PythiaFootballBETA
Annan Athletic and Forfar face a finely balanced encounter, with the model favouring an away win. The odds sit at 34% for a home victory, 26% for a draw, and 40% for Forfar to lift the trophy. The expected total goals hover around 3.1, yet the most likely total is two, reflecting a modest scoring outlook. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12% chance, underscoring the evenly matched nature of the sides.
At home, Annan Athletic typically nets 1.2 goals and concedes 1.8 against similarly ranked opponents, while Forfar on the road averages 1.71 goals scored and only 0.86 conceded. These figures suggest Forfar’s attack will find the back of the net more often than the home side’s defense will allow.
The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 83.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.5%, and Under 11.5 corners at 72.2%. Each of these picks carries its own probability, independent of the match-result percentages.
The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an Away win with a 40% chance, failed to materialise. Instead, Annan Athletic turned the tables, winning 3-1 and extending their recent win streak. The model’s call was wrong. The model’s other selections all proved accurate: Over 2.5 cards hit at 83.1%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.9%, Over 1.5 goals at 82.5%, and Under 11.5 corners at 72.2%. The final score of 3-1 confirmed a home triumph, defying the predicted 2-1 or 1-2 outcomes and leaving the model’s favourite on the wrong side of the result.
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.30 | 2.17 | 1.80 | 2.20 | 0.80 | 2.13 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 1.56 | 2.44 | 2.33 | 2.00 | 0.57 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (10) | 1.00 | 1.70 | 1.20 | 1.80 | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 2.25 | 0.00 | 6.00 | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-13pp vs league) | |||||
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 1.20 | 0.80 | 1.13 | 1.13 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.53 | 1.60 | 0.44 | 1.33 | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.67 | 0.92 | 1.60 | 1.00 | 1.71 | 0.86 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
| Forfar goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 3.2% | 1.3% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 12% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.9% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.3% |
Annan AthleticForfarAnnan Athletic| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 21.0 | 21.6 | 20.5 |
| vs Stronger (32) | 9.1 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 20.3 | 22.1 | 18.1 |
| vs Similar (14) | 9.4 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 22.9 | 20.8 | 24.7 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 13.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 3.0 | 19.7 | 19.0 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 51% | 50% | 52% | 48% | 32% | 64% | 47% | 55% | 38% |
| % under line | 49% | 50% | 48% | 52% | 68% | 36% | 53% | 45% | 62% |
Forfar| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 25.0 | 24.1 | 25.9 |
| vs Stronger (26) | 9.1 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 25.4 | 23.5 | 27.6 |
| vs Similar (19) | 9.1 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 26.2 | 26.2 | 26.2 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 11.2 | 7.5 | 13.7 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 19.2 | 18.5 | 19.7 |
| % over line | 41% | 30% | 52% | 64% | 56% | 72% | 80% | 75% | 86% |
| % under line | 59% | 70% | 48% | 36% | 44% | 28% | 20% | 25% | 14% |
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 1.03 | 0.47 | 1.13 | 0.47 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 0.56 | 1.19 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.43 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.30 | 0.70 | 0.20 | 0.80 | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 1.25 | 0.00 | 4.00 | 0.67 | 0.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+10pp vs league) | |||||
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.27 | 0.87 | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.17 | 1.17 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.08 | 0.33 | 1.20 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.29 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+33pp vs league) | |||||
Annan Athletic| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 1.13 | 1.33 | 1.07 | 0.33 | 1.20 |
| vs Stronger (16) | 1.00 | 1.25 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 0.14 | 1.57 |
| vs Similar (10) | 0.70 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+13pp vs league) | |||||
Forfar| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.60 | 0.53 | 0.60 |
| vs Stronger (15) | 0.27 | 0.73 | 0.11 | 0.67 | 0.50 | 0.83 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.58 | 0.58 | 0.40 | 0.60 | 0.71 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+30pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 cards | 83.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 82.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 72.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 12/07/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 18/03/23 | A | 2-1 | |
| 07/01/23 | H | 0-2 | |
| 05/11/22 | A | 1-4 | |
| 03/09/22 | H | 2-1 | |
| 16/04/22 | A | 5-1 | |
| 15/01/22 | H | 2-2 |
Annan Athletic| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 4-0 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 2-3 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 3-1 |
Forfar| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/12/25 | H | 0-3 | |
| 29/11/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 22/11/25 | A | 1-4 | |
| 15/11/25 | A | 0-4 | |
| 08/11/25 | H | 1-1 | |
| 01/11/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 25/10/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 04/10/25 | A | 2-1 | |
| 27/09/25 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  East Kilbride | 36 | 69 | 58% | 1.9 | 77 | 46 | +31 | 3.4 | 92% | 69% | 50% | 10.4 | 58% | 5.6 | 83% | 26.4 | 81% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.3 | - |
| 2 |  Spartans | 36 | 64 | 50% | 1.8 | 60 | 39 | +21 | 2.8 | 83% | 53% | 28% | 9.4 | 47% | 4.0 | 58% | 19.9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.1 | - |
| 3 |  Clyde | 36 | 56 | 39% | 1.6 | 58 | 41 | +17 | 2.8 | 83% | 53% | 33% | 9.8 | 42% | 4.1 | 61% | 21.4 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | - |
| 4 | Forfar | 36 | 50 | 36% | 1.4 | 51 | 47 | +4 | 2.7 | 72% | 50% | 36% | 9.2 | 50% | 4.1 | 58% | 23.8 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.3 | - |
| 5 |  Stranraer | 36 | 47 | 33% | 1.3 | 46 | 46 | +0 | 2.6 | 78% | 50% | 28% | 11.0 | 63% | 4.3 | 66% | 22.5 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Elgin | 36 | 44 | 31% | 1.2 | 51 | 55 | -4 | 2.9 | 86% | 56% | 25% | 10.5 | 60% | 4.2 | 60% | 22.8 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Annan Athletic | 36 | 41 | 28% | 1.1 | 47 | 58 | -11 | 2.9 | 78% | 56% | 36% | 9.9 | 50% | 4.4 | 64% | 23.8 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 8 |  Dumbarton | 36 | 40 | 28% | 1.1 | 47 | 61 | -14 | 3.0 | 92% | 58% | 28% | 10.6 | 54% | 3.5 | 46% | 20.8 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.7 | - |
| 9 |  Edinburgh City | 36 | 39 | 28% | 1.1 | 45 | 72 | -27 | 3.2 | 86% | 69% | 44% | 9.5 | 51% | 5.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 10 |  Stirling | 36 | 38 | 25% | 1.1 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 3.0 | 83% | 58% | 36% | 11.4 | 58% | 4.1 | 58% | 20.7 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.8 | - |