Annan Athletic’s home form shows a modest 1.4 goals per game while conceding 1.8, whereas Edinburgh City, on the road, averages 1.25 scored and only 0.75 allowed against similar opposition. The model therefore favours an away win, with a 48% chance, a draw at 24% and a home win at 29%. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring match, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.3% probability. The single most probable total is three goals, at 22%. Edinburgh City’s recent draw and Annan’s recent win hint at a balanced contest. The suggested picks are: Over 1.5 goals, 86.6%; Over 2.5 cards, 85.0%; Under 11.5 corners, 75.5%; Over 19.5 fouls, 74.4%; and Under 25.5 fouls, 72.8% (miss). The model’s selection for the match result remains an away win.
Results analysis
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, Edinburgh City, failed to deliver an away win, with the match ending in a 1-1 draw. The model had picked an away victory with a 48% probability, but that call was wrong. The final score of 1-1 matched the model’s most likely score of 1-1, which had a 10.3% chance. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Over 1.5 goals hit at 86.6%, Over 2.5 cards hit at 85.0%, Under 11.5 corners hit at 75.5%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 74.4%, while Under 25.5 fouls missed at 72.8%. The game’s outcome reflected the teams’ recent form, with Annan Athletic coming off a win and Edinburgh City coming off a draw.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
28.6%
Avg Implied 38.2% · @ 2.35
Edge
-9.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.8%
Avg Implied 26.5% · @ 3.39
Edge
-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City win✗ Miss
47.5%
Avg Implied 35.2% · @ 2.55
Edge
+12.3%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
2.43
1.86
2.57
0.81
2.31
vs Stronger (17)
1.41
2.82
2.38
2.62
0.56
3.00
vs Similar (10)
1.10
1.70
1.40
1.80
0.80
1.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
2.67
0.00
6.00
2.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.37
1.63
1.60
1.40
1.13
1.87
vs Stronger (15)
1.73
2.07
2.43
1.57
1.12
2.50
vs Similar (8)
1.12
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
0.75
vs Weaker (7)
0.86
1.43
0.75
1.25
1.00
1.67
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.6%
@ 1.61+9.7%
Under 2.5
33.4%
@ 2.12-9.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
10.3%
1-2
9.1%
2-1
7.0%
2-2
6.8%
0-2
6.1%
1-3
5.9%
0-1
5.4%
2-3
4.4%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Edinburgh City goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
5.4%
6.1%
4.0%
1.9%
1
3.9%
10%
9.1%
5.9%
2.9%
2
3.6%
7.0%
6.8%
4.4%
2.1%
3
1.8%
3.4%
3.3%
2.2%
1.1%
4
0.7%
1.3%
1.2%
0.8%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Edinburgh City goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
East Kilbride
1.92
Spartans
1.78
Clyde
1.56
Forfar
1.39
Stranraer
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Annan Athletic
1.14
Dumbarton
1.11
Edinburgh City
1.08
Stirling
1.06
Annan Athletic is 0.06 points better than Edinburgh City in terms of average points per game (1.14 vs 1.08).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
East Kilbride
2.14
Spartans
1.67
Clyde
1.61
Elgin
1.42
Forfar
1.42
Annan Athletic
1.31
Dumbarton
1.31
Stirling
1.28
Stranraer
1.28
Edinburgh City
1.25
Annan Athletic is 0.06 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals scored per game (1.31 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartans
1.08
Clyde
1.14
Stranraer
1.28
East Kilbride
1.28
Forfar
1.31
Elgin
1.53
Annan Athletic
1.61
Dumbarton
1.69
Stirling
1.75
Edinburgh City
2.00
Annan Athletic is 0.39 goals better than Edinburgh City in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.4 · Against 6.1 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 1.9 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 9.9 · Against 12.9 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Edinburgh City
For 4.9 · Against 4.5 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.2 · Against 3.4 · Total 6.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 10.9 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
9.6
9.5
3.2
2.8
3.6
20.6
21.0
20.3
vs Stronger (32)
9.1
8.6
9.6
3.2
3.3
3.1
20.1
21.9
18.4
vs Similar (15)
10.1
11.8
8.8
3.7
2.1
5.1
21.9
19.0
24.1
vs Weaker (3)
12.0
9.0
15.0
1.7
1.0
2.0
18.0
19.0
17.0
% over line
50%
52%
48%
46%
30%
59%
39%
48%
30%
% under line
50%
48%
52%
54%
70%
41%
61%
52%
70%
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.1
9.7
8.5
4.6
4.6
4.5
24.3
26.0
22.6
vs Stronger (27)
9.1
9.9
8.5
4.4
4.2
4.6
24.2
25.8
22.8
vs Similar (11)
9.0
8.8
9.2
5.4
6.0
4.6
24.6
26.3
22.6
vs Weaker (12)
9.0
10.2
8.0
4.2
4.2
4.2
23.9
25.8
22.3
% over line
42%
48%
36%
72%
72%
72%
70%
81%
59%
% under line
58%
52%
64%
28%
28%
28%
30%
19%
41%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
East Kilbride
11.1
Dumbarton
10.9
Stirling
10.5
Elgin
10.0
Annan Athletic
9.9
Stranraer
9.7
Clyde
9.6
Forfar
9.4
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
East Kilbride
5.5
Edinburgh City
5.3
Elgin
4.9
Forfar
4.9
Stirling
4.5
Clyde
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Spartans
4.3
Dumbarton
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.8
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
East Kilbride
27.8
Forfar
24.9
Edinburgh City
24.2
Elgin
24.0
Clyde
23.0
Stirling
22.0
Stranraer
21.7
Spartans
21.3
Annan Athletic
20.6
Dumbarton
19.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.4%
Under 9.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
69.4%
Under 3.5
30.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
58.8%
Under 21.5
41.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.07
0.43
1.14
0.50
1.00
vs Stronger (17)
0.53
1.24
0.62
1.00
0.44
1.44
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.70
0.20
0.80
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
4.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
0.73
0.87
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (15)
0.80
0.80
1.29
0.86
0.38
0.75
vs Similar (8)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.25
1.00
0.25
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.57
0.50
0.50
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.37
1.43
1.43
0.31
1.31
vs Stronger (17)
0.88
1.59
1.75
1.62
0.11
1.56
vs Similar (10)
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.00
0.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
2.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Edinburgh City) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Edinburgh City
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.90
0.87
0.53
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (15)
0.93
1.27
1.14
0.71
0.75
1.75
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.25
1.00
0.00
0.25
0.50
vs Weaker (7)
0.43
0.86
0.25
0.75
0.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Edinburgh City over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
EK (4)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
EK (3)
€0m
CLY (2)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
STI (1)
€0m
EC (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EK (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EK (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
CLY (0)
€0m
EC (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Edinburgh City have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
East Kilbride
Spartans
Clyde
Forfar
Stranraer
Elgin
Dumbarton
Stirling