 goals hit at 99.6 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 99.0 %, Home under 3.5 goals at 99.0 %, Under 6.5 at 98.7 %, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.9 %, Under 5.5 at 96.0 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.1 %, and Home under 2.5 goals at 94.8 %. The most likely scoreline of 0-1, 1-1 or 0-2 all fell within the model’s high-confidence range, and the 2-goal margin matched the expected total of 2.5 goals.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Angers win✗ Miss
17.6%
Avg Implied 19.5% · @ 4.89
Edge
-1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
5.10
Betano
5.10
1xBet
5.08
Pinnacle
5.05
Betfair
5.00
Draw✗ Miss
26.9%
Avg Implied 25.6% · @ 3.72
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.94
Betano
3.90
Marathonbet
3.88
Dafabet
3.80
Pinnacle
3.78
Lille win✓ Hit
55.5%
Avg Implied 55.0% · @ 1.73
Edge
+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.77
Pinnacle
1.76
Dafabet
1.75
Betfair
1.75
Betano
1.75
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Angers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.43
1.13
1.20
0.67
1.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
2.31
0.71
1.86
0.67
2.83
vs Similar (17)
1.06
0.76
1.50
0.62
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.97
0.79
1.07
1.25
0.88
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
3.00
-
-
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (17)
0.88
0.94
0.78
1.11
1.00
0.75
vs Weaker (12)
1.33
0.83
0.80
1.00
1.71
0.71
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
71.5%
@ 1.31-0.4%
Under 1.5
28.5%
@ 3.34+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Betano
1.33
Under
Unibet
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Betfair
3.50
Pinnacle
3.43
Superbet
3.40
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
44.5%
@ 1.99-3.4%
Under 2.5
55.5%
@ 1.83+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.08
1xBet
2.07
SBO
2.04
Marathonbet
2.01
Superbet
2.00
Under
1xBet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Betano
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Unibet
1.84
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
23.3%
@ 3.44-4.0%
Under 3.5
76.7%
@ 1.29+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.67
888Sport
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Superbet
3.50
Unibet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
46.2%
@ 1.89-3.2%
No
53.8%
@ 1.85+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.95
888Sport
1.91
William Hil
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Betano
1.90
No
Betfair
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Unibet
1.85
888Sport
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-1
12.9%@ 6.07+5.5%
1-1
12.7%@ 6.46+5.8%
0-2 ✓
11.5%@ 7.34+5.4%
0-0
9.7%@ 9.57+5.1%
1-2
9.4%@ 7.60+3.6%
0-3
6.2%@ 12.57+2.7%
1-0
5.9%@ 11.48+2.0%
1-3
5.1%@ 13.34+1.8%
Angers goals ↓
Lille goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.7%
13%
11%
6.2%
2.5%
1
5.9%
13%
9.4%
5.1%
2.1%
2
2.9%
4.7%
3.9%
2.1%
0.9%
3
0.8%
1.3%
1.1%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.2%
0.3%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Angers goals (down), columns = Lille goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Auxerre
1.00
Nice
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Angers is 0.74 points worse than Lille in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Angers is 0.68 goals worse than Lille in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.53).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Rennes
1.47
Paris FC
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Angers is 0.32 goals worse than Lille in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.09).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Angers is 14.0 percentage points worse than Lille in terms of average possession (42% vs 56%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Angers
For 3.8 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Lille
For 4.4 · Against 4.5 · Total 8.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.1 · Against 12.3 · Total 21.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Angers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.9
8.9
9.0
3.1
3.6
2.6
22.6
24.5
20.8
vs Stronger (22)
9.3
8.8
10.0
3.0
3.4
2.4
21.1
22.4
19.6
vs Similar (28)
8.6
9.1
8.3
3.2
3.8
2.8
23.8
26.5
21.7
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
41%
33%
48%
42%
56%
28%
57%
75%
40%
% under line
59%
67%
52%
58%
44%
72%
43%
25%
60%
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.2
9.2
4.3
3.8
4.9
23.9
23.6
24.1
vs Stronger (2)
7.0
8.0
6.0
1.5
2.0
1.0
21.5
23.0
20.0
vs Similar (28)
9.5
9.5
9.5
4.5
3.8
5.4
23.8
23.8
23.8
vs Weaker (20)
10.2
11.6
9.0
4.3
3.9
4.6
24.2
23.4
24.8
% over line
48%
52%
44%
62%
52%
72%
62%
60%
64%
% under line
52%
48%
56%
38%
48%
28%
38%
40%
36%
This opponent (Angers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.6
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Lyon
9.9
Auxerre
9.8
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.7
Monaco
9.5
Paris FC
9.4
Toulouse
9.3
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
9.0
Marseille
9.0
Angers
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lyon
4.7
Auxerre
4.7
Marseille
4.5
Le Mans
4.5
Toulouse
4.4
Lens
4.4
Lille
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.1
Lorient
4.1
Nice
4.1
Estac Troyes
4.0
Paris FC
4.0
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Estac Troyes
27.2
Le Mans
27.1
Le Havre
26.9
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.3
Lyon
25.3
Lens
25.0
Stade Brestois 29
24.7
Rennes
24.1
Lille
23.9
Monaco
23.8
Nice
23.6
Strasbourg
23.6
Marseille
23.3
Lorient
23.0
Angers
22.5
Paris FC
22.4
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
41.5%
@ 2.02-4.6%
Under 9.5
58.5%
@ 1.72+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
2.10
Betano
2.07
Pinnacle
2.07
1xBet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
Under
10Bet
1.77
Superbet
1.76
Pinnacle
1.75
Unibet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.71
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
60.1%
@ 1.60+2.0%
Under 3.5
39.9%
@ 2.23-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.67
Unibet
1.61
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.54
Under
Superbet
2.32
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.19
Unibet
2.14
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
65.7%
@ 1.61+8.8%
Under 21.5
34.3%
@ 2.12-8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.62
Superbet
1.60
Under
Superbet
2.15
1xBet
2.10
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Angers or Draw✗ Miss
44.5%
Avg Implied 44.8% · @ 2.11
Edge
-0.3%
18%
27%
55%
covers Angers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
2.18
Marathonbet
2.17
1xBet
2.17
SBO
2.15
Unibet
2.14
Angers or Lille✓ Hit
73.2%
Avg Implied 75.0% · @ 1.26
Edge
-1.8%
18%
27%
55%
covers Angers + Lille
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
Draw or Lille✓ Hit
82.3%
Avg Implied 80.2% · @ 1.18
Edge
+2.1%
18%
27%
55%
covers Draw + Lille
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Angers over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
56.3%
@ 1.58-2.6%
Under
43.7%
@ 2.27+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.63
Betano
1.60
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Marathonbet
1.58
Under
Betfair
2.40
Pinnacle
2.34
BetVictor
2.25
888Sport
2.25
Betano
2.25
Angers over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
20.2%
@ 3.93-3.6%
Under
79.8%
@ 1.23+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.22
1xBet
4.15
Marathonbet
4.15
Bet365
4.00
Superbet
3.90
Under
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
Angers over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
5.2%
@ 11.75-3.0%
Under
94.8%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
13.00
1xBet
13.00
Bet365
13.00
888Sport
12.00
Superbet
11.00
Under
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Angers over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 29.67-2.3%
Under
99.0%
@ 1.01+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
41.00
Superbet
35.00
Betano
13.00
Under
Betano
1.01
Lille over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
80.6%
@ 1.16+0.3%
Under
19.4%
@ 4.72-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Under
Betfair
5.20
Bet365
5.00
888Sport
4.80
Unibet
4.70
1xBet
4.60
Lille over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
48.8%
@ 1.86-1.5%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.88+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Superbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.87
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
Unibet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Betano
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Lille over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
22.7%
@ 3.72-2.3%
Under
77.3%
@ 1.25+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.99
1xBet
3.84
Marathonbet
3.84
Betfair
3.80
BetVictor
3.80
Under
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Lille over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
8.5%
@ 8.51-2.5%
Under
91.5%
@ 1.05+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
10.00
1xBet
9.10
Marathonbet
9.10
888Sport
9.00
Betfair
9.00
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Unibet
1.06
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Angers, so a minus line means Angers give that many goals of a start and Lille receive them. At -1, Angers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Angers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Angers)Actual: Lille
Angers -2
1.4%
@ 35.67-1.3%
Draw -2
4.5%
@ 14.67-1.9%
Lille +2
94.2%
@ 1.03+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
41.00
Bet365
34.00
Superbet
32.00
Draw
Bet365
15.00
Betfair
15.00
Superbet
14.00
Away
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
Handicap -1 (Angers)Actual: Lille
Angers -1
5.8%
@ 10.43-2.7%
Draw -1
11.8%
@ 5.80-3.5%
Lille +1
82.3%
@ 1.17+6.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
13.00
Bet365
12.00
Unibet
11.00
10Bet
10.00
Marathonbet
6.15
Draw
Bet365
6.50
Betfair
6.50
Unibet
6.25
10Bet
6.00
Marathonbet
3.75
Away
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Handicap +1 (Angers)Actual: Lille
Angers +1
44.5%
@ 2.10+1.6%
Draw +1
24.6%
@ 3.44-1.6%
Lille -1
30.9%
@ 2.92+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
2.17
Unibet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
10Bet
2.10
Bet365
2.10
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Unibet
3.35
Away
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.99
Superbet
2.95
10Bet
2.90
Bet365
2.88
Handicap +2 (Angers)Actual: Draw
Angers +2
69.1%
@ 1.36+2.5%
Draw +2
17.5%
@ 4.88-1.0%
Lille -2
13.4%
@ 6.04-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.40
Superbet
1.38
Unibet
1.37
10Bet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.34
Draw
Marathonbet
5.15
Betfair
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Superbet
4.90
10Bet
4.75
Away
Betfair
6.50
Marathonbet
6.15
Superbet
6.10
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.75
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Angers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.27
0.67
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.15
1.23
0.14
1.29
0.17
1.17
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.24
0.50
0.12
0.22
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.37
0.29
0.50
0.38
0.25
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.41
0.33
0.56
0.38
0.25
vs Weaker (12)
0.33
0.25
0.20
0.40
0.43
0.14
Clean sheet %
70% (+42pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
69.1%
@ 1.40+2.0%
Under 0.5
30.9%
@ 2.84-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
Superbet
1.41
Under
Betfair
3.00
Pinnacle
2.94
Superbet
2.92
10Bet
2.88
1xBet
2.85
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.5%
@ 2.85+2.7%
Under 1.5
64.5%
@ 1.39-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.06
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.98
Betano
2.95
Superbet
2.90
Under
Superbet
1.42
10Bet
1.42
Betano
1.40
Bet365
1.40
William Hil
1.40
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
11.7%
@ 7.42-0.9%
Under 2.5
88.3%
@ 1.07+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
BetVictor
8.00
Marathonbet
8.00
1xBet
8.00
Betfair
7.50
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Angers over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
39.1%
@ 2.80+5.8%
Under
60.9%
@ 1.40-5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.02
Betano
2.80
Unibet
2.80
Marathonbet
2.80
Superbet
2.75
Under
10Bet
1.44
1xBet
1.41
Pinnacle
1.40
Betano
1.40
Superbet
1.39
Angers over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.0%
@ 9.38-3.0%
Under
93.0%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
Betano
8.75
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
Angers over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.0%
@ 45.00-99.0%
Under
99.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
45.00
Under
No market prices yet.
Lille over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
52.8%
@ 1.76-0.2%
Under
47.2%
@ 1.98+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.80
Betano
1.80
Marathonbet
1.77
1xBet
1.76
Superbet
1.75
Under
10Bet
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
1xBet
1.97
Superbet
1.97
Unibet
1.96
Lille over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
16.3%
@ 4.74-3.2%
Under
83.7%
@ 1.15+3.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
Unibet
4.70
Betano
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.60
Under
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
Lille over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.9%
@ 12.12-2.9%
Under
95.1%
@ 1.02+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Angers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.77
0.80
0.53
0.47
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.54
1.08
0.57
0.57
0.50
1.67
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.53
1.00
0.50
0.44
0.56
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Lille) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Lille
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.60
0.50
0.57
0.88
0.62
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.53
0.44
0.56
0.62
0.50
vs Weaker (12)
1.00
0.58
0.60
0.60
1.29
0.57
Clean sheet %
60% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
78.0%
@ 1.26+3.4%
Under 0.5
22.0%
@ 3.69-3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
Under
Superbet
3.80
Betano
3.80
Unibet
3.80
1xBet
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
45.6%
@ 2.21+2.8%
Under 1.5
54.4%
@ 1.65-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
888Sport
2.30
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.70
Unibet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
1xBet
1.67
Superbet
1.66
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.4%
@ 4.86-1.9%
Under 2.5
82.6%
@ 1.16+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Superbet
5.00
888Sport
5.00
Bet365
5.00
Under
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.15
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Angers over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
43.4%
@ 2.31+3.1%
Under
56.6%
@ 1.55-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.32
1xBet
2.30
Betano
2.30
Superbet
2.30
Under
Betano
1.57
1xBet
1.56
Superbet
1.55
Marathonbet
1.54
Angers over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.4%
@ 7.90-0.3%
Under
88.6%
@ 1.05+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.00
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
7.60
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Angers over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.1%
@ 20.75-2.6%
Under
97.9%
@ 1.01+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
29.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Lille over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
63.1%
@ 1.53+2.2%
Under
36.9%
@ 2.38-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.54
1xBet
1.53
Betano
1.52
Under
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.37
Superbet
2.32
Lille over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.5%
@ 3.51+0.1%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.26-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.64
Superbet
3.60
1xBet
3.50
Betano
3.30
Under
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
Lille over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
5.9%
@ 8.97-4.4%
Under
94.1%
@ 1.03+4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.80
Superbet
9.40
Betano
7.70
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
99.0%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.7%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
Betano
1.01
Bet365
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.9%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.03
Bet365
1.03
888Sport
1.03
1xBet
1.03
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
95.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
94.8%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Bet365
1.04
888Sport
1.04
Superbet
1.03
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
94.2%
1.03
Superbet
1.04
Bet365
1.03
Betfair
1.03
-
-
+3.2%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
1.03
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
93.0%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
91.5%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Bet365
1.06
888Sport
1.06
Unibet
1.06
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.5%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Bet365
1.11
Superbet
1.10
10Bet
1.10
Betfair
1.10
+3.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
88.6%
1.05
Betano
1.08
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
88.3%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.09
10Bet
1.08
Bet365
1.08
William Hil
1.08
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.7%
1.15
10Bet
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.16
1xBet
1.14
Unibet
1.13
+3.2%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.6%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Superbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
William Hil
1.15
888Sport
1.15
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
82.3%
1.18
1xBet
1.21
Betano
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
Superbet
1.19
BetVictor
1.18
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
82.3%
1.17
Marathonbet
1.20
Bet365
1.17
10Bet
1.17
Unibet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
+6.2%
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
80.6%
1.16
Betano
1.18
Superbet
1.17
Bet365
1.17
888Sport
1.17
10Bet
1.17
+0.3%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
80.2%
1.25
Superbet
1.31
Unibet
1.27
Betano
1.24
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
+6.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
79.8%
1.23
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.23
1xBet
1.23
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
79.8%
1.32
1xBet
1.32
-
-
-
-
+11.1%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
78.7%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Unibet
1.27
Superbet
1.21
-
-
+4.9%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
78.0%
1.26
888Sport
1.30
William Hil
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
77.3%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Bet365
1.25
888Sport
1.25
10Bet
1.25
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
76.7%
1.29
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Superbet
1.31
Bet365
1.30
Betfair
1.30
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
75.6%
1.32
Betano
1.34
Superbet
1.32
Unibet
1.29
-
-
+5.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.26
Betano
1.30
1xBet
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
73.2%
1.26
1xBet
1.30
Superbet
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Unibet
1.27
-1.8%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
71.5%
1.31
Pinnacle
1.34
888Sport
1.33
Superbet
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Betano
1.33
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
70.4%
1.44
Pinnacle
1.50
Superbet
1.49
Unibet
1.45
Betano
1.40
Marathonbet
1.40
+6.3%
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Angers · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sidiki Cherif20%
Jim Allevinah17%
Prosper Peter16%
Himad Abdelli15%
Goduine Koyalipou15%
Amine Sbai15%
Djibirin Harouna13%
Yassin Belkhdim7%
Lilian Raolisoa6%
Louis Mouton6%
Lanroy Machine4%
Ousmane Camara3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Carlens Arcus0%
Pierrick Capelle0%
Jordan Lefort0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Branco Van den Boomen0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Pona25%
Haris Belkebla24%
Carlens Arcus21%
Yassin Belkhdim21%
Pierrick Capelle17%
Sidiki Cherif15%
Abdoulaye Bamba14%
Branco Van den Boomen13%
Djibirin Harouna13%
Jacques Ekomié12%
Marius Louer11%
Lilian Raolisoa9%
Himad Abdelli8%
Amine Sbai7%
Ousmane Camara6%
Louis Mouton6%
Lanroy Machine4%
Hervé Koffi3%
Jordan Lefort3%
Goduine Koyalipou0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Prosper Peter0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lilian Raolisoa12%
Carlens Arcus11%
Goduine Koyalipou8%
Yassin Belkhdim7%
Branco Van den Boomen7%
Djibirin Harouna7%
Pierrick Capelle6%
Jordan Lefort6%
Amine Sbai4%
Louis Mouton3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Lanroy Machine0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Sidiki Cherif0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
Prosper Peter0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Goduine Koyalipou15%
Yassin Belkhdim11%
Himad Abdelli8%
Branco Van den Boomen7%
Prosper Peter6%
Louis Mouton6%
Sidiki Cherif5%
Lanroy Machine4%
Amine Sbai4%
Ousmane Camara3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Carlens Arcus0%
Pierrick Capelle0%
Jordan Lefort0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Florent Hanin0%
Lilian Raolisoa0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
Djibirin Harouna0%
Lille
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Olivier Giroud33%
H. Haraldsson33%
Tiago Santos33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
R. Perraud67%
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
N. Bentaleb33%
Olivier Giroud33%
B. Özer0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
H. Haraldsson0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Haraldsson33%
N. Bentaleb0%
B. Özer0%
Olivier Giroud0%
R. Perraud0%
C. Verdonk0%
Alexsandro Ribeiro0%
N. Ngoy0%
N. Mukau0%
Tiago Santos0%
Ethan Mbappé0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Angers's squad is €239m less valuable than Lille's (€73m vs €312m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Angers's attack is €103m less valuable than Lille's (€30m vs €133m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Angers's midfield is €91m less valuable than Lille's (€11m vs €102m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Angers's defence is €44m less valuable than Lille's (€32m vs €76m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Rennes
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre