Annan Athletic’s recent home form, marked by a 0-1 loss to Edinburgh City and a string of two defeats, suggests a cautious start, while Elgin’s away record shows a 3-3 draw with Spartans and a 2-1 win in the last five matches. The model favours an away win, with a 43 % chance, a 33 % chance of a home win and a 24 % chance of a draw. The expected total of 3.5 goals points to a high-scoring encounter, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.1 % probability. Annan Athletic averages 1.14 goals scored and 3.0 conceded at home against stronger opposition, whereas Elgin averages 2.11 goals scored and 1.56 conceded away against weaker teams. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (97.3 %), Under 6.5 (93.5 %), Home under 3.5 goals (91.8 %), Away under 3.5 goals (87.9 %), Over 1.5 (87.3 %), Under 5.5 (85.8 %), Away over 0.5 goals (84.6 %) and Over 19.5 fouls (83.8 %). These selections reflect the model’s confidence in a low-goal, high-foul match with Elgin likely to edge the result.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Elgin win
40.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
2.00
1.47
1.93
0.93
2.07
vs Stronger (12)
1.17
2.92
1.17
3.33
1.17
2.50
vs Similar (10)
1.40
1.30
2.00
0.80
0.80
1.80
vs Weaker (8)
1.00
1.50
1.25
1.25
0.75
1.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.77
1.67
1.53
1.80
2.00
vs Stronger (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
1.45
2.91
1.83
2.83
1.00
3.00
vs Weaker (18)
1.83
1.11
1.56
0.67
2.11
1.56
Clean sheet %
23% (-3pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
86.4%
Under 1.5
13.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
66.2%
Under 2.5
33.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
44.4%
Under 3.5
55.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
67.9%
No
32.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.6%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
7.9%
2-2
7.0%
0-2
5.1%
1-3
5.0%
0-1
4.9%
1-0
4.5%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Elgin goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
4.9%
5.1%
3.0%
1.3%
1
4.5%
11%
8.5%
5.0%
2.2%
2
4.5%
7.9%
7.0%
4.1%
1.8%
3
2.5%
4.3%
3.8%
2.2%
1.0%
4
1.0%
1.8%
1.6%
0.9%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Elgin goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Elgin
2.20
Clyde
2.00
Forfar
1.60
Edinburgh City
1.60
Stranraer
1.40
Spartans
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Kelty Hearts
1.20
Stirling
0.80
Dumbarton
0.60
Annan Athletic is 1.00 points worse than Elgin in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 2.20).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Elgin
3.40
Spartans
2.40
Clyde
2.20
Edinburgh City
1.40
Kelty Hearts
1.40
Forfar
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.20
Stirling
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Dumbarton
0.40
Annan Athletic is 2.20 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals scored per game (1.20 vs 3.40).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Forfar
1.00
Elgin
1.00
Clyde
1.20
Stranraer
1.20
Annan Athletic
1.40
Edinburgh City
1.60
Dumbarton
2.00
Kelty Hearts
2.00
Spartans
2.20
Stirling
2.40
Annan Athletic is 0.40 goals worse than Elgin in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 1.00).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 4.0 · Against 5.0 · Total 9.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.5 · Against 13.3 · Total 23.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Elgin
For 3.9 · Against 4.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.1 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.1 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
9.8
10.1
3.2
3.2
3.2
23.8
23.8
23.8
vs Stronger (20)
9.6
9.8
9.3
3.2
3.0
3.4
24.5
24.8
24.2
vs Similar (18)
9.1
8.4
9.9
3.6
3.6
3.7
24.5
23.9
25.1
vs Weaker (12)
12.1
12.5
11.8
2.6
3.0
2.3
21.4
22.0
20.8
% over line
50%
50%
50%
46%
46%
46%
72%
67%
78%
% under line
50%
50%
50%
54%
54%
54%
28%
33%
22%
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.3
10.8
3.0
3.0
2.9
22.8
21.6
23.8
vs Stronger (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
9.7
11.0
8.6
2.5
2.6
2.4
23.7
21.2
25.6
vs Weaker (33)
10.9
10.1
11.6
3.3
3.3
3.3
22.5
21.7
23.2
% over line
61%
59%
63%
42%
50%
33%
61%
53%
68%
% under line
39%
41%
37%
58%
50%
67%
39%
47%
32%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Stirling
10.9
Dumbarton
10.4
Stranraer
10.3
Elgin
10.3
Annan Athletic
9.9
Clyde
9.8
Kelty Hearts
9.5
Edinburgh City
9.2
Spartans
9.2
Forfar
9.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Edinburgh City
5.1
Forfar
4.3
Elgin
4.3
Kelty Hearts
4.2
Clyde
4.2
Stranraer
4.2
Spartans
4.1
Annan Athletic
4.0
Stirling
4.0
Dumbarton
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Forfar
24.0
Edinburgh City
23.9
Elgin
22.7
Kelty Hearts
22.5
Stranraer
22.3
Annan Athletic
22.2
Clyde
21.7
Stirling
21.1
Dumbarton
20.5
Spartans
20.4
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.8%
Under 9.5
47.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
54.9%
Under 3.5
45.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
71.2%
Under 21.5
28.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Annan Athletic or Draw
59.8%
Avg Implied -
35%
24%
40%
covers Annan Athletic + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic or Elgin
75.5%
Avg Implied -
35%
24%
40%
covers Annan Athletic + Elgin
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Elgin
64.7%
Avg Implied -
35%
24%
40%
covers Draw + Elgin
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5
Over
80.7%
Under
19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5
Over
49.0%
Under
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 3.5
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5
Over
82.8%
Under
17.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5
Over
52.6%
Under
47.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 3.5
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Annan Athletic, so a minus line means Annan Athletic give that many goals of a start and Elgin receive them. At -1, Annan Athletic must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Annan Athletic win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Annan Athletic)
Annan Athletic -2
7.3%
Draw -2
10.7%
Elgin +2
81.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Annan Athletic)
Annan Athletic -1
18.1%
Draw -1
17.3%
Elgin +1
64.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Annan Athletic)
Annan Athletic +1
59.8%
Draw +1
18.6%
Elgin -1
21.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Annan Athletic)
Annan Athletic +2
78.4%
Draw +2
12.3%
Elgin -2
9.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.73
1.00
0.60
0.27
0.87
vs Stronger (12)
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.83
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (10)
0.70
0.30
1.40
0.20
0.00
0.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
1.12
1.25
0.75
0.25
1.50
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
0.93
0.47
0.87
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.09
1.00
0.83
0.40
1.40
vs Weaker (18)
1.00
0.56
0.89
0.22
1.11
0.89
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.7%
Under 0.5
25.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
40.3%
Under 1.5
59.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
Under 2.5
85.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HT
Over
46.5%
Under
53.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HT
Over
14.0%
Under
86.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HT
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 HT
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 HT
Over
18.0%
Under
82.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 HT
Over
3.7%
Under
96.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.27
0.47
1.33
0.67
1.20
vs Stronger (12)
0.67
2.08
0.67
2.50
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.70
1.00
0.60
0.60
0.80
1.40
vs Weaker (8)
0.25
0.38
0.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
37% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Elgin) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Elgin
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
1.00
0.73
1.07
0.93
0.93
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
vs Similar (11)
0.73
1.82
0.83
2.00
0.60
1.60
vs Weaker (18)
0.83
0.56
0.67
0.44
1.00
0.67
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
77.6%
Under 0.5
22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
50.1%
Under 1.5
49.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.7%
Under 2.5
76.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2H
Over
52.2%
Under
47.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2H
Over
19.5%
Under
80.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2H
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 0.5 2H
Over
59.0%
Under
41.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 1.5 2H
Over
22.9%
Under
77.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Elgin over/under 2.5 2H
Over
5.9%
Under
94.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 7.5
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 2H goals
94.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 HT goals
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
83.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
82.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
81.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
78.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 2H goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
74.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
71.2%
-
-
-
-
-
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Under 11.5 corners
71.0%
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No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Scotland: League Two 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →
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Clyde
Forfar
Edinburgh City
Stranraer
Spartans
Kelty Hearts
Stirling
Dumbarton