Annan Athletic’s recent win over Dumbarton and Edinburgh City’s draw against Forfar set the stage for a high-scoring encounter, with the model projecting 3.8 goals on average. The favourite result is a home win, with probabilities of 49% for a win, 22% for a draw and 28% for an away win. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 8.9% chance, while the expected total of 3.8 goals points to a 3-goal match, the most likely total of 3 goals occurring 21% of the time. Annan’s home form shows 2.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opposition, whereas Edinburgh City averages only 0.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded away. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 89.7%, Under 25.5 fouls at 85.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 80.6%, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.4%, Under 5.5 cards at 73.3%, Over 2.5 at 72.4% with a 4% edge, BTTS Yes at 71.5% (miss) and Under 11.5 corners at 71.0%.
Results analysis
Annan Athletic’s win extends their recent run, ending a five-match sequence with a victory that lifted them from a narrow win to a decisive 3-0 triumph over Edinburgh City. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, and the final score matched that prediction. The pre-match probability for the favoured outcome was 49 percent. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit at 89.7 percent, Under 25.5 fouls at 85.1 percent, Over 2.5 cards at 80.6 percent, Under 23.5 fouls at 73.4 percent, Under 5.5 cards at 73.3 percent, Over 2.5 goals at 72.4 percent, and Under 11.5 corners at 71.0 percent. The BTTS Yes selection missed, reflecting the single-sided nature of the match.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✓ Hit
49.4%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.28
Edge
-22.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
22.3%
Avg Implied 16.8% · @ 5.46
Edge
+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
28.3%
Avg Implied 11.5% · @ 8.01
Edge
+16.8%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.80
1.69
1.50
1.00
2.14
vs Stronger (20)
1.20
1.85
1.45
1.64
0.89
2.11
vs Similar (9)
1.89
1.89
2.75
1.50
1.20
2.20
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.9
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
3.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
2.27
1.44
2.19
0.86
2.36
vs Stronger (20)
1.15
2.50
1.30
2.60
1.00
2.40
vs Similar (9)
1.22
1.78
1.80
1.40
0.50
2.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
89.7%
Under 1.5
10.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
72.4%
@ 1.36+3.9%
Under 2.5
27.6%
@ 2.96-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
51.8%
Under 3.5
48.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
71.5%
No
28.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
8.9%
2-1
8.7%
2-2
7.0%
1-2
6.5%
3-1
6.2%
2-0
5.4%
3-2
5.0%
1-0
4.2%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.1%
3.0%
3.0%
1.6%
0.7%
1
4.2%
8.9%
6.5%
3.5%
1.4%
2
5.4%
8.7%
7.0%
3.7%
1.5%
3
3.9%
6.2%
5.0%
2.7%
1.1%
4
2.1%
3.3%
2.7%
1.4%
0.6%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Falkirk
2.50
Hamilton
2.06
Alloa
1.56
Montrose
1.47
Cove Rangers
1.36
Kelty Hearts
1.22
Queen of Sth
1.14
Annan Athletic
1.08
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
0.39
Annan Athletic is 0.69 points better than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.08 vs 0.39).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Falkirk
2.67
Hamilton
2.03
Alloa
1.67
Cove Rangers
1.61
Montrose
1.61
Annan Athletic
1.53
Kelty Hearts
1.33
Queen of Sth
1.28
Stirling
1.08
Edinburgh City
1.06
Annan Athletic is 0.47 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.53 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Falkirk
0.78
Hamilton
0.78
Queen of Sth
1.47
Alloa
1.53
Montrose
1.58
Stirling
1.61
Kelty Hearts
1.75
Cove Rangers
1.75
Annan Athletic
1.89
Edinburgh City
2.72
Annan Athletic is 0.83 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.89 vs 2.72).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 3.3 · Against 6.0 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.8 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.6 · Against 11.0 · Total 22.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 2.0 · Against 7.6 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.4 · Against 1.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 11.0 · Total 23.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.9
9.1
4.4
4.6
4.3
19.9
20.7
19.0
vs Stronger (31)
8.6
9.2
7.9
4.3
4.4
4.1
19.9
20.1
19.7
vs Similar (16)
11.1
11.7
10.6
4.8
5.0
4.7
20.8
22.3
19.6
vs Weaker (3)
10.3
9.0
13.0
4.0
4.5
3.0
14.7
20.0
4.0
% over line
44%
44%
44%
66%
72%
60%
38%
44%
32%
% under line
56%
56%
56%
34%
28%
40%
62%
56%
68%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.7
9.5
3.6
3.6
3.5
20.1
20.6
19.5
vs Stronger (29)
9.4
9.5
9.4
3.9
3.9
4.0
20.8
20.7
20.8
vs Similar (18)
10.0
10.2
9.8
3.1
3.3
2.9
19.1
20.4
17.8
vs Weaker (3)
9.0
9.5
8.0
2.7
2.5
3.0
19.3
20.5
17.0
% over line
58%
59%
57%
46%
44%
48%
36%
41%
30%
% under line
42%
41%
43%
54%
56%
52%
64%
59%
70%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kelty Hearts
11.0
Hamilton
10.8
Falkirk
10.4
Montrose
10.3
Stirling
10.2
Queen of Sth
10.0
Cove Rangers
9.8
Edinburgh City
9.6
Annan Athletic
9.5
Alloa
9.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Annan Athletic
4.4
Montrose
4.3
Hamilton
4.2
Falkirk
4.2
Stirling
4.1
Queen of Sth
3.8
Kelty Hearts
3.8
Edinburgh City
3.6
Cove Rangers
3.5
Alloa
3.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Montrose
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.1
Falkirk
22.0
Hamilton
22.0
Stirling
20.9
Queen of Sth
20.3
Edinburgh City
20.1
Annan Athletic
19.9
Cove Rangers
19.7
Alloa
19.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
52.8%
Under 9.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.7%
Under 3.5
37.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
42.2%
Under 21.5
57.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.90
0.88
1.00
0.50
0.79
vs Stronger (20)
0.55
0.90
0.73
1.18
0.33
0.56
vs Similar (9)
1.11
1.00
1.50
0.75
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.20
0.88
1.19
0.29
1.21
vs Stronger (20)
0.45
1.20
0.70
1.20
0.20
1.20
vs Similar (9)
1.00
1.11
1.40
1.00
0.50
1.25
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.90
0.81
0.50
0.50
1.36
vs Stronger (20)
0.65
0.95
0.73
0.45
0.56
1.56
vs Similar (9)
0.78
0.89
1.25
0.75
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.07
0.56
1.00
0.57
1.14
vs Stronger (20)
0.70
1.30
0.60
1.40
0.80
1.20
vs Similar (9)
0.22
0.67
0.40
0.40
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
37% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
85.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 23.5 fouls
73.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
72.4%
1.36
-
-
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (27)
€6m
KH (4)
€1m
AA (2)
€0m
MON (4)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
CR (2)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (9)
€2m
KH (3)
€1m
AA (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (5)
€1m
MON (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CR (0)
€0m
KH (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FAL (13)
€3m
KH (1)
€0m
CR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
MON (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League One 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League One stats & trends →