Annan Athletic vs Forfar Result & Analysis

The match sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win yet leaving the draw and away win within striking distance. Home win probability sits at 39%, draw 27% and away win 33%. The predicted average goals for the game is 2.8, but the most likely total is two goals, a 25% chance. The single scoreline the model sees as most probable is 1-1, with a 12.9% probability, matching the actual 1-1 result that ended in a draw. Annan Athletic, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages two goals scored and one conceded, while Forfar, on the road, averages 1.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded against similar opposition. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 fouls at 78.8%, Under 5.5 cards at 75.3%, Over 19.5 fouls at 79.2%, Over 2.5 cards at 79.0% and Under 11.5 corners at 78.4%. Each pick is listed with its exact probability, and no other outcomes are given a win chance.

The pre-match favourite, a home win for Annan Athletic, failed to materialise as the match finished 1-1, a draw that extended their recent form to LLWLL after two straight defeats. The model had given the home win a 39% probability, but it was wrong. The model’s selection of Over 19.5 fouls hit, with a 79.2% chance, while Over 2.5 cards missed at 79.0%. Over 1.5 goals hit at 78.8%, Under 11.5 corners missed at 78.4%, and Under 5.5 cards hit at 75.3%. The expected total of 2.8 goals and the most likely 2-goal outcome were not achieved, underscoring the unpredictability of this fixture.