Annan Athletic and Forfar face a tightly contested match, with the model favouring a home win at 38%. The draw probability sits at 28% and the away win at 34%. The average goal tally is 2.8, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 25% chance. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.2% probability, reflecting the evenly matched attacking and defensive figures. Annan’s home form shows 1.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded against similar opposition, while Forfar’s away record is 1.0 scored and 1.43 conceded. Suggested selections include Under 5.5 cards at 79.3%, Under 25.5 fouls at 78.6%, Over 1.5 at 77.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 75.5%, and Over 2.5 cards at 75.4%. The match is a fine balance, with no clear favourite beyond the model’s pick.
Results analysis
An unexpected turn unfolded as Forfar secured a 2-0 victory, extending their recent run that began with a draw. The pre-match favourite was the home side, with the model assigning a 38% chance of winning; the model’s call proved wrong. The final score of 0-2 confirmed the away win. The model’s selections performed variably: “Under 5.5 cards” hit at 79.3%, “Under 25.5 fouls” missed at 78.6%, “Over 1.5” hit at 77.8%, “Under 11.5 corners” hit at 75.5%, and “Over 2.5 cards” hit at 75.4%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage and every pick was reported once.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Annan Athletic win✗ Miss
37.8%
Avg Implied 44.0% · @ 2.09
Edge
-6.2%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.7%
Avg Implied 26.3% · @ 3.49
Edge
+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Forfar win✓ Hit
34.5%
Avg Implied 29.7% · @ 3.09
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Annan Athletic
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.77
1.80
1.93
1.71
1.62
1.88
vs Stronger (13)
2.00
2.31
2.14
2.29
1.83
2.33
vs Similar (13)
1.62
1.54
1.40
1.20
1.75
1.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.50
1.00
2.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.17
1.06
1.25
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
0.87
0.88
1.00
0.86
0.71
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.47
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+7pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
77.8%
Under 1.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
52.6%
@ 1.73-1.2%
Under 2.5
47.4%
@ 2.02+1.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
30.4%
Under 3.5
69.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
57.6%
No
42.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
1-0
7.6%
0-0
7.4%
0-1
7.2%
2-0
6.3%
2-2
5.8%
Annan Athletic goals ↓
Forfar goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.4%
7.2%
5.7%
2.6%
0.9%
1
7.6%
13%
8.1%
3.7%
1.2%
2
6.3%
8.5%
5.8%
2.6%
0.9%
3
3.0%
4.1%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.1%
1.5%
1.0%
0.4%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Annan Athletic goals (down), columns = Forfar goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Stirling
2.03
Dumbarton
1.72
Annan Athletic
1.42
East Fife
1.39
Forfar
1.33
Stenhousemuir
1.31
Stranraer
1.25
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.17
Elgin
1.11
Albion Rvs
1.08
Annan Athletic is 0.08 points better than Forfar in terms of average points per game (1.42 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Stirling
1.86
Annan Athletic
1.69
East Fife
1.50
Stenhousemuir
1.42
Dumbarton
1.36
Albion Rvs
1.31
Elgin
1.22
Stranraer
1.19
Forfar
1.03
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.00
Annan Athletic is 0.67 goals better than Forfar in terms of goals scored per game (1.69 vs 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Stirling
1.03
Dumbarton
1.08
Forfar
1.19
Bonnyrigg Rose
1.31
Albion Rvs
1.33
East Fife
1.39
Annan Athletic
1.42
Stenhousemuir
1.53
Stranraer
1.58
Elgin
1.72
Annan Athletic is 0.22 goals worse than Forfar in terms of goals conceded per game (1.42 vs 1.19).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Annan Athletic
For 5.5 · Against 4.9 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 1.6 · Total 3.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 8.1 · Against 7.1 · Total 15.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Forfar
For 4.6 · Against 6.0 · Total 10.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 9.0 · Total 20.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Annan Athletic
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
9.6
9.7
3.7
3.3
4.1
20.6
21.0
20.2
vs Stronger (22)
9.1
9.9
8.3
3.5
2.7
4.4
19.9
19.3
20.5
vs Similar (22)
10.4
9.9
10.8
3.4
3.3
3.5
21.5
23.0
20.3
vs Weaker (6)
9.0
7.3
10.7
5.7
5.7
5.7
19.7
20.3
19.0
% over line
50%
54%
46%
54%
54%
54%
47%
35%
58%
% under line
50%
46%
54%
46%
46%
46%
53%
65%
42%
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
10.4
9.4
3.5
3.3
3.7
21.6
20.7
22.5
vs Stronger (23)
10.5
11.2
9.7
3.6
3.2
4.0
20.7
19.8
21.7
vs Similar (27)
9.4
9.7
9.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
22.3
21.5
23.2
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
52%
62%
42%
52%
42%
62%
44%
42%
46%
% under line
48%
38%
58%
48%
58%
38%
56%
58%
54%
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Dumbarton
10.3
Stenhousemuir
10.1
Forfar
9.9
Annan Athletic
9.6
Albion Rvs
9.3
Bonnyrigg Rose
9.2
Stranraer
9.1
East Fife
9.1
Stirling
8.8
Elgin
8.6
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Bonnyrigg Rose
4.6
Dumbarton
4.3
Stranraer
4.3
Elgin
4.2
Stirling
4.0
Stenhousemuir
3.9
Annan Athletic
3.7
Albion Rvs
3.7
East Fife
3.7
Forfar
3.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Elgin
22.3
Stirling
22.0
Stranraer
21.7
Forfar
21.6
Bonnyrigg Rose
21.6
Stenhousemuir
21.5
Albion Rvs
21.5
Dumbarton
20.9
East Fife
20.8
Annan Athletic
20.6
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.4%
Under 9.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
55.6%
Under 3.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
51.6%
Under 21.5
48.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
1.00
0.64
0.93
0.62
1.06
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.38
0.43
1.57
0.50
1.17
vs Similar (13)
0.62
0.77
0.40
0.20
0.75
1.12
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.50
2.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.60
0.44
0.75
0.36
0.43
vs Stronger (15)
0.27
0.40
0.25
0.50
0.29
0.29
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.62
1.00
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Annan Athletic
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.80
1.29
0.79
1.00
0.81
vs Stronger (13)
1.54
0.92
1.71
0.71
1.33
1.17
vs Similar (13)
1.00
0.77
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.62
vs Weaker (4)
0.25
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Forfar) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Forfar
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.57
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.64
vs Stronger (15)
0.60
0.47
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.43
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.57
0.86
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (Annan Athletic) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Annan Athletic over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Annan Athletic over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Forfar over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
79.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
78.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (2)
€0m
STE (2)
€0m
FOR (1)
€0m
STI (3)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
EF (1)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Forfar have a similar squad value (both €0m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AA (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Forfar have a similar attack value (both €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
EF (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
DUM (0)
€0m
FOR (0)
€0m
STR (0)
€0m
STE (0)
€0m
AA (0)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FOR (1)
€0m
STE (1)
€0m
DUM (1)
€0m
STR (1)
€0m
STI (1)
€0m
AA (1)
€0m
EF (0)
€0m
Annan Athletic and Forfar have a similar defence value (both €0m).
Scotland: League Two 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Scotland: League Two stats & trends →