Angers’ recent win over Auxerre gives them a brief lift, but their home form against stronger teams shows a low average of 0.57 goals scored and 2.0 conceded, suggesting a defensive struggle. Rennes, on the other hand, has been prolific away, averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.5 conceded against weaker opponents, pointing to a likely offensive outburst. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected total of 3.2 goals, most likely 3 in total. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.8% chance. The match result favoured by the model is an away win, with probabilities of 22% for a home win, 24% for a draw, and 54% for an away win. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 goals at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.4% with a 6% edge, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.7% with a 6% edge, Home under 3.5 goals at 96.2% with a 2% edge, Under 6.5 at 96.1% with a 2% edge, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 95.5% with a 5% edge, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 93.8% with a 6% edge, and Home under 1.5 HT goals at 91.6% with a 4% edge.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Angers win
22.5%
Avg Implied 24.4% · @ 3.88
Edge
-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.06
Unibet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Marathonbet
4.00
Pinnacle
3.95
Draw
23.9%
Avg Implied 25.0% · @ 3.78
Edge
-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.98
Pinnacle
3.97
Marathonbet
3.92
Betfair
3.90
Dafabet
3.85
Rennes win
53.6%
Avg Implied 50.6% · @ 1.87
Edge
+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.93
Dafabet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Pinnacle
1.88
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Angers
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
1.33
1.07
1.27
0.87
1.40
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
2.17
0.57
2.00
0.80
2.40
vs Similar (18)
1.17
0.78
1.50
0.62
0.90
0.90
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rennes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.1
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.93
1.47
2.07
1.07
1.80
1.87
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
2.67
2.50
1.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (19)
2.00
1.58
2.14
1.14
1.92
1.83
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
0.75
1.83
0.83
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
30% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
83.5%
@ 1.20+5.7%
Under 1.5
16.5%
@ 4.23-5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
Under
Bet365
4.50
Betfair
4.50
Betano
4.35
BetVictor
4.33
Unibet
4.30
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
61.5%
@ 1.68+4.7%
Under 2.5
38.5%
@ 2.20-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.74
Pinnacle
1.71
Unibet
1.71
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Under
SBO
2.29
1xBet
2.27
Betano
2.25
Pinnacle
2.22
10Bet
2.20
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
39.2%
@ 2.64+3.5%
Under 3.5
60.8%
@ 1.46-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.80
Pinnacle
2.75
Betano
2.65
Betfair
2.63
Bet365
2.62
Under
Bet365
1.50
Betano
1.50
10Bet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.48
Betfair
1.47
Both teams to score
Yes
61.4%
@ 1.59+2.9%
No
38.6%
@ 2.24-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
1.62
1xBet
1.60
Betano
1.60
Marathonbet
1.60
William Hil
1.60
No
William Hil
2.30
Betfair
2.30
Bet365
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Betano
2.25
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.0%@ 6.87+4.4%
1-2
9.8%@ 7.77+4.0%
0-2
8.0%@ 9.46+3.3%
0-1
7.2%@ 8.36+1.8%
1-3
6.4%@ 12.55+2.8%
2-1
6.1%@ 11.68+2.2%
2-2
5.9%@ 11.95+2.2%
0-3
5.2%@ 15.11+2.3%
Angers goals ↓
Rennes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.2%
7.2%
8.0%
5.2%
2.6%
1
4.1%
11%
9.8%
6.4%
3.1%
2
3.1%
6.1%
5.9%
3.9%
1.9%
3
1.3%
2.5%
2.4%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Angers goals (down), columns = Rennes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.06
Lille
1.79
Lyon
1.76
Marseille
1.74
Rennes
1.74
Monaco
1.59
Strasbourg
1.56
Toulouse
1.33
Lorient
1.32
Paris FC
1.29
Stade Brestois 29
1.15
Angers
1.06
Estac Troyes
1.04
Le Havre
1.03
Nice
1.00
Auxerre
1.00
Le Mans
0.83
Angers is 0.68 points worse than Rennes in terms of average points per game (1.06 vs 1.74).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.18
Lens
1.94
Marseille
1.85
Monaco
1.76
Rennes
1.74
Strasbourg
1.71
Lyon
1.56
Lille
1.53
Toulouse
1.42
Lorient
1.41
Paris FC
1.38
Stade Brestois 29
1.26
Nice
1.14
Estac Troyes
1.11
Auxerre
1.00
Le Havre
0.94
Le Mans
0.88
Angers
0.85
Angers is 0.88 goals worse than Rennes in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 1.74).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Paris Saint Germain
0.85
Lens
1.03
Lille
1.09
Lyon
1.18
Le Havre
1.29
Auxerre
1.29
Marseille
1.32
Strasbourg
1.38
Toulouse
1.39
Angers
1.41
Paris FC
1.47
Rennes
1.47
Lorient
1.50
Monaco
1.59
Stade Brestois 29
1.62
Nice
1.69
Estac Troyes
1.85
Le Mans
2.32
Angers is 0.06 goals better than Rennes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.41 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Paris Saint Germain
69%
Marseille
57%
Lille
56%
Lyon
55%
Monaco
54%
Strasbourg
54%
Rennes
54%
Lens
51%
Paris FC
50%
Le Havre
47%
Nice
47%
Lorient
45%
Auxerre
44%
Stade Brestois 29
43%
Toulouse
42%
Angers
42%
Angers is 11.7 percentage points worse than Rennes in terms of average possession (42% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Angers
For 4.5 · Against 5.3 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 11.4 · Total 21.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Rennes
For 7.3 · Against 4.7 · Total 12.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.9 · Against 11.9 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Angers
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.0
9.5
3.2
3.6
2.7
22.6
24.4
20.6
vs Stronger (23)
9.4
8.9
10.0
3.0
3.5
2.4
21.3
22.5
19.6
vs Similar (27)
9.1
9.1
9.1
3.3
3.8
2.9
23.7
26.5
21.4
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
36%
54%
46%
58%
33%
59%
76%
42%
% under line
55%
64%
46%
54%
42%
67%
41%
24%
58%
This opponent (Rennes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rennes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
11.2
9.8
3.9
4.0
3.8
24.0
24.2
23.8
vs Stronger (4)
10.5
9.3
14.0
3.2
3.0
4.0
15.8
16.3
14.0
vs Similar (31)
10.0
10.0
10.0
4.2
3.9
4.4
24.3
24.4
24.3
vs Weaker (15)
11.5
14.6
8.9
3.7
4.7
2.8
25.5
27.1
24.1
% over line
62%
75%
50%
58%
62%
54%
64%
67%
62%
% under line
38%
25%
50%
42%
38%
46%
36%
33%
38%
This opponent (Angers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nice
10.5
Rennes
10.5
Lens
10.3
Auxerre
10.0
Lyon
9.9
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Lille
9.6
Monaco
9.6
Paris FC
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Le Mans
9.3
Toulouse
9.3
Angers
9.2
Marseille
9.1
Le Havre
9.0
Strasbourg
8.9
Lorient
8.9
Estac Troyes
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Auxerre
4.8
Lyon
4.6
Marseille
4.5
Lens
4.5
Le Mans
4.4
Lille
4.4
Toulouse
4.3
Monaco
4.3
Rennes
4.3
Strasbourg
4.2
Le Havre
4.0
Nice
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Estac Troyes
3.9
Paris FC
3.9
Stade Brestois 29
3.7
Angers
3.4
Paris Saint Germain
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Le Mans
27.1
Estac Troyes
27.0
Le Havre
26.8
Auxerre
25.7
Toulouse
25.4
Lyon
25.1
Stade Brestois 29
25.0
Lens
24.8
Rennes
24.0
Lille
24.0
Monaco
23.5
Strasbourg
23.5
Nice
23.4
Marseille
23.4
Lorient
22.8
Angers
22.7
Paris FC
22.3
Paris Saint Germain
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.7%
@ 1.85-3.6%
Under 9.5
53.3%
@ 1.88+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.97
Marathonbet
1.92
1xBet
1.92
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.83
Under
Betano
2.02
Bet365
2.00
10Bet
1.85
Unibet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.5%
@ 1.77+1.6%
Under 3.5
45.5%
@ 1.98-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.93
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Unibet
1.71
Under
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.00
1xBet
2.00
Unibet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.88
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
65.8%
Under 21.5
34.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Angers or Draw
49.3%
Avg Implied 48.8% · @ 1.93
Edge
+0.5%
22%
24%
54%
covers Angers + Draw
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.97
Unibet
1.97
Marathonbet
1.96
SBO
1.95
Betano
1.95
Angers or Rennes
75.2%
Avg Implied 75.7% · @ 1.24
Edge
-0.5%
22%
24%
54%
covers Angers + Rennes
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
Draw or Rennes
75.5%
Avg Implied 75.6% · @ 1.25
Edge
-0.1%
22%
24%
54%
covers Draw + Rennes
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Angers over/under 0.5
Over
71.1%
@ 1.36+2.9%
Under
28.9%
@ 2.93-2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
3.05
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
10Bet
2.95
Betano
2.90
Angers over/under 1.5
Over
35.3%
@ 2.78+1.7%
Under
64.7%
@ 1.41-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.94
Unibet
2.85
Marathonbet
2.81
1xBet
2.81
Bet365
2.75
Under
Betano
1.44
Marathonbet
1.43
1xBet
1.43
Pinnacle
1.42
10Bet
1.40
Angers over/under 2.5
Over
13.0%
@ 6.80-0.7%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.08+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
BetVictor
7.00
Bet365
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
Angers over/under 3.5
Over
3.8%
@ 15.88-2.3%
Under
96.2%
@ 1.02+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
21.00
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
Rennes over/under 0.5
Over
84.4%
@ 1.13+2.4%
Under
15.6%
@ 5.13-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Under
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
1xBet
5.00
BetVictor
5.00
10Bet
5.00
Rennes over/under 1.5
Over
55.4%
@ 1.75+1.9%
Under
44.6%
@ 2.01-1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.80
Marathonbet
1.79
1xBet
1.79
BetVictor
1.75
Betfair
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Betano
2.05
1xBet
2.04
Marathonbet
2.04
Bet365
2.00
Rennes over/under 2.5
Over
28.4%
@ 3.34+0.5%
Under
71.6%
@ 1.30-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.50
BetVictor
3.40
Bet365
3.40
1xBet
3.36
Marathonbet
3.36
Under
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Rennes over/under 3.5
Over
11.8%
@ 7.11-1.3%
Under
88.2%
@ 1.07+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
8.00
Betfair
7.50
1xBet
7.00
Marathonbet
7.00
Unibet
6.75
Under
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Angers, so a minus line means Angers give that many goals of a start and Rennes receive them. At -1, Angers must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Angers win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Angers)
Angers -2
3.4%
@ 19.33-1.4%
Draw -2
7.1%
@ 11.33-1.1%
Rennes +2
89.6%
@ 1.06+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
21.00
Betfair
20.00
10Bet
17.00
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Betfair
12.00
10Bet
9.00
Away
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
Handicap -1 (Angers)
Angers -1
10.4%
@ 8.22-0.5%
Draw -1
14.0%
@ 5.54-2.3%
Rennes +1
75.5%
@ 1.24+2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
9.00
Betfair
8.50
Unibet
8.50
Marathonbet
7.60
10Bet
7.50
Draw
Bet365
6.00
Unibet
5.50
Betfair
5.50
Marathonbet
5.45
10Bet
5.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
Handicap +1 (Angers)
Angers +1
49.3%
@ 1.93+2.5%
Draw +1
21.5%
@ 3.71-2.8%
Rennes -1
29.2%
@ 3.12+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.96
Unibet
1.95
Betfair
1.91
10Bet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Draw
Bet365
4.00
Betfair
3.75
10Bet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.64
Unibet
3.50
Away
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.20
10Bet
3.10
Marathonbet
3.04
Unibet
3.00
Handicap +2 (Angers)
Angers +2
70.8%
@ 1.31+2.2%
Draw +2
15.8%
@ 5.29-1.2%
Rennes -2
13.5%
@ 6.21-1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
Draw
Betfair
5.50
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.30
10Bet
5.25
Unibet
4.90
Away
Betfair
6.50
Bet365
6.50
10Bet
6.25
Unibet
6.00
Marathonbet
5.80
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Angers
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.30
0.73
0.33
0.80
0.27
0.67
vs Stronger (12)
0.17
1.42
0.14
1.57
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.39
0.28
0.50
0.12
0.30
0.40
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rennes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.93
0.33
0.73
0.73
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
0.67
1.50
0.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (19)
0.84
0.58
0.86
0.43
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.38
0.83
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
73.3%
@ 1.31+1.5%
Under 0.5
26.7%
@ 3.33-1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.33
William Hil
1.30
Under
Betfair
3.60
William Hil
3.50
Bet365
3.50
Pinnacle
3.31
1xBet
3.30
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
34.6%
@ 2.45-3.7%
Under 1.5
65.4%
@ 1.52+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.54
Betano
2.52
Unibet
2.50
1xBet
2.49
Marathonbet
2.49
Under
William Hil
1.55
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.53
Bet365
1.53
Betano
1.53
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.2%
@ 5.62-2.3%
Under 2.5
85.8%
@ 1.12+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
6.00
William Hil
5.80
Unibet
5.75
1xBet
5.65
Marathonbet
5.65
Under
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Angers over/under 0.5 HT
Over
44.7%
@ 2.29+4.0%
Under
55.3%
@ 1.57-4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.39
Unibet
2.33
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.25
10Bet
2.25
Under
Betano
1.60
Pinnacle
1.58
1xBet
1.57
10Bet
1.57
Marathonbet
1.57
Angers over/under 1.5 HT
Over
8.3%
@ 7.53-4.0%
Under
91.7%
@ 1.06+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Unibet
7.50
Betano
6.80
Under
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
Angers over/under 2.5 HT
Over
1.6%
@ 12.50-5.8%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+5.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
12.50
Under
Betano
1.01
Rennes over/under 0.5 HT
Over
50.4%
@ 1.71-4.0%
Under
49.6%
@ 2.04+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.72
Pinnacle
1.72
1xBet
1.70
10Bet
1.70
Under
Pinnacle
2.13
10Bet
2.05
1xBet
2.03
Betano
2.02
Unibet
2.02
Rennes over/under 1.5 HT
Over
16.9%
@ 4.47-3.8%
Under
83.1%
@ 1.17+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
4.55
Marathonbet
4.55
Unibet
4.50
Betano
4.40
10Bet
4.33
Under
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
Rennes over/under 2.5 HT
Over
4.0%
@ 10.00-5.4%
Under
96.0%
@ 1.03+5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Angers
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.73
0.47
0.60
0.73
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.75
0.43
0.43
0.60
1.20
vs Similar (18)
0.78
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Rennes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Rennes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.93
1.13
0.73
1.07
1.13
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
1.16
1.00
1.29
0.71
1.08
1.17
vs Weaker (8)
1.12
0.38
1.00
0.50
1.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Angers) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.4%
@ 1.17+0.7%
Under 0.5
19.6%
@ 4.60-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
Under
Bet365
5.00
10Bet
4.60
1xBet
4.60
Marathonbet
4.60
Betano
4.60
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
48.4%
@ 1.87-2.0%
Under 1.5
51.6%
@ 1.90+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
Unibet
1.85
Betano
1.83
Under
Betano
1.95
10Bet
1.91
1xBet
1.91
Marathonbet
1.91
Bet365
1.91
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
20.0%
@ 3.66-5.5%
Under 2.5
80.0%
@ 1.25+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.00
1xBet
3.75
Marathonbet
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Bet365
3.50
Under
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Angers over/under 0.5 2H
Over
50.5%
@ 1.89+1.4%
Under
49.5%
@ 1.82-1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.90
1xBet
1.90
Betano
1.88
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.80
Angers over/under 1.5 2H
Over
13.8%
@ 5.38-3.4%
Under
86.2%
@ 1.12+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.65
1xBet
5.60
10Bet
5.25
Betano
5.00
Under
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
Angers over/under 2.5 2H
Over
2.4%
@ 10.75-6.3%
Under
97.6%
@ 1.03+6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.75
Under
Betano
1.03
Rennes over/under 0.5 2H
Over
58.6%
@ 1.48-4.7%
Under
41.4%
@ 2.54+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Under
Betano
2.57
1xBet
2.50
Rennes over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.4%
@ 3.19-6.6%
Under
77.6%
@ 1.30+6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.26
10Bet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Betano
3.10
Under
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
Rennes over/under 2.5 2H
Over
6.0%
@ 8.05-5.5%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.04+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
8.90
Betano
7.20
Under
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+5.8%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+6.3%
Home under 3.5 goals
96.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.01
-
-
-
+2.3%
Under 6.5
96.1%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+1.8%
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.0%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.4%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.0%
1.04
Betano
1.07
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+5.5%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
91.7%
1.06
Betano
1.08
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Unibet
1.05
-
+4.0%
Under 5.5
90.6%
1.04
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.06
Betfair
1.05
Unibet
1.04
BetVictor
1.03
+0.9%
Away +2 handicap
89.6%
1.06
Bet365
1.07
Betfair
1.05
10Bet
1.05
-
-
+2.4%
Away under 3.5 goals
88.2%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
1xBet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.06
Betfair
1.05
+1.3%
Home under 2.5 goals
87.0%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Bet365
1.10
Marathonbet
1.08
1xBet
1.08
10Bet
1.08
+0.7%
Home under 1.5 2H goals
86.2%
1.12
Betano
1.15
10Bet
1.12
1xBet
1.10
Marathonbet
1.10
-
+3.4%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.8%
1.12
Bet365
1.14
William Hil
1.14
Betano
1.14
10Bet
1.12
Betfair
1.11
+2.3%
Away over 0.5 goals
84.4%
1.13
Betano
1.15
Bet365
1.14
10Bet
1.13
BetVictor
1.13
1xBet
1.13
+2.4%
Over 1.5
83.5%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.26
Betano
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Unibet
1.20
Bet365
1.20
+5.7%
Away under 1.5 HT goals
83.1%
1.17
Betano
1.19
10Bet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Unibet
1.15
+3.8%
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.17
William Hil
1.20
Betano
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Bet365
1.17
+0.7%
Under 5.5 cards
80.2%
1.30
Unibet
1.33
Betano
1.27
-
-
-
+8.8%
Under 2.5 2H goals
80.0%
1.25
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
+5.5%
Over 19.5 fouls
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
79.8%
1.16
Betano
1.20
Bet365
1.20
10Bet
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.15
-0.5%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.6%
1.30
Betano
1.34
10Bet
1.30
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.29
-
+6.6%
Under 11.5 corners
76.1%
1.29
Betano
1.36
Unibet
1.32
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.24
-
+4.9%
Draw or Away
75.5%
1.25
Betano
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
1xBet
1.28
William Hil
1.25
10Bet
1.25
-0.1%
Away +1 handicap
75.5%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.28
Bet365
1.25
10Bet
1.25
Unibet
1.22
Betfair
1.22
+2.8%
Home or Away
75.2%
1.24
1xBet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.28
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Unibet
1.25
-0.5%
Over 2.5 cards
74.5%
1.33
Pinnacle
1.36
Betano
1.33
Unibet
1.30
-
-
+4.7%
Over 0.5 HT goals
73.3%
1.31
Betano
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.33
1xBet
1.33
William Hil
1.30
+1.5%
Away under 2.5 goals
71.6%
1.30
Betano
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Bet365
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
-0.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
71.1%
1.36
Betano
1.38
Pinnacle
1.38
Unibet
1.37
BetVictor
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
+2.9%
Home +2 handicap
70.8%
1.31
Bet365
1.33
Unibet
1.32
10Bet
1.30
Marathonbet
1.30
Betfair
1.29
+2.2%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Angers · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Sidiki Cherif20%
Jim Allevinah17%
Prosper Peter16%
Himad Abdelli15%
Goduine Koyalipou15%
Amine Sbai15%
Djibirin Harouna13%
Yassin Belkhdim7%
Lilian Raolisoa6%
Louis Mouton6%
Lanroy Machine4%
Ousmane Camara3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Carlens Arcus0%
Pierrick Capelle0%
Jordan Lefort0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Branco Van den Boomen0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Pona25%
Haris Belkebla24%
Carlens Arcus21%
Yassin Belkhdim21%
Pierrick Capelle17%
Sidiki Cherif15%
Abdoulaye Bamba14%
Branco Van den Boomen13%
Djibirin Harouna13%
Jacques Ekomié12%
Marius Louer11%
Lilian Raolisoa9%
Himad Abdelli8%
Amine Sbai7%
Ousmane Camara6%
Louis Mouton6%
Lanroy Machine4%
Hervé Koffi3%
Jordan Lefort3%
Goduine Koyalipou0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Prosper Peter0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lilian Raolisoa12%
Carlens Arcus11%
Goduine Koyalipou8%
Yassin Belkhdim7%
Branco Van den Boomen7%
Djibirin Harouna7%
Pierrick Capelle6%
Jordan Lefort6%
Amine Sbai4%
Louis Mouton3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Himad Abdelli0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Florent Hanin0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Ousmane Camara0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Lanroy Machine0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Sidiki Cherif0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
Prosper Peter0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Goduine Koyalipou15%
Yassin Belkhdim11%
Himad Abdelli8%
Branco Van den Boomen7%
Prosper Peter6%
Louis Mouton6%
Sidiki Cherif5%
Lanroy Machine4%
Amine Sbai4%
Ousmane Camara3%
Abdoulaye Bamba0%
Haris Belkebla0%
Carlens Arcus0%
Pierrick Capelle0%
Jordan Lefort0%
Jim Allevinah0%
Hervé Koffi0%
Florent Hanin0%
Lilian Raolisoa0%
Melvin Zinga0%
Jacques Ekomié0%
Emmanuel Biumla0%
Oumar Pona0%
Justin-Noel Kalumba0%
Dan Sinaté0%
Marius Courcoul0%
Marius Louer0%
Djibirin Harouna0%
Rennes · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Esteban Lepaul49%
Breel Embolo29%
Mousa Tamari19%
Mohamed Kader Meite16%
Ludovic Blas14%
Nordan Mukiele12%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal10%
Seko Fofana8%
Quentin Merlin8%
Valentin Rongier6%
Sebastian Szymański6%
Mahdi Camara6%
Przemysław Frankowski5%
Anthony Rouault4%
Glen Kamara0%
Brice Samba0%
Lilian Brassier0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Alidu Seidu0%
Djaoui Cissé0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Przemysław Frankowski26%
Jérémy Jacquet24%
Anthony Rouault21%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal19%
Valentin Rongier18%
Brice Samba15%
Mahdi Camara14%
Djaoui Cissé12%
Breel Embolo12%
Sebastian Szymański12%
Mousa Tamari11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Mahamadou Nagida10%
Esteban Lepaul9%
Alidu Seidu8%
Quentin Merlin8%
Lilian Brassier7%
Ludovic Blas3%
Glen Kamara0%
Seko Fofana0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Mohamed Kader Meite0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Arnaud Nordin30%
Mousa Tamari19%
Sebastian Szymański18%
Quentin Merlin17%
Ludovic Blas14%
Esteban Lepaul14%
Valentin Rongier12%
Przemysław Frankowski11%
Mohamed Kader Meite11%
Breel Embolo9%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal5%
Anthony Rouault4%
Alidu Seidu4%
Lilian Brassier3%
Mahdi Camara3%
Glen Kamara0%
Brice Samba0%
Seko Fofana0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Djaoui Cissé0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Esteban Lepaul34%
Mousa Tamari22%
Breel Embolo15%
Ludovic Blas11%
Mohamed Kader Meite11%
Arnaud Nordin10%
Djaoui Cissé8%
Mahdi Camara6%
Alidu Seidu4%
Valentin Rongier3%
Glen Kamara0%
Przemysław Frankowski0%
Brice Samba0%
Seko Fofana0%
Sebastian Szymański0%
Lilian Brassier0%
Anthony Rouault0%
Fabian Rieder0%
Quentin Merlin0%
Mathys Silistrie0%
Jérémy Jacquet0%
Nordan Mukiele0%
Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal0%
Mahamadou Nagida0%
Yassir Zabiri0%
Lucas Rosier0%
Elias Legendre Quiñonez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (26)
€1477m
MON (26)
€326m
LIL (27)
€312m
STR (32)
€304m
LYO (32)
€293m
REN (26)
€241m
MAR (22)
€225m
LEN (27)
€187m
PF (37)
€176m
NIC (28)
€152m
TOU (24)
€115m
LOR (24)
€87m
AUX (29)
€84m
ANG (23)
€73m
SB2 (20)
€64m
LH (25)
€55m
ET (23)
€36m
LM (26)
€24m
Angers's squad is €168m less valuable than Rennes's (€73m vs €241m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (10)
€638m
MON (9)
€148m
LIL (13)
€133m
LYO (9)
€122m
STR (13)
€112m
MAR (9)
€91m
REN (8)
€87m
NIC (8)
€62m
PF (13)
€59m
LEN (8)
€52m
ANG (9)
€30m
TOU (7)
€30m
SB2 (6)
€25m
AUX (11)
€23m
LOR (8)
€20m
LH (10)
€9m
ET (7)
€7m
LM (6)
€4m
Angers's attack is €57m less valuable than Rennes's (€30m vs €87m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (5)
€430m
LIL (4)
€102m
MON (5)
€84m
LYO (8)
€82m
MAR (5)
€68m
STR (6)
€56m
PF (7)
€54m
REN (5)
€44m
TOU (7)
€39m
LOR (5)
€32m
NIC (9)
€31m
AUX (5)
€28m
LEN (5)
€24m
LH (5)
€23m
SB2 (6)
€20m
ANG (3)
€11m
ET (6)
€11m
LM (8)
€5m
Angers's midfield is €33m less valuable than Rennes's (€11m vs €44m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PSG (11)
€409m
STR (13)
€136m
LEN (14)
€112m
REN (13)
€109m
MON (12)
€93m
LYO (15)
€89m
LIL (10)
€76m
MAR (8)
€66m
PF (17)
€62m
NIC (11)
€60m
TOU (10)
€46m
LOR (11)
€35m
AUX (13)
€33m
ANG (11)
€32m
LH (10)
€23m
SB2 (8)
€19m
ET (10)
€17m
LM (12)
€15m
Angers's defence is €78m less valuable than Rennes's (€32m vs €109m).
France: Ligue 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Lille
Monaco
Paris FC
Lyon
Estac Troyes
Lens
Marseille
Strasbourg
Stade Brestois 29
Paris Saint Germain
Le Mans
Le Havre
Lorient
Toulouse
Nice
Auxerre